psuhoffman

Fringed

As of now the eps favors the warmer solution. But it’s not a case where there may or may not be a storm. The storm is there just the eps favors too much ridging in front and torches the temps. But watch that change in a dime if a future run decides to phase the ocean storm next week with the NS and suddenly there is a 50/50. Or it suddenly decides the NS vort in Canada next week is going to bomb. So imo it’s one of these situations that looks bad and isn’t likely but could flip on a dime if just one thing breaks our way. Ironically the gfs and euro flipped positions in the last 48 hours. Wrt the eps there was a huge spike in snow just southwest day 15. Looking at the members there were several “incoming” storms at day 15. Day 16 was going to be big. Lol

That’s some of the most redonculous blocking I’ve ever seen. All of Canada. Why it still manages to snow with a primary way west. I’d settle for just getting the 50/50 and have the storm stay under us. I like simple.

OK...this really is my last post... So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic. This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result. That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM. Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.

With a track this far north yes...The mountains in Vermont are also aligned good to get some upslope snows on Sunday after the low goes by and winds shift to the west. Might tack on another few inches in the higher elevations. Killington area might be all booked up. Forgot its a holiday weekend. This weekend gets crazy busy up there. Burlington VT is a really awesome town...and only 30 min drive to Stowe which will get absolutely blasted with snow the next few days from both systems and the upslope on Sunday. Trust me...they average about 300" of snow for a reason! Lake Placid NY is another good option...really nice town, Olympic venues to check out. North Conway NH is another good option more likely to have last minute lodging (because they have so damn much of it) but its further away.

Lake Placid isnt a bad option either

Last post for a while...have to get back to work This is the issue with the progression...EPS day 10 The timing of the ensembles is a little slower than the op but this shows the issue. The flow ahead of the trough is all out of the south. That is torching the mid levels. If we had some cold to work with in the mid's we could probably overcome the warmer surface temps...mix some cold down with a good track...but if we torch the mids and the surface...well its game over. So taking the 6z GFS that had snow as an example This wasnt perfect...it was still messy, the ridge would be better centered west not east of the Hudson Bay, but that 50/50 makes it work. Look at the flow now over us and to our northeast. Cutting off the southerly flow from torching us ahead of the trough. Plus it creates confluence to hold a high pressure in longer. This lead to the snowy solution on this run. The op euro though... That same feature is displaced where it can't help us and so the southerly flow torches us ahead of the system and there is no confluence to our north. It's close...but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. So how can we get to the look we need.... So there the energy that will be the day 10 threat is coming onshore in the west. We need to get one of those vorts numbered to amplify significantly and into the 50/50 spot. What happens on the euro op, 1 amplifies but remains cut off from the NS flow so its too far south, 3 gets absorbed into the TPV lobe and up into Greenland...2 washes out completely and 4 does end up where we need it but doesn't amplify enough and is way too weak to do much good. Get 3 and 1 to phase and pull them up into the 50/50 domain and that works. Get 2 and 4 to phase and amplify...get 4 to amplify by itself. None of those solutions would do us any good for snow BEFORE the day 10 threat... the flow is way to suppressive, could help give northern New England a light event...but any of those combo's would knock down the ridge to our northeast, create confluence and shunt the southerly flow ahead of the wave from destroying our thermal profile. Hope that explains what you were asking. Back to real life...

BTW wrt to the EPS, while the snow mean is unimpressive, there is a big spike just to our southwest day 14-15. A lot of members end day 15 about to blast us with a stj system, this time with cold locked in thanks to the lower heights to our northeast due to the storm day 10-12.

Euro depiction of slightly above normal temps between day 7-12 is reasonable given its stale cold air trapped under a ridge. But we can snow in that profile...especially if we can fix the ridge issue to our northeast allowing the mid levels to torch ahead of the wave. It's cooling again day 15 either way. GFS is too cold in the long range...we know that.

This look here day 13 actually fits the profile of our “positive AO big snowstorms”. Obviously we want a -AO. But when we scored snow with a +AO it was often in a look like this... Whatever happens with the day 10 threat the eps thinks that system migrated through the 50/50 region knocking down the ridge to our northeast. The fate of the day 10 seems to rest on the ability of some discreet wave before that to amplify just enough to knock down heights there ahead of the day 10 storm. A murkier proposition in the spread.

Eps isn’t there yet but trending the right way. Remember the Hudson Bay ridge look I posted wrt the 50/50. This is the h5 run to run change leading into the day 10 threat. This is exactly the trend we need. Lower the heights to our northeast and this becomes a classic snow look. After that the eps opens the door that the day 10 storm becomes a 50/50 for a threat later. Lots of possibilities with the current pattern progs. GEPS looked good day 10-15 also.

@RevWarReenactor North Conway NH is another good option. Lots to do there. Near Mt Washington. More lodging options. This weekend is likely to be very booked up. But it’s Further away. Burlington VT won’t get as much snow as the mountains but it’s a really awesome town. Dito Manchester VT.

@RevWarReenactor 12z euro update this is from the storm the next 48 hours this is from the weekend. VT still looks like the place to be given all that. Way more lodging than the areas in NY they get blasted. You can see how Albany is stuck in the screw zone SW of there. The PA stuff is mix to ice to rain...and not as much a sure thing. It’s going to be a great ski weekend up in VT that’s for sure! Speaking of...last night my shoulder was killing me from an injury I got skiing at Tremblant 20 years ago in College. I’m getting old...

That is about as good a 5 day mean that far out will ever look. We see higher ens means but it’s always either a close range threat or over a longer period that includes multiple threats.

Yea but with a primary unto Pittsburgh and a secondary near Annapolis it wouldn’t matter. But the exact track at day 10 doesn’t matter either. The ingredients we need are all there. We just need them to come togterget properly.

But do you know how rare what you just described is??? Ok so in the last 30 years there were only 18 storms of 6" or more at DCA. That is an average of 3 every 5 years...we have had 2 in the last 5 years so we are only 1 storm short of "normal". But the truth is those storms come in chunks during rare winters where the pattern is great. 4 times in the last 30 years DCA had multiple 6" snowstorms in a single year. 3 times in 1996, 3 times in 2002-3, 4 times in 2009-10, and 2 times in 2013-14. In the other 26 winters DCA had 6 total. So basically once or twice a decade we get a super rare great snowy winter where we are likely to get multiple 6" snowstorms....and the rest of the time we are very likely not to have any at all and if we get one its just a fluke, and only happens once every few years. Again...the problem is everytime we get a winter like the 26/30 crap years where we either get one lonely big snow or none you call it an anomaly when in reality that is just our normal. Our normal is crap. BTW if you eliminate the 6" storms that happened in March or were barely 6" followed by rain or an immediate warm up that melted it all within 24 hours DC only had 13 of those storms in 30 years... And if we take out 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 as the 4 "fluke" snowy years...only 3 such storms in the other 26 years. Basically, to summarize...every 7 years or so we get a fluke winter like 1996 or 2010 where its cold and snowy and we have results more typical of New England than DC...and in those years we tend to get multiple snowstorms like you describe. The other 80% of the time... we go several years between such storms...and when they do happen they are often flawed with a warmup right after or happen in March. What you are describing is a very rare thing in DC.

@RevWarReenactor with it being a holiday weekend if the resorts areas are booked you can still easily drive up from Rutland area. 20-30 mins. They keep the roads good. And there is stuff to do up at Killington. Some hopping bars with live music.

@RevWarReenactor keep an eye on today’s trends but based on recent runs VT might be your best bet to see a lot of snow otg and not worry about mixing. This total includes a 3-6” storm the next 48 hours but still. Im using the op because the kuchera shows the ratios in VT will be good. The 10–1 maps show they get 3-5” from the weekend storm but it’s more likely to be 4-8” or more plus they have snow on the ground already. And there are lodging options near the ski resorts. It’s only another 1-2 hours from Albany. Check out lodging near Killington, Okemo, Stratton. Stay out of the valleys like Rutland, they get a nasty shadow effect. I’ve been there when Killington gets 20” and Rutland had 4-5”. That snow south of Albany is mixed with ice and subject to further cuts if this keeps trending north. And those places have no snow currently either. Just my 2 cents. Good luck!

places in Vermont just had some snow, and are getting 2-4" before this event...then will get more. So if you are going just for snow...going another couple hours to see a LOT more snow makes sense imo.

When I said Quebec I meant QUEBEC...yall thought I was kidding.

Here is how the look for around day 10-12 has shifted on the GEFS (EPS is similar). Now this time we are comparing a day 15 look to day 10..(last time it was day 10 to 7) so the shifts are going to be a bit more drastic...but still the large scale longwave pattern wasn't awful. GEFS from a few days ago This was a very cold look, big EPO ridge with cross polar flow directed right into the eastern US. But it's also a dry one, and I mentioned that a few days ago when this look was being tossed out. This was likely to be very cold but very dry. The other 2 major features were the PV situated across the NAO domain across the pole into the Kara region, eastern trough, trough in the Pac NE of Hawaii. This is how it has shifted So again it was too far west with the pac trough...this shift pressed the epo ridge into more of a Hudson Bay ridge. It was correct with its NAM depiction and the trough in the east. Now this has a positive and a negative. It cuts off the cross polar flow, so this is a much less cold look. But this is also much more likely to get something to amplify into the southeastern US. That blocking ridge across Canada will cut off arctic cold but there is a shot of cold into the east ahead of this...and so long as that is trapped under the block and not scoured out that usually is good enough in January. Ideally I would like a 50/50...that could end up being the big issue here if too much ridging in the northeast allows the system to cut... but this still has potential imo. This is a composite of 16 warning level snowfalls at BWI with a Hudson Bay centered ridge. The obvious thing missing is the 50/50 low. But that is a composite, not ALL 16 of those had a 50/50, but most hence the mean. But at this range a feature like that could be missed, perhaps an unseen vort next week, Ralphs clipper, can bomb out into the 50/50 space, or perhaps the day 11 storm does cut but becomes the 50/50 for the day 14 threat. Either way, this look is way closer to a big snow look than the one a few days ago. It's not nearly as cold...and it could end up a rain look also...but you have to play with fire to have a nice BBQ! If you did want a week of frigid cold dry weather...I apologize, things are not moving in the right direction for that.

@Ji @Ralph Wiggum Was going to post this earlier this morning then got distracted with work. But this is an example of how the overall long range guidance was right...but discreet features within the longwave pattern that are not discernible at long range will determine snow/no. For next week...the period Monday to Thursday...from long range it looked promising Ridge bridge across the top, western ridge, eastern trough...this look could definitely work The overall longwave pattern was pretty close but some details have shifted this to an unfavorable (for us) look Still have the ridge bridge over the top and eastern trough but the system crashing into the Pac NW is shifting the western ridge too far east and that shifts the eastern trough too far southeast...this is now a good look for a possible snow for places in the southeast, maybe the outer banks. Doesn't mean they get snow...but they have a chance which is super rare in itself. The slight error on a specific feature that will not be resolved at day 10-15 shifted this from a very good look for snow to a cold/dry one for us. The guidance wasn't wrong or bad...we just can't see the details that will determine our fate wrt snow from that range. Only the general longwave pattern. Even in a good pattern we need luck with the discreet features. Only a relatively narrow area will actually get snow in any given (short) time period. The coverage of snow with a storm isnt that large typically. Or the difference between a wave amplifying or getting squashed isnt that big on a hemispheric pattern scale. Too many people assume if we get the good pattern it means we get snow. Not the case.

There is "slightly" too much ridging to the northeast, the h5 trough amplifies slightly too far west, the airmass is slightly too warm... a lot of very small imperfections combine to ruin it on this specific op run, but like I said yesterday this setup continues to be a "Ohio cow's fart in the right direction" from being a big snowstorm for us. There have been plenty of similar situations where at LONG leads the guidance thought what ended up a big snowstorm was a cold rain event. I will take my chances on this setup. It's the best one we have had yet this winter.

Thank you! I just wish I spent more time explaining why it was going to snow instead of why it wasn't...

That precip you are looking at isn't the main result of the primary low back in Wisconsin though. It's the result of the WAA , which is primarily driven by the low and mid level winds ahead of the trough into the cold air. This was the last really good run of the GFS from 6z yesterday and look at where the mid level winds were directed.... now look at the primary low location Now look at last nights crap awful run....the primary low is much further southeast...but it doesn't matter Because look where the mid level winds that will be the main culprit for any WAA precip have shifted The flow that was directed right into us on the guidance that showed a healthy WAA thump of snow is now directed well to our northwest and that is because of the increase in the ridging and sharper trough alignment not the primary low. The precip from the primary low is irrelevant to us, by the time that gets here we will have lost the mid levels and likely the surface. Whatever snow we get will be from WAA out ahead of the primary system. But the winds that would cause that are being directed away from us by the ridge/trough alignment. We would need a radical shift in the primary low track for that to due us any good...yea if it did track through central Indiana into northern Ohio that would likely redirect those winds towards us as it would indicate a radical shift south of all the features, including the mid level wind flow. But it would be the shift if that wind flow not the primary that would help. And that is a HUGE shift...were talking like 150-200 miles in only 3-4 days. Not sure how likely that is. Seeing the mid level winds shift back to a more favorable configuration is more likely...but only slightly. So a shift south of the primary if it is associated with a weaker ridge and flatter solution would be good...but a shift in the mslp absent the improvements we need at the mid levels ahead of the system would do us no good really unless its a 250 mile shift in track.