psuhoffman

This is what I am chasing at this point...

Depends what our expectations are... if we are looking for some epic save where we manage to end up above climo for the entire winter just from snow Feb 15 onward...then yea that is incredibly unlikely. Only happened a few times in 100 years and only twice in the last 30. 1993 and 2015. But if we are simply looking for SOME snow and to creep out of the "total dreg dumpster fire" category winter like 2002/2008/2012 and into the just "typical" not good year like most years other than the rare 96,03,10,14 type years... that is more realistic. Still not "likely" but not as super lottery type odds. Getting a late "save" that brings us out of total "dumpster fire" into "just regular bad" year is more common. Something like 2018, 2009, 2007, 1999, 1976, 1972. Those are all years where BWI went into February with very little or no snow and then ended up at least closer to "median" by the end from either one lucky storm or a period of some snowfalls. That is a lot more common and a more realistic.

They did...I didn’t include every example. I would say 2015 and 2016 were the rare cases where DC beat avg without an otherwise epic winter. Although the pattern in 2016 was pretty awesome just didn’t live up to potential imo. 2015 was a true lucky result.

DCA chances of above mean snowfall is only about 30% any year. So it’s not shocking that tossing 2/3 of winter doesn’t help the odds. It’s very rare for DC to beat avg without it being one of the rare anomaly winters like 1996/2003/2010/2014. Typically DCA either finishes way above avg or below. What DC should be hunting for is to get to hear a median winter which is about 10” and happens much more often with a bad start in non great wintes. That’s a more realistic goal imo.

Also wrt the mjo...it wouldn’t matter much if it managed to sneak into 8 at low amp as the wave dies for 1-2 days. The fact that it went to 3 stdv in phase 4/5 then dies as it reaches cold phases is the important thing. A strong wave in the MC will have done the dirty work ushering in an awful pattern. It will take an equally strong influence to counteract that. If the mjo continues to go strong through warm and weak through cold phases that’s a loss. Plus there is some feedback circular nature to it. When the mjo is working in symmetry with the other influences that cause the typical phase 8 central pac wave (central/west based nino) we see the canonical pattern. But when the mjo is out of sync with the background state the response is often muted some even when it’s in cold phases. We see the same in reverse in good years. A weak wave into warm phases isn’t usually a death sentence to winter after a strong cold phase wave. If we are in a cold base state a weak mjo wave won’t always derail that. The good news is with the mjo looking to be a weak influence ahead if we do get a change in other factors it won’t be counteracting that. But the mjo alone isn’t going to save us. We need either the central pac pattern or the high latitude one to flip and it’s apparent those are being driven by more than just the MJO.

His video was good but I think he made more of the VM than it is. We’ve had very cold -EPO winters in a VM pattern. 2014 was one. I even think the example map he used to compare a VM to a PDO that was 2014 on the left. Lol The mjo spiking so high into warm phases in the core of winter was a bigger deal. But again that’s an effect not a pure cause. But we can see the same effect we get in most warm winters where the mjo goes ape into warm phases and can barely sniff cold ones. That warm pool in the north pac has little to do with that. The energy released from the tropics is several magnitudes greater than water in the north pac. The configuration of the mid latitudes was all wrong to transport heat into the high latitudes and disrupt the PV this year.

The eps weeklies eject the vortex out of AK into central N America. Also weakens the NAM back closer to a workable look. Sets up a gradient pattern but with us on the right side for early to mid February. Best look is probably this week If that’s right that would imply we’re in line for waves and on the right side of the boundary. I know it’s worthless but I suppose it’s slightly better it looks good simply because when it’s an epic disaster that’s when it’s always right.

Lol...they’re actually good I’m just not sure anyone gives a crap.

Btw wrt the mjo...I don’t think it’s going to save us but I also don’t think it’s going to kill us in Feb. After a brief nudge into 6 (and even that signal is conflicted if you look at the actual convection, it likely goes null. Other factors are likely to drive the bus in Feb imo. Doesn’t mean they will be any better but I suppose they can’t be any worse so there’s that.

Should I bother to give a summary of the weeklies?

First drinks on me!

I apologize, I assumed you were at a certain level. Since it’s quite clear you are not I’ll take it down a notch and try again. No you did not physically assault him. But within the online community attack can have non physical meanings. You took a post of his, twisted it’s meaning, then made an obnoxious comment. And yes I do worse sometimes but I own it. When someone is being as asshat I will occasionally “attack” them. But what I never do is then try to play this “who me” game or worse, some passive aggressive victim nonsense. You’ve done it with multiple people multiple times and it’s pathetic.

The 1960s were pretty snowy even there. She probably remembers that and thought that was “normal”.

When it snowed hard we’re you on 7 south between Rutland and Bennington? There are some high spots in there that get pasted good. If you chase on a non holiday weekend you can typically find lodging up in the mountains that do better.

Context matters Tom wasn’t comparing the nino in 1998 to enso now. He was comparing the pattern. And you twisted his words as you often do. Feb 1998 EPS Next week The nino strength isn’t relevant, if the pattern is similar the results will likely be similar. When he brought up 1983, again, he was referencing the pattern much of that winter. And yes we had one anomalous snowstorm that winter but it was during this... so if an Uber NAO block like that shows up then you have a case, but Tom was pretty clear he finds the prospect of strong NAO blocking very unlikely and if we get any it won’t be until very late in the season. Absent that block we get what we got the rest of that winter in such a pattern. All he proved was that the “look” coming up has tended to be too warm for snow historically.

Rain

When the background base state is unfavorable the mjo (even if it makes it into cold phases) tends to be ineffective. It’s more effective when it’s in coordination with the background state. If we get a flip it’s unlikely to be solely mjo driven.

Im not saying we can’t have a pattern flip. But imo if we do it won’t be mjo initiates (just like 2015 wasn’t).

@RevWarReenactor how was Vermont???

I’m away 2 days and forget how everything works. Thankfully I cought it before I left it in the wrong thread.

@Mersky what happened to all your CFS mjo phase 8/1 posts??? I was excited to return to an mjo cold phase bliss pattern! oh snap... ^that happened....nevermind. Carry on. Oh btw, have fun attacking isotherm in the NYC sub. I’m sureeee that will end well for you.

@mappyCongrats!!! Well deserved

Like @Bob Chill said this is a long shot. Not totally impossible but not a high probability setup. Don’t get your hopes up. If we get lucky with an absolutely perfect h5 track and the storm bombs just right (that’s really our only chance) just thank our lucky stars.

2000 was a better example of a winter where the pattern was awful 90% of the time but we scored the one week it got right As for an HECS...I think what you are really asking is were there ever any HECS level storms in a similar setup to this week...because the surface matters too...there were a couple pretty big snows (not HECS but MECS level) with a Hudson Ridge but they all featured a significantly colder airmass to work with and a monster 50/50. Were there any 10"+ storms in the cities with this look and this type of airmass...no. There were some decent events though, not a lot...but enough to say its not completely impossible...but there were no 12"+ storms in DC/Baltimore with this look. That is asking a bit much given the situation. If somehow we managed to get 3-6" of wet snow into the cities that should be considered a massive win in this situation.

I assume you mean Feb 1987 because nothing happened in 1988 but 87 there was a foot of snow at IAD from a storm where it was 48 the day before and 46 the day after...the snow hit overnight mostly. That storm featured great blocking with a 50/50 heading into the event...but a stale rotting airmass and it was late February...so boundary temps with sunshine were torching...but mid and upper level temps were in much better shape than this coming situation. That was kind of the late February version of Feb 2010. There are some examples of "similar" patterns to this working, and most were mid winter. This is the composites of 16 warning level events at BWI with a hudson bay ridge. On the mean notice a 50/50 signature...that is the main thing we are lacking here. But there were a few within that set that also lacked a 50/50 but when I looked at most of those examples the antecedent airmass wasn't as awful as the one we are working with now. THe main problem is the ridging this week ends up centered a bit further southeast than where we need it. But there are some examples of similar "setups" that managed to work to some degree and get some wet snow into the cities and a decent thump NW. BUt for every one that works there were a lot more that didnt with this type of airmass. As you say its the most "interesting" look we have had so far...but that is a pretty low bar. It's far from a great look...but its not impossible. THe threat after has a better chance assuming guidance isn't completely wrong about how the pattern evolves. The key is getting this system to knock down the heights to our northeast and create a slightly better situation wrt the antecedent airmass for the NEXT one. A best case scenario would be to get a perfect H5 track and luck our way to a wet snow thump event from the first system...then have it pull in enough "somewhat colder" air to set up the next one.