psuhoffman

I don't even care if the storm this weekend hits...its a super long shot hail mary...I just want the possibility of it to linger long enough for the next legit threat to get closer before everyone has to turn their attention 100% to that...so we don't have to have these melt down's with every minor adjustment at day 8/9/10 ....

Shhhhh people are too busy having a melt down pity party

@RevWarReenactor I also think one issue is with HOW our snow typically comes...and it simply doesn't jive with how you want it to come. But its the reality. Our snowiest weeks statistically are between January 20th and March 15th. And it's not even close...the odds of snow the first 15 days of March are DOUBLE the odds of snow the first half of January even...and 3 times higher than the odds of snow the second half of December! But you pretty much toss any snow we get after Feb 20th because of "sun angle" and melting and all that jazz. And yea...snow in later Feb and Mar will likely melt fast and have trouble sticking to roads and all that. You are right. that is what late snow is like...but you are tossing like 30% of our snowfall when you do that. If you break the winter up into chunks...Feb 15-Mar15 would be the second snowiest part of winter behind Jan 15-Feb 15 and its not even close...way way way snowier than anything before Jan 15th. So the issue is a LOT of our snow comes late...and that is our normal climo...and you dont like that. I get the feeling you want a lot of snow to come in December and early January...and get frustrated every year when we get to mid january with crappy results...but the truth is that is our normal climo. The odds of 3" of snow the first half of December is ONLY 13%. The odds the second half of Dec are even worse...only 6%!. The odds of 3" of snow between Jan 1-15th and only...13%. They go way way up after that and stay high until mid March...but you are already frustrated by the time our chances of snow increase late January every year. That is part of this imo...

1. Not 5 years. LAST year was the 7th snowiest DC winter in the last 30 years! Stop saying you have to go back 5-6 years. LAST year was a snowy winter in DC by DC standards. 2. The storm last January wasn’t a warmish storm or period. It came during a 6 day stretch where DCA recorded highs in the 30s when the avg is 43*. The day of the snow the high was 32. It was a cold storm and period by DC standards. Snow was on the ground for several days.

I’m NOT saying the ICON is right. Just that these relatively minor adjustments for a day 5-6 track are probably within normal fluctuations run to run and not necessarily a model trend in the icon. It’s been bouncing around a somewhat similar idea for a while.

It’s likely these day 5-6 bounces your seeing in the icon is just run to run noise within a not that accurate Model. Every jump west or east isn’t a trend.

You continue to exaggerate. Let’s break down your points... 1. Only if you make up the number for one of the 4. This winter is only about 58% through DC snow climo. In years where DC entered Feb with less than an inch of snow it still hit 5”+ the rest of the way the majority of time. So history does not support your assumption DC doesn’t get 2.4” the rest of winter. And if they do you have absolutely no statistical case left so your position is tenuous at best. 2. Ok let’s not go back 6 years let’s go back 1 year. Last year was an above average GOOD snowfall year in DC. The 7th snowiest year in the last 30! 3. I’m not going back 10 years to banner seasons. From 2014-2016 was the snowiest 3 year stretch in the last 40 years and it just ended 4 years ago! Since then we have had 1 awful 1 typical crappy and 1 good snowfall year. That’s a normal split for any 3 year period. Especially following the best 3 years of the last 40 years!!!

That look at the very end is far from great but it’s more workable than we’ve had. We’re looking to get lucky at this point. Any sustained good pattern is unlikely given the pacific pattern this year. Maybe in March. But that look could work if we get an ejection of tightly spaced progressive waves. Something like March 2015. There was a 2-4” snow in Feb 2018 that followed that progression also. I could list off more. But a lot of times those type waves hit just north of us like the one in February 2017 orearly Feb 2014 where caboose waves gave south central PA 6-10” and DC/BWI rain. The risk we get skunked is there and it’s higher the further SE you go. That’s not a good look at all if you’re in Richmond or NC. But it’s a look we sometimes snow in. Kinda crappy is better then totally crappy.

Getting my coffee now! I think the idea this amplified more is still alive but I understand the people on the coastal plain being blah about it. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because of the lack of cold. It will be very hard to keep the boundary layer cold enough absent an absolutely perfect deform thump east of the fall line.

Because of the way the stj wave interacts with the NS it’s like a miller b. The stj wave is just an extension of the trough. It has no closed circulation and light precip initially. Might as well pretend it doesn’t exist because it sent get the job done until it phases and starts to bomb. Once that happens and it develops a healthy circulation with a commahead then it could work. But that process simply happens just north of DC. Kind of miller b like in that respect.

Everyone needs to come crash up here for the weekend. that highlights stormtrackers point though. When it’s struggling to get to 32 at 1100 feet with that track...at sea level it’s going to be a struggle. Only way is to get it to bomb and deform the crap out of 95. 1” hr+ rates would be needed.

Yea...last year wasn’t bad though. DC got a 10” storm. That’s pretty rare.

They seem to take themselves too seriously imo. Also kinda dead compared to here.

We’ve lost some old regulars in here too the last few years. Hardly ever see zwytz or Ian anymore. But we picked up some new ones and we had more to spare maybe. Hopefully it’s not a larger trend.

I have no idea I don’t ever look at it.

Progressive bias so tuck that in and amp it to 980!

Why is the philly sub so dead? I know many years ago on the old forums when there would be one big storm thread there were some good Philly area Mets and contributors. What happened? Just random chance or did something go down I don’t know about?

2.4” at DCA

better pattern = better probabilities.

Try not to put so much effort into it.

You are exaggerating. In that 6 year period there was 44.4”. In this 6 year period even if we don’t get another flake this winter there has been 69.2”! The only way you have a case is using a weird specific number of years you cherry picked but most importantly you include this year and assume we don’t get 2.4” more this season. Odds are we do and then what? And if we don’t then yes this was the worst 4 years stretch. But not the worst 1 or 2 or 3 or 5 year stretch. What does it mean anyways? This has just been similar to every other snow drought we have at least once every decade except the 1960s.

Ensemble forecasting has increased accuracy with general longwave patterns out to day 10 or so...but the problems really come when people try to pin down details (like the exact location of a low) in the 5-10 day period.

I think the first wave goes north...but a trailing wave on the front is a possibility

You shouldn't be using single op runs at long range for synoptic scale details. If you are...that is user error not model error. But I am not talking LONG range...forecasts were atrocious even at 48 hours before we had the aid of NWP. HUGE busts at 24-48 hours are MUCH less frequent now compared to any time in the past. You are always focused on what the limitations of guidance are. And there are limitations...we cannot model the atmosphere perfectly even with computers. But the fact is they are helping to make forecasts much better than they would be without NWP...and that is the bar. Not are they perfect...but do they make things better...and they do.