psuhoffman

@Bob Chill ummmmmmmm

It was...of the handful of times that pattern flipped it was mostly from retrogression not progression. However, those composites were mostly years the pac locked in longer than a week so it could be more common when the pac ridge is transient.

Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC.

@Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us...

The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window. I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set. But its obvious now the anomalous central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge. It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time. That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters. We seem to have dodged that bullet.

Sorry this is kinda old news but I was busy trying to explain habeas corpus to teenagers... last nights EPS towards the end was moving towards the look we want to get snow in a -EPO+NAO regime. The look before that for a few days with a huge PNA/EPO ridge is a dry look. A huge full lat western ridge overwhelms the pattern and pushes the trough axis too far east for anything to turn the corner usually. What we want is this look...This is the composite of 13 warning level snowfalls for at least a portion of our region. We want the epo ridge building over the top compressing the flow over the CONUS and and an elongated positively tilted trough SW to NE. This allows enough return flow in the SE to get waves up the east coast. Get enough STJ and it can be a really good pattern. Too much SE ridge and it can be frustrating but assuming the EPO ridge flattens the flow enough it works. The EPS was moving towards that look at the end.

Don’t have time to go into my full thought now but I liked a lot of what I saw from last nights runs. But while the pattern is supportive of a frozen event in the long range, it’s not the kind of pattern that’s good for picking up the details of a discreet event at long leads. Too progressive for that. Waves that look good at day 10 may turn to crap and things not even on the radar will pop up at day 5.

That perfectly summarized what I thought I had said clearly enough. Thanks

In the mountains. Or in March where the boundary layer can be warm due to solar before a storm. But thats not really a consistent option here in mid winter. Because there tends to be ridging ahead of storms it would require storms constantly bombing to our southeast and pulling in cold. Not realistic. One fluke storm maybe. Not a pattern. The closest thing is a -NAO pattern like 2010 where it’s not really “cold” when it’s not snowing. Not warm though either. Just not that cold.

I agree...but I do chuckle when going into an advertised cold/dry look people say “well we need the cold to have a chance” or “I’ll take me chances with the cold”. Then a few days into it when it becomes apparent we will waste the cold with 10 days of no precip they are like “this sucks we finally get cold and there is no precip for 2 weeks” when the pattern said that was coming from a mile away. Not saying that’s how we go this time just saying I’ve seen that show before.

That's why I made that post earlier today saying I would prefer a -EPO -PNA look. That eliminates the cold/dry issue...we would need to get the SE ridge suppressed enough but that setup leads to a snowy outcome more often than the full latitude EPO/PNA ridge. It's very hard to get something to "turn the corner" in that look. Its usually cold/dry. This is assuming a +NAO for both scenarios...

One notable improvement on the EPS through day 12, better depth of the trough in the east. That is important because its often what differentiated the "wins" from the "fails" with past similar patterns.

eps looks very "Feb 2015" at day 12.

It was 2 different bad patterns though. Dec 20-Jan 1 was a AK vortex -AO pattern. We have been in a pattern flux this week as the NAM flips very positive and the PV centers itself more over the pole/NAO side. During the transition we got some luck as a transient ridge traversed the PNA space...actually the ridge that will get here this weekend and lock in for a week. So we had one bad pattern...and transition week...and now another bad pattern... after that it looks like the next pattern might be more hospitable to sustained cold and snow threats but its too soon to know for sure.

All guidance is starting to hit the EPO block hard

There is some divergence in the long range regarding the PNA. The euro is trending towards a PNA ridge...where the GEPS and GFS continue a -PNA. If the NAO remains positive and we get an EPO ridge (all 3 agree on that) I would actually rather a -PNA. 2015 was a great example of a -EPO+PNA+NAO working but there are more examples of that pattern failing. Feb 2015 Feb 1995 AFTER the one snowfall early in the month that took place BEFORE the EPO ridge set up. I could show more examples but frankly 2015 was an anomaly...historically a full latitude PNA/EPO ridge with a +NAO is a dry progressive pattern and when storms do happen they tend to have to amplify so much to come up they end up cutting. On the other hand...there are more examples of a -EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern working. The key would be the depth of the trough and the alignment. Best example of a win with that look... Feb 2003 An example where our area did OK...but the best results were just North Feb 1994 An example of a fail in that look Feb 1989 You can clearly see the depth of the trough determined the outcome. 1989 the trough was simply not deep enough to keep the boundary south of us. 1994 the boundary ended up right through our region and 2003...well we all remember that. But there are more examples of that pattern leading to a snowy outcome here than the 2015 EPO/PNA ridge look. All of this is predicated on the NAO remaining positive. If the NAO goes negative either look suddenly becomes favorable and none of this matters. The details of all of this remain outside reliable forecast range...this is just to give a profile of what the different options look like. But a SW to NE oriented trough through North America under an EPO ridge with a suppressed SE ridge is a very good look to get progressive waves running at us with cold available, provided the trough ends up suppressed enough by the EPO ridge. The full latitude western ridge look has more mixed results with a couple "wins" March 1993 and Feb 2015 to name some, but a lot of total fails also.

some people KNOW what's going to happen...I am not one of them.

If the monster EPO ridge on all guidance is correct we do not "NEED" the AO/NAO to tank...but we do need it to pull back towards neutral or slightly positive which is what the EPS and GEPS is showing. The GEFS keeps swinging wildly between flipping the NAM negative or not but its been a hot mess lately and should be given much less weight until it starts showing some consistency. The GEPS and EPS especially have been much more consistent with a common progression/theme to the pattern evolution. The EPS idea of a neutral AO combined with that EPO ridge and some PNA ridging is just fine. It's not a HECS look but its a cold look and if we keep getting waves coming across with the active STJ and I would take my chances in that pattern.

By that time...phase 3/4 become more friendly also...and that is important if a wave fires in the IO it gives us more time in cold phases. A death near the dateline followed by a new wave initiation off Africa would give us a nice long extended run without MJO destructive interference. I have been skeptical of favorable MJO help. I am still not dancing in the streets but less pessimistic than a week ago. I know the bias in the guidance is to kill off waves early...but the last wave did die before cold phases, the waters near the MC are boiling, and the guidance was suggesting a stall/loop there which isn't unheard of (last year). But recent developments would favor wave propagation...but I will feel better once those projections get within 10 days. For now things look favorable for a colder period late January into February. Snow...TBD

A little but it wasn’t that far off from the pna ridge/+AO/NAO composite look. We definitely got lucky that a nice vort was passing at exactly the right time given how transient the pna ridge was. Our window was like 12 hours. But there were only 6 of those type storms so it’s not a high probability look but not unheard of. Of course yesterday’s storm wouldn’t show up in my sample because it wasn’t significant in the cities. In our areas we can luck our way to some snow a lot easier in flawed setups.

This is the snowfall recorded by the coop in Millers a few miles east of us. We have a little elevation advantage but I find their totals to be close to ours most storms. The second to last number is snowfall, the last is depth. They had snowcover from the storm on Jan 4th until sometime after the one on March 18th!

93/94 had such a crazy sharp gradient between places that had a ton of snow and not much. You didn’t have to go far. The closest coop to here in Millers had 44” that winter. That’s only a little above normal but they had snow otg from early January until late March. An incredible run. It seemed like every storm here was like 4” of snow followed by lots of ice. Places not far north of here stayed all snow and had 70”+ that winter. Every storm followed a similar track vs 2015 and 2014 which shifted the boundary around enough to get more regions into the fun. One caution, 2014 was the best but it had a helpful AO much of the time and even some NAO help in periods. If we get the ridge bridge look on the gefs and geps 2014 could be a good match. But if the AO stays positive like the Euro that puts us into a pattern more like Feb 1993, 1994, and 2015. 2015 was the best and it could go down that way again, but the other 2 had a lot of frustration with a string of snowstorms missing just to the northwest. But that look is still light years better than anything lately but given our choice the GEFS look with the epo AND tanking NAM is the better option to get everyone into the action imo.

It won’t last long with that look up top, especially as we head later in winter.

@Bob Chill gefs would just need another 48 hours. That epo ridge among with the developing -AO would beat down the SE ridge. I don’t care if that takes 17 days v 14 days so long as that’s real I’m happy. It’s still early January. I said a week ago when the disgusting look showed up that if it locked in more than 2 weeks or so that puts us into really ugly analog territory and we wanted to be able to see the “other side” by mid January. It’s only the 8th and the other side might be showing. That’s totally fine by me.

This is the euro mjo from a week ago It simply wasn’t going out far enough to get to where it is now. 4 days ago it was getting it into 6, not quite as far as yesterday but the difference was marginal and not close to the definitive trend towards 8 you are making it. You are taking some pretty big liberties to say “guidance is trending towards cold phases”. The last wave did not make it into phases 8/1. Before that we had a standing wave in 2/3. The euro does often tend to kill waves early. That is a bias I’ve noticed. The gfs looked even worse though. Somehow you don’t even post or mention that! There is also disagreement among experts. Some think this will progress into the pac and others are nervous about a stall in the MC. I am open to all options because the final outcome falls outside our high probability forecast range. I am happy for you that you feel as confident as you do in how everything will play out I don’t ever have that level of confidence in the mjo or anything else at 2+ weeks lead time. You also keep misinterpreting analysis as forecast. When I say “if we don’t get an epo ridge or the NAM state to change we’re screwed” that isn’t “he said we’re screwed”. I said we need to look for either the epo or NAM state to flip because we need one of those 2 factors to change. Yes if neither does then we ARE screwed. But you jump past the “if” and “or” and derive a definitive forecast instead of seeing the analysis of permutations. For the last 10 days the cpc pattern analogs have been dominated by some awful years. 1952, 1989, 2002, 2008 for example have all littered the top pattern comps day after day. You can think that’s no big deal if you want. And there are examples of comps that flipped better also and I presented those as well but they were the minority. But I also pointed out the bad years were mostly Nina’s and this is not. I gave both the good and bad options, and the bad ones outnumbered the good. That’s not my fault it’s just reality. Maybe we beat the odds this year. But the numbers are what they are. I presented what the current projected look lead to in past examples. It wasn’t good most of the time. If you have an issue with that sorry. My style is to present what could to right AND what could go wrong. I look at the fail scenarios and what to look out for. But I’m not a pessimist. I’ve often been bullish on snow chances when it’s warrented. I was bullish on this winter a month ago. I’ve been bullish on a big storm look from long range before. But only when there are legitimate good signs. I don’t blow smoke. If you only want to hear what could go right there are plenty of people that will make you feel warm and fuzzy no matter what the pattern is like JB.