psuhoffman

Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut.

Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same

Sorry what was the last run? Ridge in east? Weeks 3/4/5/6 32 day temps starting day 14

They were pretty much a carbon copy of the last run. They continue what that day 15 look is into March.

At least the look at the end of the eps would get cold air near to us. That’s about all I can say positive. The issues continue. No sign of a AO or NAO flip and pac ridge continues to be centered southwest of where we need it.

It's 10 days away... stop worrying about exactly where the rain/snow line is. The GFS has that same storm suppressed south of us. You do realize that the areal coverage of significant snow in a synoptic system is relatively narrow on the larger scale and WAY within the margin or error with a day 10 run. In other words...to be close enough to have a chance to get the storm...we have to be close enough to the rain snow line that rain is a risk from that range. The GFS suppresses the whole thing south of us. The Euro would likely end up mostly rain. But both are within the envelope of a normal error at that range. What is more useful is analyzing the type of pattern. There is no blocking. So an over amped solution like the euro would risk a cut. But there will be more cold around next week than this week. And the trough looks to dig pretty far east so something in between the euro and the gfs would work...getting a phase slightly further east than the euro and we get a snowstorm. There is no way in hell the euro is going to stick the landing wrt the exact location of the low track from this range...so worrying about that is a total waste of time.

This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind. The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right. Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern.

well... technically either would be better...if it were to speed up it could phase with the initial STJ wave, if it slows down it could create enough space behind the STJ wave for a secondary development. It's about wave separation and right now the timing is no good...but right now its trending closer to the "slow down" option so that becomes our better bet.

@showmethesnow What do you think of the possibility of secondary coastal developments in response to the NS energy? It's been trending that way in the upper levels but 12z was the first real hints of that possibility at the surface. Maybe there is still enough lead time to get the adjustments we would need for that scenario...the lead wave idea is pretty much deal imo.

This new development bears watching...that lead wave is pretty much a non starter. Too much working against it... not very strong, no cold air to aid in WAA....you can't get good WAA precip without cold to "resist" the WAA and cause the lift...way out ahead of the NS trough. But the NS energy has been sneakily trending better and if it were somehow to pop a redevelopment that could suddenly become a player. Right now we are stuck in between 2 good options...and with our luck that is where we end up, but this is the first time guidance has really picked up on this new option. I think the idea of popping a little trailing wave associated with the upper level energy has more potential. Still not a good bet...but its worth keeping an eye on.

The improvements at h5 are being offset by the fact that they are trailing behind the STJ wave....that initial wave is way out ahead of the upper support to the point that the GFS tries to develop another wave associated with the upper level support but there isn't enough energy left behind by the first wave. We need the energy to be consolidated with the upper energy that comes through Saturday Night into Sunday...instead the STJ wave ran out ahead on its own...that would work if it had ejected whole but its too weak and the flow isn't amplified enough for that to work.

Just tell me when the passive aggressive "who me" part of this repeat episode gets here... or phase 8 of the MJO... where did all your CFS charts go I was enjoying those daily updates

@RevWarReenactor wrt location... its not fair to jump around because while DC did better than you with last winter...you did way better than DC in 2018. So its a trade off...if you want to use coop sites around you to compare your results to your local climo we can do that...but we can't jump around selectively year to year from location to location. For the record though...that January storm was a cold storm, it wasnt a wet snow slush that didnt stick to roads event that you keep claiming. A lot of the snow fell overnight when it was in the 20s in DC. The next day the high was only 32 degrees. You must be thinking of a different event.

@RevWarReenactor I hear all your arguments. I am not saying you are "wrong" I am just offering another perspective. Basically I am NOT saying this is normal. What I am saying is there is no such thing as a "normal" snowfall winter here. Our climo is to have wildly divergent winter patterns...the majority of the time that pattern is SUCKY for snow...and we are too far south. If you average all the patterns together...we are south of the mean location of the rain/snow line. Add in that sometimes when we do get the right combo to suppress the jet near us...we don't always get a storm. It could go south of us...or out to sea. So the fact is we go long long stretches without any snow at all or not very much. And then we get periods with a lot...either a whole season like 1996 or 2014 or an epic period within a season like 2000. What you call "normal" is just both the good and bad periods averaged together. But the reality is we don't have a "normal" winter. We have a mix of good and bad and everything in between...but if we tried to categorize what our normal breakdown is its about 25% good, 25% mediocre, 50% bad. That is "normal". So what I am saying is to have a year like this...or a string of them, is normal in the longer sense. We had several good years in the last 10...but they happened to come in a string of them together...and now we are getting a string of bad ones together...that is just how it works sometimes. I am looking at it on a longer term scale than you. For the last 10 years we are actually running above normal on snow. We are very likely to get another big year in the next few. That is not just playing the odds...given we are hitting solar minimum soon the odds are we start getting some blocking soon and that drastically increases our chances of a big year. The years leading up to a solar minimum tend to have a +NAO and that stacks the odds for bad years...so in a way we are kind of seeing that play out. In that way it is "normal". I am simply saying there is no such thing as "normal" not that this is "normal" in the shorter scale. In the longer scale...having runs of good and bad winters is our normal climo. You have to step back and see the big picture. I didnt hear people complaining during 2014 and 2015 that all that snow wasn't normal. I dont remember people complaining during the 2016 HECS that all that snow wasnt normal. If all we ever had was years like 2014 and then "normal" years...our average would be way higher than it is.

You just can’t help yourself.

I love how he used the TNH as an excuse why it wasn’t snowing along the east coast last winter and then used it as a reason why it would snow this year. Solid reasoning.

We also lost the handful of “crazy uncle” members that thought the cutter next week could be snow from day 9/10.

N@Ralph Wiggum I warned you about the NAO. When I researched for that really pessimistic post I made in early Jan that some got upset because it really crushed our hopes for this winter...I said we needed to see a base change flip by mid January or it was trouble. That’s because I found no examples of similar pacific patterns with this string of a AO/NAO combo for the whole month of January that flipped better in February. All the examples where the AO/NAO flipped for February the AK vortex +NAO pattern wasn’t as entrenched or as strong. All the good Feb examples showed signs of a flip up top by Jan 20th. At this point there is very little chance the AO or NAO improves before very late Feb or March and I’m skeptical it happens at all. Things are following the progression those analogs indicated. What could chance is weakening the AK vortex and getting enough epo ridge to maybe give us a chance. That’s all I’m rooting for. Things are evolving to what I expected. A less crappy look where we could get lucky. But by no means a good look. AK cold can work but the issue is the shot is dumping west first and by the time it translates east it’s weak sauce. After that we need the epo to help some. Guidance keeps kicking the can on that and pulling it further west of where we need it. Unfortunately climo for this years pac and NAM base state is winning over long range guidance everytime.

@Ji lol wow he is pulling out the last play he had left I guess. Thing is that wouldn’t end well. Given the trough axis if we did get a full phased bomb it would cut to Chicago.

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal? Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”? Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any. If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet.

We have 2 threats I see...a trailing wave after the cutter...or a west to east wave around day 11-13. But we would need it to stay progressive. Amplified systems would cut.

Not shocked. It wasn’t the kind of wave that was likely to impact the PV much. And every attempt to dent it has been brushed aside with ease. I’m focused on how to get a progressive wave type deal. That’s all we can try to work with given we’re likely stuck with a raging +AO/NAO. Maybe March but honestly my gut says the NAO stays + straight through.

None of the 3 24 hour networks are quality news. Way too much punditry. Im not sure if CNN has become as bad as Fox wrt false or misleading news because I stopped watching it. We were better off when people got their news from respected outlets and there was ONE news not alternate narratives to fit different agendas.

Yea it was good up in PA but not nearly that good. Had about 50” up there. It must have come down pretty hard in that late March storm then because I don’t remember it being a long drawn out event. That band just missed me in PA.

Thanks. I’ve always wondered what that storm in 2014 did here. I was in Pine Grove PA. We had 8” there. One of my favorite storms. No lull. Just 8 hours of steady heavy wet snow. That was a rare juiced up progressive wave. I’m still kinda bummed I missed 2014. We had good snow up in PA but got fringed a lot compared to down here that winter. A few of those good storms here I was just super cold and dry up there. How much did you get from that really late March coastal in 2014 that started as rain but then stalled and hit this area with the upper low?