psuhoffman

I know... just so funny that they never worry about "normal" when its snowing. The NYC sub is the WORST with that...probably because they got used to having almost every year above normal for like 10 years... but when they get a year "below normal" even if it the year before was GREAT there are some posters that act like its some galactic injustice or something...and I think...well if all you ever have are "above normal" and "normal" then your normal would have to continually rise...I guess maybe that is what they expect?

The next time we get a winter like 2010 or 2014 I am going to complain constantly how "all this snow isn't normal"

my lunch sucked

SHHHHHH I said to keep that on the down low

I am going to make a post wrt the pattern and threats coming up...but was busy with work this morning (SHHHH dont tell anyone) and decided to wait until after the 12z guidance finishes.

Why do you assume that just because I am not making a ton of posts whining and complaining that I am not frustrated? Of course I am frustrated when its not snowing! Just because I don't make 5 posts a day whining about our lack of snow doesn't mean I am not frustrated. Let me summarize what our "normal" climo is and then I am done and you can believe whatever you want to believe. To get a "snowy" winter we basically need one of 2 very anomalous patterns to be dominant at some point in the winter. Either an EPO/PNA combo ridge like 2003/2014/2015 or an NAO block like 1996/2010. But those 2 patterns are NOT normal...they are not likely to dominate most years. They happen about 25% of the time. The other 75% of the time we get years where the base state sucks for snow and we have to hope to scrap and claw and get lucky that maybe we get a 1-2 week window and score some snow but odds are it will mostly suck. Those years will range from total dumpster fire no snow at all to if we really get lucky end up near average. Years like 2000 and 2002 highlight the difference. 2000 we only had a one week window all winter that was a favorable pattern...and we got hit 3 times...by all 3 threats the entire winter! 2002 there was a really good blocking period in late December into early January...but one storm got suppressed and hit NC and another was just slightly too warm and hit just NW of us...and then the last threat was kinda weak sauce and only ended up a 2-3" snow (the only snow all winter). But had 1-2 of those threats in that window hit 2002 would be like 2000. Had the one really big storm in 2000 missed...we would remember that like 2002. Look at this year...there was a wave mid December that sheared out...had that amplified a little big we all get a decent snowstorm. Early January if it was just a couple degrees colder DC gets 3-5". This weekend...had the STJ wave timed up a little better maybe DC gets a decent snowstorm. Bad luck might make this year a total dumpster fire vs just a typical bad year where DC gets 8" but the bottom like is this year fits into that 75% of the time where we DONT get a -NAO or EPO/PNA ridge. What I think some take issue with wrt your posts...is that you act like EVERY winter other than 2000/2003/2010/2014/2015 are TOTAL CRAP. You acted like 2018 was garbage but your area finished above normal that year. You complained in 2016 because the HECS dry slotted you but you still ended up near average on snowfall that winter. You act like its not normal...but you say that 75% of the time! Obviously if something happens 75% of the time IT IS NORMAL!!! I am NOT saying it doesn't suck or isnt frustrating...just that getting not a lot of snow around here isnt abnormal.

Why do you keep calling it a "wet snowstorm". That whole week was cold. Most of the snow from that storm fell with temperatures in the upper 20's to around 30 degrees. The high for the day was only 32. It was NOT a "wet snowstorm" anymore than almost all our snowstorms are "wet" snow. Also..."melts off a few days later"? Are you kidding me? You realize the coldest daily avg high temperature in DC is 43! How many snowstorms do you think keep snow OTG for more than a "few" days after it snows somewhere that the coldest time of the year has average highs more than 10 degrees above freezing? That happens like a handful of times a decade if we are lucky. And lastly that was NOT the only snow in DC last winter.

Snow...lots and lots of SNOW Honestly I think you all have done the best possible this year. For the most part the really stupid stuff has been in banter or panic room. The main thread has been as good as possible given the total crap we have had to deal with.

Becomes...lol

Let’s see how it screws this up.

@Isotherm can’t an Aleutian ridge RNA pattern be overcome easier in March? Assuming the NAO cooperated a little, which I have doubts of. Btw quick question wrt to last year. I know overall all the factors that lead to a less canonical nino response but there were times last February when the epo was very negative with a not hostile AO/NAO either (not the epic blocking sine expected but not bad either) and yet the trough continued to dump into the west and we had a huge eastern ridge. In some other years with a similar look we got a broad full conus positively tilted trough where could come translate east. What was the difference? This look never struck me as that bad yet in most ways yet we had a monster eastern ridge. I thought with that look in the HL from the epo to the NAO we would at least suppress the SE ridge some.

That’s ice down there. This is the actual clown map

There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen.

So you’re saying they explode like Marvel Universe???

It’s really only 12” and a ton of ice. Way more realistic.

Ok so if we actually get this ridiculous epo block and the AO flips to neutral like this... then yea that storm is totally realistic. But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. And if so it better freaking snow because it leads to this...

I bet kuchera is better

It wasn’t nearly as hostile as this year but it wasn’t ideal.

I’m sure a 36 hour snowstorm from a string of progressive waves with no blocking will play out exactly like that from day 13! I’m getting provisions ready! Btw we should do this bizarro reverso thing more often. Being you is fun.

Wasn’t a fluke. The forecasts that relied on sst heavily had optimism. So did the sst based guidance. In November and early Dec before the jet strengthens those factors could dominate. We had the epo ridge we expected with the north pac sst. But the seasonal guidance was correctly picking up on an unfavorable walker cell structure to disrupt the pv and a raging +AO and they were right. As soon as the PV went crazy late Dec it was game over. The reason we could have a chance again in March is the same reason we did I’m early season. As the jet weakens again maybe the PV grip releases. I’m skeptical but maybe.

Good side of what? A few sleet pellets?

I am starting to turn more of my attention to looking at west to plan my ski trip. I settled on Aspen for a long weekend but have to decide about a week out (before flights book up and get pricey) when I think the snow looks good. I’m quickly becoming more interested in that then our snow prospects.

You didn't really cancel winter. You were excited somewhat at some of these long range looks I was hopeful...but always skeptical. I want it to snow. And I’m also mindful of not flooding the thread with doom and gloom. I made those very detailed posts with data and statistics to support them and that was my peace. Im not going to hammer it home every 12 hours. But I put a lot of research into those posts I made a month ago now. I didn’t just wake up feeling Scroogey and throw that out for giggles. And all the history said this pattern just flat out sucks and most of the time when we entered a January with strong central pacific ridging and a strongly positive EPO/AO/NAO it was lights out on hopes of a good winter. And the only exceptions (and there weren’t many) were years where the NAO flipped strongly negative but that happened by late January in every case. So that ship has sailed. But flukes happen. Im not saying it won’t snow at all. I’m never as confident it will snow in a good look or sure it won’t in a bad. Too much weird stuff has happened in the past to ever rule it out. So I’m hopeful. I’m rooting for the fluke. But the history of such situations were in now says our best chance of that fluke (if it happens at all) is in very late February or March. ETA: on the hope springs eternal side, I think 1948 was an example of a similar year to this where our area lucked into a pretty good (3-6”) snowstorm in February from what was a pretty meh pattern surrounded by a god awful pattern. It was one of tye ugliest looking h5 patterns of all the snowstorms I examined for the snow climo study.

Thanks Pot