psuhoffman

Why are you stuck on the mjo projections. This started over you comparing my analysis of the EPS to Will’s and implying they have not gotten worse for our snow chances. Neither myself or CAPE said the EPS was right. Your off on a worthless tangent because your original point was BS.

Sorry let me clarify. The statistics for the pattern in January show we have a roughly 90% chance to end the year below normal snowfall based on past outcomes. That doesn’t mean it can’t snow at all. And hey maybe this is the 10% but right now that seems unlikely. Now below normal doesn’t mean no snow. But losing a huge chunk of prime climo to a crap pattern makes it hard to end well but we did have years like 2007 where a similar January went on to a snowier February. But the statistics were only about 50/50 about it getting any better the rest of winter. In some cases the pattern did shift but to another crappy one. I noted then that some of the crap years had a late snow in March and that might be our best chance. Wrt right now...the look day 15 can go either way. My lost earlier outlined that. But with the AK vortex there with a +NAO it will be hard to overcome. I was talking about day 10-15. I have no clue after. If the vortex shifts and an epo ridge pops like the guidance suggests then it’s a temporary problem. If it sets up shop there longer were in trouble. But I’m not going to speculate much past day 15. My guess is it’s temporary. But that still doesn’t mean we get a great pattern.

Again with the false equivalency. No one even said the EPS was right. I said it degraded the pattern for snow chances the last few runs. It did. I don’t know if it’s right. It’s 10-15 days away. That range is like reading tarot cards. But you’re using a bait and switch tactic to deflect from the fact your last claim was assanine.

Ok less extremes. Even if everything fails within the next 2 weeks we still have February and early March to score a better look and or a fluke snow. The odds of this being a good snowfall year are decreasing rapidly but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get anymore snow at all. Try the middle. It’s a nice place.

I’m going to try really hard to say this respectfully but you really stretch the limits of patience. Will is in New England. He is analyzing the eps from their perspective. How did the pattern in 2001 work out around here last time? And that was with way more blocking than is likely given the current NAM state. The EPS is worse for our snow chances than it was 48 hours ago. For one there are less members with snow here. While that can be a fluke in this case it’s in coordination with unfavorable changes in the longwave pattern. You’ve made posts like this several times here and in other regions peddling false equivalencies. And I am not the first person to point it out or take issue with it. Just a word of advice...the people here aren’t as stupid as you seem to think they are.

They do. They broke the pattern down erroneously several times in years with a cold base stare. PD2 was rain in the long range and not even close because I was up at PSU and it was all rain even there on the day 10 MRF. 2014 several times guidance showed a false warm up. But there are less opportunities for that because the base state is warm most years.

Nope it’s degrading run after run as more members agree on a AK vortex with +++ NAO. It’s almost impossible to overcome that combo. The Hudson ridge is the only thing creating any slim hope.

After that...where we go into Feb really depends on what happens with the TPV. This look is universal across guidance at day 15 The CFS and Euro weeklies both agree on how this evolves...the extension of the vortex near AK lifts, the ridge under it builds up into the EPO domain...and this dumps cold into the CONUS and centers a trough in the Ohio Valley. This is actually a good look...look at the EPO snow mean in the climo thread. However...the long range guidance is suspect and if it is wrong about the vortex lifting near AK...this is an alternative progression if the vortex remains anchored the way it is day 15 and the NAO remains positive (and NOTHING indicates it wont). The analogs to the day 11 look are split between how that evolves with about half going the way the weekly guidance suggests...and half going the "gave over" way above. So...I guess the question is...do ya feel lucky?

The day 10-15 window still looks workable. This is from the 0z EPS but the look across guidance is similar Ideally we would want a little lower heights near the blue x and the ridge centered near the red x...but those are not big shifts for that range...and that is being really picky. This has flaws...this is not a cold pattern, the extension of the vortex into AK is cutting off any transport of true arctic air into the US, and the likely problem here is temps. But mid winter...we can sometime overcome that with a good track and marginal temps. This is about as good a pressure profile as we can get for a day 10-15 period. And the snowfall mean shows where the chance of snow is during this period...again temps are the possible issue It's not a perfect or great look...but its not the worst and we have lucked into snow in this look before. Just need some things to break out way this time.

Wanted to explain what happened to degrade our chances of snow next week. Barring a shift in the north atlantic pattern (and I touched on that yesterday) next week is looking very unlikely to produce snowfall. The guidance miscalculated what happens with the vortex in the north Atlantic the next few days and that sets off a negative chain reaction for our snow chances. From 7 days out the guidance actually nailed the current look pretty much. They might not have had the WAA EXACTLY where it will be...but missing a discreet detail like that by only 100 miles from 7 days away is NOT a significant error and well within acceptable range. Sucks for us but...what happens after this was due to an error in one major feature. Below is what was supposed to happen...That atlantic vortex was supposed to slide across the atlantic, the "storm" this weekend would move into its place...and the flow over the top of that would pump the ridge over Canada and end up centered as shown below. But that isn't what is happening. Instead that Atlantic vortex is going to phase into the TPV over Greenland...strengthening it and anchoring it over Baffin Island...that then also absorbs the storm this weekend up into it...creating a vortex that was not supposed to be there over Baffin...which alters the flow forcing the ridge to shift further southeast...and be centered over the Northeast instead of near Hudson Bay. So we end up with this look....instead of a ridge centered back in Central Canada. That of course shifts the trough well off the east coast. One major miscalculation in a significant feature in the north Atlantic degraded our chances of snow severely. Of course right after I post this the op euro says...wait a minute. There are enough random runs within the ensembles and an occasional op run...that manage to bring down heights to our northeast enough...(as I touched on the other day) that the threat is not completely dead. But it's unlikely IMO... it would need to overcome the ridge being centered too far southeast of where we want it. But guidance could trend back the way we need it...but as of right now the look above is why what was a very good look 5 days ago became mediocre at best.

@C.A.P.E. The solar correlation isn't as simply as some think. On top of what that study showed, which is at times the correlation between solar and NAO have flipped, during the last 50 years there seems to be an opposite effect based on the QBO state. The impact of the QBO on the PV seems to change based on the solar. Unfortunately this year we had what we want during low solar, a descending transitioning QBO and it has yet to do us any good. Isotherm brings up some interesting factors regarding AAM that I honestly have not done much research into and therefore do not factor into any of my calculations. But what I noticed when I did look into his points some... was that the current state of some key circulations are opposite of what we would historically expect given current ENSO and other SST anomalies and indexes. Things are out of phase...and perhaps that does explain some of the odd responses. Like he suggests, some of these other factors being out of phase with what would typically be expected with a descending near neutral QBO in a warm neutral low solar...could be countermanding the typical response to such a state.

Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are. And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff.

I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied. I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason.

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope

“Whiff again?” What exactly are you chasing? March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”? Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it. But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that.

March 2018.

Cfs says mid Feb is worth waiting for I mean it has to be right eventually

No it was a nice run imo. Would give us opportunities for snow in February for sure.

Very nice weeklies run fwiw

I don’t put a lot of faith in anything past day 10. The EPS isn’t great but it’s a small adjustment from either good or bad. There will be adjustments. We will see.

How’s the fog?

It is. So that says our chances for snow are about normal, which for us isn’t very good. Lol however hidden within that are 2 facts...most of that comes day 12-15 from a specific threat. So that specific time period has some promise. And the pattern is mediocre but a slight adjustment from good. It’s not the same as a bad mean in a pattern with a ton of major flaws. That said it was a disappointing last 24 hours with the EPS. It hasn’t radically shifted any features but imperfections within the pattern have shown up to limit the probabilities.

That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run. It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS. The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly.

GEPS and GEFS both like the idea of a snowstorm somewhere in the mid Atlantic day 10-15