psuhoffman

This is our penance for acting like last year was bad

I mean there are people who don’t believe the world is round! If someone doesn’t believe in the concept of biological evolution than they won’t “get it”. If you went back in time far enough you wouldn’t be able to breath. The composition of the air would be too different for your lungs. If we cause a change to the environment that is faster than our biology can adapt we die. It’s not that complicated. But some people aren’t that smart. Btw there is some speculation by scientists that this could be the answer to the Fermi paradox. The Fermi paradox is only real if we assume technology is actually a viable means to an end and a path to advanced civilization. But some are proposing that the use of technology takes a biological species off the natural evolution intended to keep it in harmony with its environment and might be a path to inevitable demise. I’m not sold on that but it’s an interesting hypothesis.

It irks me when I see my totals this year too!

It amazes me in marginal events how much more snow I get here than in the valley north of me. That 600 feet makes a huge difference sometimes.

It’s huge flakes right now. Not sticking much though, just some minor whitening of the grass. 34 degrees so...

Lol. In 125 years of records it has never not had at least 1.5” of measurable snowfall from Feb 1 on here. I doubt this year doesn’t have any measurable snow here the rest of the year. That’s almost impossible. A cow farts and it snows here. But I doubt it amounts to more than a inch or two here and there unless we either get supremely lucky or a bonafide pattern flip.

Snowing here right now.

It’s snowing here right now.

I have a T-shirt with a picture of me sledding with my niece from that storm.

What does that have to do with the euro control run he made that comment about?

Thanks. So now that you have let us know what doesn’t work...what does? You complained all we do is model worship so now is your chance. Analyze the long range pattern anyway you want. No one will stop you. But listening to you do nothing but complain about how everyone else does something gets old.

If it happens we need to send JB a big thank you card for finally throwing in the towel so that we can get winter! Jokes aside I’m skeptical until I see it get within range. The pac forcing remains awful. There will come a time as wavelengths shorten and the PV weakens some that perhaps we have a shot so I guess I’ve not totally given up. I’ll hold onto that little spec of hope and hug it tight.

Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer.

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow. If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.

You're not accounting for a couple factors that cause the phenomenon you are talking about. 1. The GEFS has 2 known biases that would perpetually cause it to show too much snow here. A cold bias, and a weak bias with the PV. These 2 known factors constantly bias the GEFS towards too much snow here. The EPS and GEPS are constantly more conservative (and more accurate) wrt our snow chances in the long range. I think people see the higher GEFS snowfall and think the guidance is better than it really is. 2. When the long range guidance shows a 35% chance of snowfall...when that number goes down as it gets closer...that is not the guidance being wrong...or getting worse...its simply its closer and so they 65% is winning out...which ends up meaning no snow. That keeps happening...and people think the guidance is degrading...not its just the majority is winning as it SHOULD. If the guidance (and I mean the EPS/GEPS not the GEFS) ever actually shows above 50% chances of significant snowfall THEN its wrong if as it gets closer it loses the snow. That has not been the case at all this year...and it usually isnt. People are not interpreting the probabilities correctly. 3. We have to be in a good pattern for the opposite of what you are talking about to happen. Since we spend about 75% of the time in a crappy pattern (that is normal) there are not as many opportunities to get a "bad bust" like you want. In years like 2010 and 2014 there were times the long range looked bad and then trended better. It doesn't happen as often because we dont get as many chances in a "good year" as we do in a "bad year".

Game Set Match

First of all...1996 isn't the ONLY nina fluke. There was a year in the early 1900s...I can't remember if it was 1905 or 1909 but I remember years ago when doing research there was a nina year around then that was an epic snow year in DC. When the NAO is negative during a nina we actually can get snow. The problem is the pacific pattern correlated to a nina is also correlated to a +NAO so often we get both a bad pacific AND atlantic in a nina. Kind of like this year. This is the composite of all the Nina years in the last 30 years OTHER than 1996. Look at the typical pacific pattern But look at the pacific in 1996 The pacific pattern never aligned with a typical nina response. Or in other words...the Nina didn't "couple" with the atmosphere in the pacific. Kind of the same as how last year the nino never coupled and we failed to get the expected results. That could have happened for various reasons. Could have been a disconnect with the AAM or the walker cells or the mjo. I would have to do a case study and I don't have time right now. Maybe that is something worth doing sometime. The low solar state certainly could have contributed to enhancing the blocking...but the fact the pacific wasn't actually in a typical nina pattern that is hostile to blocking likely had at least as much if not more to do with it.

he got what he wanted...affirmation of his persecution complex

I decided this winter was very likely going to suck a long time ago. I said as much. Got the emotional reaction over with, and moved on with my life. I am still tracking. I will still track to the bitter end whether we get anymore snow or not. There can be a fluke in a bad pattern. There could be a transient pattern that is less hostile and we sneak some snow in. Or maybe we get a march flip like in 2018, although I doubt it, that season had a much less hostile base state than this one does. So I am resigned to the fact we are unlikely getting much snow this year...have been since around Xmas. I don't expect much. But I never give up on a fluke snowfall and I am not having some emotional fit about it. It will snow again...if not this year next year. Put me on whatever list that attitude falls into.

I guess we will just have to carry on without him... godspeed to us all

That’s fine...I don’t want to get into the “politics” I just took issue with the insinuation you all were playing favorites or not being equitable.

There are way more factors involved than just enso and solar.

For the record I like DT. He has no filter and gets too emotional sometimes. That combo gets him in trouble. But for the most part I dig his passion and he is always honest about what he thinks/feels.

They’ve known for a while. There is no way they didn’t see the same things some of us did a month ago! It’s just the calculus has finally reached the point it’s not worth spinning anymore. They milked as much time as they can before they risk so much damage to their reputation that it’s not worth it just to string along the 3 people who haven’t figured it out yet. If an amateur can figure it out a month ago I just don’t think it’s credible they just “saw the light” this week.

Most of the -NAO periods were displaced after the minimum. Minimums happened in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008. With the exception of 1996 the periods of extreme blocking cane AFRER minimums. 1977-80. 1987-88. 2010-11. Perhaps 1996 wasn’t as solar related as we thought. Maybe the blocking in 1998 which we forget because it didn’t accompany any snow was in response to the 1996 minimum. Either way the stronger correlation is after minimum not before and it’s not and every year 100% correlation. If we don’t get a period of blocking in the next few years then I would say WTF