psuhoffman

The Greenland tpv shifts northeast at the same time the AK one pulls NW which temporarily allows enough cold to dump into the conus between the two features to make things interesting if we can time something up. Assuming the relax even happens. It’s tenuous. Shift both of those 2 features slightly and it becomes more of the same with no cold at all.

I don’t think 90 got cold until late March then there was a snow in April

Pretty good agreement on the cold dump at least

Ok enough with the obvious negatives, I’ll offer one legit positive. The guidance all does agree on a temporary relax in both the Greenland and AK vortexes that have been killing us. The response dumps cold into the area. The longwave pattern does probably quickly revert to crap but if you put cold into the conus in March things could work out. Clippers, weak boundary waves that don’t even show up at h5, crazy cutoffs...weird things happen in March sometimes. Having cold around makes it possible.

Looks like 100% rain in DC and 90% rain after an inch of slop in the extreme NW part of this sub. I know your trying and keep it up...but it’s by far the furthest south with that system of all guidance and it’s still mostly or all rain for this sub. What we would need to see for that threat to trend better would be something to knock down the ridging ahead of that system. Lower heights to our northeast. Right now the ridging there sets up way too much southerly flow ahead of that system.

Phase 5/6 feeds that mid latitude pac ridge that’s been a problem all season. I think the cause behind the doom and gloom analog data I pointed out around New Years is that when you see such a strong forcing signal in that area in coordination with that anomalous a ridge in the central pac...its highly indicative of a base state that favors continued forcing in that region. And that is what we have seen. Every attempt at forcing propagating out of that region meets resistance. Even when we get some favorable forcing in the IO it’s being muted by a standing wave in the western Pac constantly reforming. I’ve also theorized that pac forcing effects us more than IO forcing. I’ve recently seen some other Mets post that same thought so if a wave in the pac is conflicting with the IO the pac forcing is likely to win out.

Not only is a COD following an amplified wave in warm phases not good, but weak cold phase convection in years with a strong warm base state rarely does any good. I’m very early in the data research but so far the hypothesis that the mjo correlates with pattern response most when it is coupled with the atmospheric base state seems to be true. I think the reason phase 8-1-2 have cold correlations is because in years with a favorable cold pattern base state (ninos) we tend to get highly amplified cold phase waves AND we tend to see waves in those phases for more of the winter. It’s a feedback loop. But in warm state (Nina like) winters weak waves into 8-1-2 don’t have nearly as much effect. Usually when we did see a flip it was with a very strong mjo wave into cold phases and it was indicative of an actual more permanent pattern change in the background base state. It works both ways btw. In years like 1978, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015 (once the pattern flipped late Jan) ... weak warm phase convection doesn’t have the negative effects either. We survived weak warm waves and even snowed during some of them in those years. To simplify...the mjo alone won’t save us. The mjo is one piece of a symbiotic puzzle. The mjo can certainly give us strong clues to what the picture is and the base state, and it is. And if we see a strong amplified wave into 8-1-2 then we can guess a true pattern change might be coming. But seeing attempts at weak waves skirting the edges of cold phases during a hostile pattern is unlikely to do much good. I suppose it can signal a slight “relax” of the very hostile forcing so maybe it highlights an increased opportunity for a lucky fluke, but that’s about it imo. I think the fact we can see some crazy solutions in March gives us the best chance at getting lucky

The euro and canadien never went way into 8 like the gefs. Gefs has backed off too. After 3 days in 8 it reverses and slides back into 7. 7 is a really bad phase late Feb into March. 8 isn’t really all that good anymore either. Shorter wavelengths are making 8 forcing too far west to do as much good anymore. We need 1-2-3 now. 8 is still better but not as good as in Dec-Januar. The euro did look slightly more promising the last few days trending towards 8 but now does a sudden u turn just like the last attempt at a cycle into cold phases. Mersky could tell us how that worked out.

This looks like more of the same to me what’s more those plots don’t look as bad as it really is. The wave in the IO is offsetting the west pac wave on those plots. There are conflicting signals. But the western pac wave is feeding the pac ridge.

Eps follows the same progression as the gefs heading into March.

What do you want me to do about the fact the next 10 days (at least) we are still stuck in the same crap pattern? Pattern change has to come first. Then maybe we get an event. Whether that is 5/10/15 days away you can’t force a threat where there isn’t one. If you keep latching on to every lottery ticket level prayer from day 8 in this awful pattern you will continue to be let down and frustrated. Maybe something does hit on one of these crazy long shot setups that require 15 moving parts to all go our way but I bet if it does it will be something not resolved until short range and it pops up closer in. We are not getting some long range trackable event in this pattern.

GEPS was a nice run. Caved to the idea of a Canada ridge and cutting a trough under into the east. It’s likelt transient and it’s reloading the super + AO at the end but it would create a good window first. This temp profile works in early March. I am trying to be positive and at this point I’m just hunting for a look that could produce one storm. That’s all. So far the possibility of a workable look to start March hasn’t collapsed....yet

GEFS did not trend the way we want for the day 8 super long shot but it does do what I said I wanted to see in the long range. Followed the progression I highlighted on the EPS earlier. We need to get that ridge centered back in central Canada or west of Hudson Bay would be ideal... GEFS strongly indicates the cutter idea day 11-12 but then sets up a look we can work with at the end. Being that far out there is obviously disagreement on exactly where the waves will be and that is why we see that huge spread out trough...but the key features are the ridge centered west of Hudson Bay in Canada and the strong indications of a 50/50 type feature to our northeast. Then we just need to see how the timing works out with whatever waves eject out of the west in that look. Again...assuming the look is real...but another run with that look so I guess odds continue to increase that MAYBE this isnt a mirage if we keep seeing it move closer in time.

I haven't examined the GEFS members...and I don't have time too right now...but I bet just from looking at the operation h5 that if some of them create the separation needed with that NS vort I talked about above...its possible the STJ still escapes but they develop a wave with that NS system a day behind it. That might be our better chance actually. That STJ wave needs to slow down or it will miss the boat even if the NS system ends up further back like we need it. The STJ wave is weak and coming across before the flow relaxes enough. But get that NS system to hang back and we could get a secondary development behind it.

I am still skeptical of the chances for this...but its moving the right direction actually. It was a lot closer than it looked at the surface. The STJ system is getting squashed...and without any phase it likely will in this pattern...but notice the subtle NS feature there...that has been trending west every run now for over 24 hours and is now getting close to where we need it to be to create the separation between the 50/50 trough to allow enough ridging to get the STJ wave to phase and come up the coast more. This is the h5 look We still need to get that NS system a little further back behind to get more separation between the wave near 50/50 but its getting a lot closer...look at the trend the last 5 runs If that continues I could see this look improve in future runs.

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. This is how I could see the advertised pattern (assuming its even correct) work out We will likely need a cutter to set the table... this kind of progression almost worked out a couple weeks ago except the second wave ended up missing the phase and suppressed. But across guidance there is the idea of the mid latitude jet undercutting a ridge in Canada. We would need the initial wave to cut, and its almost guarunteed to cut in that look given the ridging ahead of it in the east. By day 15 the EPS is actually heading the way we would want...the initial system cutting needs to move to our north and knock down heights in the 50/50 region to create enough confluence and resistance to ridging ahead of the next system. There are signs of an STJ system and possibly a second NS system coming across behind it. At that point we just need luck with getting something to amplify. It's not perfect. It would require some luck with timing and such but its more workable than a lot of the other hail mary type crap we have been tracking this year. Of course all this is contingent on this look even being close to correct. I am skeptical of that. Just saying I don't hate this look. ETA: another key to this working is the relaxation of the vortex in AK. Its not totally gone but its pulled back enough to avoid flooding pac puke into the pattern. There is a build up of really cold air in AK so if that vortex lifts enough to get the flow out of AK like shown there...that would be cold enough to work. But its still lurking close enough on guidance to fear it ends up not relaxing at all and if so this whole look goes from workable to utter crap. We almost barely overcame that in January...but its unlikely we can overcome the temp issues from that in March.

The one hopeful/positive thing I can say is that isnt actually a bad thing. A central Canada/Hudson Bay ridge is one of the best ways to get a "fluke" snowstorm in an otherwise not good pattern. Its by far the largest factor in the +AO snowstorms I found. If we aren't going to get a meaningful change across the AO region getting a Hudson Bay ridge would be the next best thing. True, it didn't work before, but last time it had 2 things working against it. The ridge in canada actually ended up centered southeast of Hudson. Ideally we want it centered over or northwest of Hudson Bay. That detail was a problem. It promoted too much ridging ahead of that upper low coming across allowing it to cut to our west. The other issue was the AK vortex flooding too much warmth into the CONUS. But even with both of those issues we still came very close to a snowstorm, honestly the best chance we had all winter at a real fluke snow event, when that storm failed to come together/phase and slid harmlessly OTS. We actually ended up cold enough that had it phased we would have had a wet snowstorm. Remember from a week out I was lamenting that guidance was showing perfect track cold rainstorms in what historically was a h5 look that should work. Well in the end it trended colder and it WOULD HAVE WORKED...only the storm crapped out on us and was suppressed. That happens...and a Hudson Bay ridge isnt the best look in March...not saying if I had the crayons and could draw it up that is what I would go with...but a Hudson Bay ridge is by far a better opportunity than the crap we have now and would at least give us a chance if we can get something to amplify and cut across south of us under that ridge. It's actually a "workable" look.

I think some are managing emotions. They would rather not expect anything and resign themselves to crap then get their hopes up to repeatedly be let down. Thing is they don’t need others agreement to manage their own emotions. As for me I’m just a realist. I’ve tried to mix in some positive spins at times but there really hasn’t ever been anything more than Hail Mary type long shots all year. While there were some snows in a +AO regime none featured this pac look. On top of that none featured the +4 stdv type AO we’ve been dealing with. A quick glance at the h5 loop everyday is all it takes to quickly ascertain how hopeless it’s been most of the time.

@C.A.P.E. I’m very skeptical we get HL help, but I’m even more skeptical we can luck into something without it. History says that pac pattern is not going to change and the few times we did get snow in similar years it was preceded by some blocking up top. In some cases like 76 it was bootleg weak blocking but still we need some help. We’re not overcoming both a crap pac and a raging +Epo/AO/NAO. That’s beyond “we need some luck”. This isn’t just a bad pattern, it’s the worst possible pattern we could see. It’s the least likely to produce a fluke snow and it’s the least likely to break down quickly. I said this look is a season destroyer and it has been just that. March offers some hope like 76 because of the chaos created by shorter wavelengths and increased potential energy and baroclinicity. Weird things can happen. But the meat of this winter has been eaten alive by this pattern.

I agree. Im skeptical the better pattern is even real though. We will see.

Something can always beat the odds but the pattern is awful. Raging +AO. AK vortex. Progressive mid latitude flow. Nothing looks right for a snowstorm. Flukes happen but I’m more interested in hopefully getting a real pattern change than chasing day 9 Hail Mary prayer scenarios.

Count me with Ji in the "not at all comforted to see a suppressed solution" in the long range. We could definitely see something suppressed. We did a few times this year, often so suppressed that nothing ended up happening or it was a rain event for NC that would have been snow up here. So I am not saying I expect it to actually snow a lot in the south...but in this type of progressive pattern the most likely outcomes are either cutter or weak suppressed wave. We are in the least likely in between zone. The prospects of a pattern change towards the end of February have way more interest to me than anything else.

That is so that the storm that will turn up the coast day 11 will be rain

2 misses to the south day 7-10 LOL

1964, 1996, 2005 all showed up in the analogs and all featured some snow in our area in late February. 1976 is actually the best analog in the group because it matches this seasons overall crap pattern very well also, and that year had one big snowstorm in our area in March. I think it was 8" in Baltimore and 12" out here.