psuhoffman

Some is. The AO/NAO is very likely a cycle. But at the same time we are warming on a larger scale and the oceans are scorching. Could we have reached a tipping point? It’s obvious things are skewing warmer. How much is natural cycles? How much our fault? I am not getting into all that and I don’t know.

@showmethesnow problem with the day 7 system is we need to get lucky with a NS feature to suppress but right now the NS energy is coming in on top of the system or behind it. That might suppress the system but its also going to wreck the mid levels and also prevent any good closed circulation to form, thus no good precip shield just the showery crap we see right now on guidance. We need to see a trend towards getting a NS system to come across ahead of the system. I suppose it's far enough out that is still possible, and the ridge axis across Canada is good enough that if we had some confluence in front it could work...but we haven't had that kind of luck all year.

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration. IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year. The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably. Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had. Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two. From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long. And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5. With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely. I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias. So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error. That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road. Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.

I wouldn’t bet on it working out but the euro control and op gfs both show there is still some potential long range. The idea of a cold dump is still there. Then we just have to get lucky. Gfs has 3 NS SWs run interference and mess up 3 straight threats. I could see that. Euro control has a beautiful west to east storm that crushes southern VA and fringed us. I can see that. I suppose I could also see us getting a hit but it requires a lot more alcohol and squinting.

Yea that’s the key. I posted that loop showing how the op gfs was trending better with that a day or so ago and it promptly went the other way the next few runs. It would take a lot of work to fix that flow. But I’m sure there will be one run that looks good just to make it hurt more when it fails.

I knew by New Years we were pretty screwed. But in the fall I had hope. Thing is...shift the pac forcing just a few degrees east and get the AO less positive and it’s suddenly not so awful. But when I saw where the pac ridge was setting up and the AO going crazy stupid positive it was game over.

That look is universal across guidance. It’s overdone on the gefs (cold bias) but it’s plenty good enough on the geps and eps too. As I was saying above that’s our best looking opportunity coming of the year. That’s a low bar but it is what it is.

My optimistic spin of the day...early March still holds “some” potential. Before that everything is lottery ticket type threats. There are signs that shortening wavelengths are starting to create the chaos we need to at least have a chance. The cold that creates the threat for NC this week comes due to a super transient ridge intrusion into and through the eastern EPO domain. It’s too short lived such that by the time the flow has a chance to relax and back enough for anything to develop the ridge has progressed too far. This time the ridge progresses over top of us as a system tries to come east only the flow is suppressive in front, not really that cold, and the trough digging in the west is stealing most of the energy. It’s another long shot. But after that all guidance suggests another ridge progresses into NW Canada. This time it lasts long enough (several days) to create a true cold dump into the eastern US. That’s true across all guidance. It won’t last. It’s not a true pattern change imo just chaos from shorter wavelengths allowing transient ridges to progress where they couldn’t during the stable winter longwave pattern. But any change will snap back to the status quo imo. But the biggest correlation to snow in March is simply cold. March had by far the largest sample of “weird” snowstorms. Patterns that looked odd that produced snow. H5 looks that made no sense. Get that cold dump for the first week of March and we have a chance. The long range 12z gfs shows how it could work. 2 waves come out before the cold is scoured. Because they split the energy wave 1 gets suppressed. If that ejects whole that is likely a snow threat. Storm 2 could have been after day 16. The look is already breaking down and after that second wave day 17 we will warm up on that look but we would have had 2 shots first. I know a long range op isn’t going to be close but the longwave pattern matches all the ensembles and I’m just using it’s details to show how that “could” work. It’s not a great look. Expectations should be low. But it’s the best chance we have had. Get a huge dump of cold in March and roll the dice. It’s all we got.

If the longwave pattern sucks monkey nuts such that the only time we can get cold is with a strong NW flow behind a wave (when everything will be suppressed) odds of getting snow are minimal.

One problem there is the flow is de amplified but also there isn’t enough cold to really resist the WAA ahead of a low there to create the stout WAA precip you typically see in a winter synoptic system located there. You need enough resistance to the southerly flow to create enough lift to get that. Otherwise you get a more typical spring/summer showery look to the precip shield.

This is perspective and not right/wrong. I don’t consider 40s that cold. Of course I was just skiing with a temperature of -10 and honestly that didn’t feel that bad when the sun was out so I might be a bit if a freak. I’ll admit that. But my bigger point was even the marginally “chilly” periods you can get in April are not going to last. 2018 had 2 cold shots but both were in and out in 3 days with 60s-70s bookending both 3 day periods. 2007 had one true cold snap (about as cold as it can get in April) but it was only 5 days and bookended with 50s/60s. So even in a worst case scenario coldest April possible we will still end up with more 60+ days than below 50 days and it won’t even be close. Cold just can’t hold that late. So yes we could suffer a 3-5 day “chilly” period if we get a monster -NAO but a few days in the 40s in a month dominated by 60s overall is not going to really bother me at all. But that’s just me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion on this. Rainy days are the exception btw. A rainy day can be miserable in April but does it really matter if it’s 48 and raining or 58 and raining? Either way I’m not spending much time outside. But again that’s just my opinion.

No they recorded a T of frozen twice that week. But also hit 70 one day and were in the 50s a few others. Up here it can be a little chilly (but I don’t mind a sunny 47 degree day at all) but outside the higher elevations in April unless it’s precipitating or a crazy rare anomalous arctic airmass that’s unlikely to last more than a day or two...it gets close to 50 from the sun angle. And a 50 degree sunny day in April feels great imo. Cold in the spring is overblown imo. ETA: it can be chilly when it’s raining but who cares. I wouldn’t be out in the rain anyways.

At IAD April 2018 had 2 days in the 80s 6 days in the 70s 10 days in the 60s 10 days in the 50s 2 days in the 40s. 2007 6 days in the 80s 5 days in the 70s 3 days in the 60s 9 days in the 50s 7 days in the 40s How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

Most close calls happen in a decent pattern. Good patterns even are littered with near miss fails. We haven’t had anything close to a good pattern so nothing close to a near miss either.

Why don’t you complain a little more.

It’s been making a subtle comeback today. Enough that I’m mildly slightly interested in keeping one eye kinda sorta on it maybe. It’s likely going to trend to where we just need one more slight improvement then collapse into total fail. Ask Ji how that works.

It will be transient. We’re just looking for a shot. We probably only get one chance. The first system to eject from the west behind the likely cutter will be the only real chance. After it probably breaks down again.

It will be salt in the wounds if we got the pattern we needed too late...but the fear spring gets ruined by a -NAO is always overblown. A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees. It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April.

There has been no pattern change offered at all by any models since January He has a script and will stick to it regardless

Yea so he immediately moved on to the next ridiculous BS nonsense that he knows has next to no chance to verify. You would think he would at least try to tone it down for 5 minutes.

Don’t worry JB has a new analog. 1960. No shame...lol

Great write up @showmethesnow its actually kinda close Get the heights a little lower to our northeast and that low will be forced under the ridge. Its not likely but it’s not hopeless. That look across Canada is new and it’s breaking inside day 10 now across all guidance. New isn’t always better but in this case I’ll take my chances on anything else. A cold dump is still on all guidance after that closed low. We just have to see what the specifics within the flow look like when that gets within range. It sometimes doesn’t take as much of a SW to produce in March. Weak waves tend to juice up with the increased baroclinicity. But it’s a different look (not totally, some of the same issues do linger) but with changing wavelengths maybe we have some chance.

If the ridging across Canada can hold for a week it could work. It would be a repeat of the late January period that actually almost produced a snow. It was the closest we came in this crap pattern. Only this time with more cold stuck under the ridge (if that dump is real and doesn’t get muted). If the AK and Greenland tpv never relax the whole thing collapses. But if we do get a dump of cold and a week with a central or western Canada ridge that would be our best look of the winter. That’s a very very low bar, and there are way too many “ifs” in there to bet money on it...just trying to find a silver lining.

@C.A.P.E. ok this all depends on this progression being right. And I’m skeptical but right now all 3 majors show this so it at least can’t be totally ruled out. I actually liked the 12z eps. Starts out showing our basic crap look from all winter. Everything locked up top... this opening in the mid range sets up an opportunity if it’s real... So it won’t be true arctic air. It’s air that originated over AK (but it’s been building cold there) that gets released as the vortex relaxes and mixes with the canadien airmass. That makes it above normal there, but only somewhat, and a direct discharge of slightly above normal northern Canada air into the US is cold enough here. It dumps west initially due to the ridge wall... but after the cutter it will come east combined with another dump of canadien air. Again not frigid but plenty cold enough to support snow if we get lucky. It won’t be a long window. The pattern up top is already reloading and about to slam the door shut. That energy out west is our shot. If that can come across before the cold breaks down we could get one chance. yes I know how pathetic it is to be analyzing a series of progressions that need to happen just to give us one moderate level threat 15/20 days away...but that’s literally all we got. I’m trying to focus on the minimal amount of hope in a sea of despair.