psuhoffman

Oh look the one time the EPS looked better than the GEFS is the one time it caves to the GEFS! Where have we seen this before

This is how I feel. The longwave pattern isn’t that different but we are seeing the expected seasonal changes giving us the “chance” at the late fluke. It could work. But it still won’t come easy with the look up top likely to remain hostile. But this is the time of year flawed can work more often if we can just get enough cold around.

There is no shame in being wrong (I am a lot) wrt long range forecasting. Stuff past 10 days is like being a batter in baseball. Even the best will be wrong a lot. But playing childish ass games that insult others intelligence is inexcusable. I also think he was better years ago when he didn’t only focus on super long range stuff. He used to do a good job breaking down the details of medium range threats. That still takes skill but it’s way more useful and realistic than only making super long range stabs in the dark. It’s like he stopped trying to hit singles and only swings for the fences now. And he seems increasingly frustrated with it all also. He has gone full tilt. I do think some of it is intentional (an act) but some is likely out if his control.

I agree about using IAD however you cannot use the DCA avg to make your forecast then use the IAD results to verify it.

I totally get why most have given up and this setup is not a high probability one. There are lots of moving parts that we need to play nice. Those usually don’t work. BUT...a winning solution is still very much within the envelope of realistic possible scenarios with that trailing wave next week. But it’s unlikely to be the kind of thing resolved well by guidance at range so I’m ok with it just looking ambiguously close at this point.

Who cares. My final falling out with JB was many years ago when he used IAD snowfall to verify a DCA forecast...and even with that trick it was still several inches short and he rounded up and said “close enough”. Dude has no scruples.

It was closer to something from the trailing wave too. A split between the gfs and gem would work. One over and one under amplified.

The SE gets another one

Ggem is at least somewhat interesting.

So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit.

@showmethesnow things are trending somewhat better (minus the spacing issue) for next week...but it’s still a low probability threat. In a good year we likely wouldn’t even be tracking it. Lots of moving parts that need to play nice. After that, as expected, the look is degrading again. Gefs and geps totally lost the idea of any epo help. They reform the AK vortex Pac Ridge combo...yay. Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong!

Kidding but it was. Never gets the front east so it’s cutter after cutter cutter. But no way that could happen right? RIGHT!

18z gfs is a disaster

That happens sometimes in our total crap fail years... years with a base state bad for snow isn't that unusual...but even within those years to get a total absolute fail takes some bad luck, and often areas all around will have at least some snow. Even in the absolute worst years it is still winter and there will be some fluke opportunities, a trailing wave on a front, a transient PNA ridge. To get a total fail you have to have a bad pattern...but then also get unlucky and miss on the few fluke opportunities that do come along.

@showmethesnow the gem just did exactly what I was envisioning above. Gfs wasn’t that far off either. It might be a viable idea.

Yea...I assumed it was meant to be a parody

Wait that post was supposed to make sense?

If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe...

We have fail threads now!!!!

I doubt 53 would run a fake name. He is up front with his stuff. I can respect that. He only changed back from Tenman with permission. Mersky on the other hand I am 99% sure is a past member with some axe to grind.

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south. That one is getting closer on the EPS. It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.

March 58 was way less of a "fluke" than March 93. We could repeat the 93 pattern 100 times and not get that result. March 58 was a legit awesome pattern that would produce most of the time if repeated. Of course none of that matters since March 58 is just one analog, most are actually crap. But a few did evolve into something but the ones that did the NAO tanked later in March...do we really see that happening?

Yea it will move out, it needs too or NOTHING can happen with that vortex sitting over Maine...but look at the limited spacing between the waves. By the time the NW flow and confluence relaxes behind that 50/50 the next wave should be approaching. The spacing there looks good, and if anything, too tight. But yes you are rightfully pointing out the flaws...its far from a perfect setup, but I am just saying its more workable that the crap we have been looking at 99% of the time. Low bar and all...

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe... I am trying here....really I am

Actually with that 50/50 the system coming through the west there "could" be forced under us. Suppression is likely the bigger issue. It's far from a great look but its better than we have had a lot of winter.