psuhoffman

I didn't say it was a good winter...but the pattern ended up a hybrid between the cold/snowy west based nino analogs and the warmer more east based super ninos. It certainly was warmer and less snowy than the analogs like 58, 03, 10 but it did feature more "chances" at snow in the mid atlantic with cold periods than 1998. All of them other than the one big HECS missed NYC but that details while very important to ground truth doesn't mean a lot wrt to the larger scale pattern. There was a weak wave that missed NYC to the south right before the HECS. There were small accumulations in VA and MD from that. Another wave right after got suppressed and failed to amplify and no one got anything. I got 8" here in MD from a storm on Feb 9-10th that stayed south of NYC. Then there was a 4-8" snowstorm in VA and southern MD that missed to the south of NYC a week later and then an ice storm right after that. Then there were 2 threats in March, one the first week and then one around the 19th that put down some snow to the south of NYC and were threats to be a bigger storm but failed to phase and amplify. There were several periods of cold/snow threats that winter...mid January, another mid February, and then 2 cold snaps in March with threats. In between there were full on torch periods that skewed the mean temps very warm. But that was different from 1998 when there were very few periods where it was cold enough for a snow threat. NYC got screwed over and most of the other threats failed to phase or amplify and stayed south of NYC but there were snow threats. IN the end it was probably way closer to 98 or 83 than 2010 but it did feature more cold periods and snow threats in the mid atlantic than those years.

Any hope of that factor changing left the building a while ago. At this point whatever minimal chances at snow remain hinge on getting a lucky wave track from short wavelength induces chaos.

op GFS develops the best pattern of the year mid March lol. Of course that look wouldnt work without the shorter wavelengths. There are still some hints that there could be chances for cold to be around at times mid month...we will see. Any snow continues to be a long shot imo.

In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between. After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together. There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic.

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground.

If you really were a meteorologist for 30 years maybe you should have done more “work” and then your posts would suck less.

It’s bitter, at least get it right.

And to be fair your posts aren’t 99% crap and you don’t go from sub to sub picking fights so you would likely get way more leeway.

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001? Oh maybe a December 2000 too? I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub.

Why would we care about an April 82 repeat?

It won’t undo the misery of this dreadful winter...and I don’t know what the score changes too, depends on how much and how long the snow lasts I guess...but a snowstorm would make me happy and I would enjoy that day and that’s all that matters to me. The past is done. I can’t change it.

So this is super low odds, in a good year it wouldn't even be worth mentioning it...but the scenario the GFS has shown a few times now centered around day 12 is showing up on some other guidance also. The euro control gets a couple waves through the area around then with a somewhat similar evolution, getting an initial wave up into the 50/50 area and then pinwheeling something into the east behind it. There are several members of the GEFS and EPS that do the same. I suppose its just enough to say its possible and not completely crazy. There seems to be some hints that perhaps there is some opportunity for something around March 7-10th.

What the GFS is doing (more so at 0z but somewhat at 12z also) is a good example of why shorter wavelengths in March can create fluke events. That said...this exact result is still unlikely, and even if we do get a system to track under us I am on the record saying its going to be rain...that is simply the best way to end this season with the most possible damage and pain possible. But this is a perfect illustration of how March can create weird solutions. This looks so familiar...same setup for the whole winter...with the crap pac setting up a trough west ridge east configuration and no blocking up top to help force a system under us. But despite the same look up top and in the pac the shorter wavelengths make it POSSIBLE, not likely but physically possible, for a system to track under us. The first wave slides into a 50/50 position which is still critical, and likely an error because if that first wave ends up anywhere else or at any other time...the whole thing doesn't work. But even if we had that perfect timing in January this would never work. Look at the short spacing between waves which makes this whole thing even physically possible. During mid winter that look in the pac would drive a super ridge into the east and its game over no matter where that first wave goes. The possibility of tight spacing and systems to cut off because of it creates the chaos we need to even have a chance at a fluke in such a hostile pacific base state. It's still unlikely anything works out...it would take a lot of luck with multiple moving parts, but its physically possible.

my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol

July is going to be hot

Im going to start predicting big rainstorms from 6 months away and then declare myself a weather god

Thank you. 2 thoughts wrt what you noticed (I noted it also). First it's hard to draw conclusions about that because what those numbers don't show is the frequency of those patterns. If a pattern is more rare it might be the best pattern but have less instances of snow simply because there were less opportunities compared to a more common but less productive pattern. That said, I do think there is also a bit of "too much of a good thing" going on with a -EPO/+PNA full latitude ridge. In a vacuum a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO are the best phases of each of the 4 major indexes. But when in combination it's not always that simple. When we have a really strong -NAO for instance, some of our biggest snowstorms happened with an unfavorable PNA/EPO combo, but in reality that "unfavorable" pattern out west trying to force ridging into the cold locked into the northeast is what created the big storm. Without that we would have been cold/dry with a weak wave running off the southeast coast. Time of year also matters...we typically need the epo/pna more early in the season and the nao more late. Without any NAO help...by far our best look is that east based EPO ridge nosing over the top creating a broad flat trough under it across the lower 48. The NAO changes the equation. The more blocking (especially later in winter) the less we need EPO/PNA help. Enough blocking later in the season and we actually dont want a big wester ridge. So there really is no one perfect look that is universal across the whole winter season. That study I did was just step one is a larger plan. Right now I have no time for anything. My less frequent posting lately is not just because the weather sucks... its more that this is a busy time of year for me. December/January I have a lot of free time. Between Holidays, end of semester and PD breaks there, and testing I have a solid 2 months with not much going on other than my normal teaching duties and even those...I only have a normal class to plan for or stuff to grade about half the time. Right now is one of the times of year I am slammed with observations, curriculum planning meetings, summer school planning, bridge project scoring, Test prep planning, debate events... I just don't have time. But I have way more in the plans. I just found out I might be getting a rather significant increase in my responsibilities wrt to my summer position so I may not get to all of this but I should still have more time to at least start this list. In addition to what I did in December, I want to do a similar study for our area. Then I also want to look month by month and break down the dominant patterns from 1950 on to see the frequency of each pattern. I also want to break down those splits by month to confirm which patterns work best by each month. Once done I would be able to determine what the odds of snowfall in any given pattern are (roughly) by month. That would make what I posted here a lot more useful. But that will take a lot of time I don't have right now. If I don't get it finished this summer I probably will next December during my next "down time" period.

Fluffy Flakes sounds like a delicious breakfast cereal

I know YOU, and most, know that. But I wouldn't want some to misinterpret your first post to mean "just look at the AO". There are definitely some situations where the AO is the key. This is one of them. But then there are times the AO is less stable. Or years like 2014/2015 where a perfect EPO can overcome a +AO. Or more often then that...a short duration cold/snowy period during an overall warm +AO year. No argument from me that the AO is one of the most important, if not THE most important indicators for snow here....just that its not as simple as "just look at the AO". I wish it was. My comments were more for the new posters that might read that and get the wrong idea.

Models are getting better at this

And there it is

I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail.

No we will get 2-3 teases where it is cold enough but storms track just to our west as the pattern transitions. Then exactly when it’s simply too late to work we will get the totally perfect coastal bomb that would have been 50” if it was one week sooner but will just be rain mixed with just enough slush bombs to make it hurt more.

Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm

So the obvious issues of the pac and AO have been covered...but there are transient troughs making it into the east now due to shortening wavelengths and that’s our “fluke chance”. But another issue muting those odds is that the next 2 troughs (on guidance at least) amplify and stall to our north and do not progress east. It’s much harder to get a follow up system to amplify under a system than behind it. It’s not leaving enough space. Then when the trough lifts it does so quickly and to the north instead of a progressing east which also limits the chance of a WAA wave on the tail of any cold shot. That progression is the fabled warm wet cold dry we love so much.