psuhoffman

@Mersky I much prefer and am more comfortable analyzing synoptic setups within day 10 but we haven’t had much opportunity for that lately.

Yes the WAG I made in November was awful. By New Years I knew we were screwed for the season. I seem to remember you calling me stupid for cancelling winter around New Years but now you’re going to criticize me for not canceling it sooner? SMH.

The late week setup screams painfully close miss to me which would be the perfect way to end this season.

Yea that would be almost as bad as using the CFS to predict an mjo phase 8.

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse. Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo.

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts. Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t.

I can think of something else that describes

I must look into this analog thing. Never heard of it. Sounds like voodoo black magic to me.

Yea each model keeps spitting out a snow solution here or there but it continues to be a random storm with no consistency. Until we see guidance converge on the same discreet event it all remains highly unlikely.

Wrt the op euro the SS and NS missed the phase and a major storm by 6 hours. It was as close as you can get without a major amped solution. And it would have amplified perfectly for us location wise. It was a run that suggests there is a chance. There have been enough runs with a similar look that it’s at least still a threat, if a long shot one. That’s all it’s worth.

In fairness you might be the only one of the 7 people in this sub effected by that still paying any attention. I am at the point where I check in once a day and scan everything but not wasting any more time than that. I don't really have that much time right now anyways.

When I was in Revelstoke years ago I met a local riding the lift who was in his 60s and was looking for someone to go into the backcountry with. He showed me some pretty awesome terrain and he was still carving it up at his age. We did 3 awesome runs down the backside of the resort and then we had a few beers while he waxed our skis for the next day. The locals in that part of BC have always been friendly. One trip the credit card system was having issues and cards wouldn't work and the people behind me in line took care of my lunch.

I know the thread is a dumpster fire joke at this point but it can snow even into late March here, and some of the years it did were god awful seasons like this one. Now...does that mean it’s likely? Hell no. It’s a long shot. And we’re not getting some 20” cold smoke HECS. A small slushy accumulation is more likely if anything at all. But some would be happy with that and would want to track it. So if you’re one of the people who has totally checked out (I’m mostly checked out) fine but leave those that want to track every lottery ticket chance to the bitter end alone. It’s no skin off your back. Posts whining about other people tracking low probability snow chances is more annoying than the posts tracking them.

JH is actually quite steep. Hard to convey on video because the camera is also angled downhill giving the illusion that it’s flat. Corbett’s was closed while I was there. Some of the chutes that we’re open we’re plenty steep enough for me. If you take a line down rendevous bowl then the hobacks you get 4000 feet of consistent perfect steep pitch with just a small flat area in the middle. JH has plenty of nice tree stashed. If you like trees Revelstoke is the place. I’m a tree skier myself. Nothing compares to their glade terrain. Revelstoke actually has the most vertical at over 5000 but the bottom 1000 or so is low elevation and useless. Most don’t even ski it and use the gondola connection to get down. So if you remove that JH and Revelstoke are similar wrt real vertical. One difference is the terrain layout. Revy is one massive mountain with more consistent lines down. JH is a ridge line with more gullies and ridges and horizontal traversing to get to one area or another. Both have plenty of advanced epic terrain.

This is one from Revelstoke a few years ago. My brother shot it so it’s usually me or my wife in the shots. It’s a whole other world up there. Amazing place.

Everywhere is getting more expensive. One issue is the shrinking disposable income of the working class in America. There just isn’t as much of a market for businesses to cater to that segment anymore. More and more resorts are focused on the wealthy. It’s a shame. Colorado is the worst wrt that. JH was expensive but not out of control. I found some reasonable places to stay and eat. BC (other than Whistler) is still a better value. Some of the powder highway resorts are great bargain deals with low key towns to stay in.

Lol Jackson is only about 6000 feet. Good lord if someone gets elevation sickness from that I can’t imagine if they went to Breck or A Basin. Lol.

Lol with some luck 2018 could have been a good year. Every so often you can get a good Nina but that might have been the year and we just got screwed. Most places around us had above normal snow that year. Frankly in the last 40 years our odds of a big year in anything other than a moderate nino are very low. It used to be a neutral was a pretty good enso state also but lately they mostly end up crap too.

Winters like these happen once a decade where everyone outside the northern mountains get screwed.

Unfavorable pac forcing combined with a strong PV. Years where there was a significant pattern flip from warm to cold during winter 1958,1960,1966,1972,1987,1993,1999,2000,2005,2007,2014,2016,2018. There are plenty of flips from cold to warm also. But by New Years the combo of a strong phase 5/6 mjo wave in conjunction with a strong PV coupling with the tpv hinted that this year was at risk to be a total dud. That combo is the leading cause of our total wasted years. This result isn’t a big surprise.

Thanks. JH makes it hard to to get good shots. Gorgeous scenery. Epic terrain. Very nice authentic town also. Probably my favorite US destination. Revelstoke in BC is awesome too but getting there is a mission.

It was a VERY expensive weekend

Video from my Jackson Hole trip https://gopro.com/v/wEZbW9b3ENrOP

I doubt anyone actually expects it to snow

Read my post above. My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals. Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities alone.