psuhoffman

Friend just told me JB stole my March 2018 storm comparison this morning.

You knew this was how this was ending.

Yes. Not all Nina’s are the same. Some can be reasonably cold and active but even in those we still tend to end up about median or slightly below mean snowfall. The reason is the lack of SS and fast NS. There is also usually a lack of NAO blocking in a Nina that’s because the central pac pattern is often similar to this year and that pattern is destructive to high latitude blocking. We have all of that now. The only factor we have is chaos from March. The storm I’m referencing was in March 2018 around March 8 or so. It was a similar late phase between a NS and weak SS wave. Teased my area and especially NE MD then pulled the rug out just a few hours before it would have started. This was the NAM and euro from just 18 hours before the storm. But this was the actual results

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also. It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups. I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east. Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. ETA: if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.

At least I won’t have to waste time I don’t really have on analysis tomorrow.

18z Gefs went the wrong way.

EPS is very close to what we need. GFS not so much.

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase.

This is probably just that “close miss” I said was inevitable just to inflict the most pain possible (Although my money was on a perfect track rainstorm but there is time for that later). On the other hand I can see the complexity giving guidance issues and an argument to be made for a more tucked in secondary once the phase happens. One key could be a stronger SS wave that can creep further north so that the baroclinic zone isn’t wrecked and way out east when the NS dives in. The NAM is likely wrong but if that was even close there would likely be a second “colder” round of precip from the coastal. The phasing is just starting at 84 on the NAM but it was likely to look good after.

Who cares it would be like 1/2” even if it was cold smoke. We need a much faster phase/capture and tucked in secondary to develop heavy banding to overcome the torched boundary. But I don’t mind because I’m uninterested in a cartopper from bands of light snow showers anyways. March is go big or go home time for me. I’m purely chasing dynamic thump events at this point.

We are getting inside the range where it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo.

Busy. This is probably the busiest time of year for me. State test prep, curriculum planning for next year, yearly sped meetings, spring observations all hit at once. Plus I’m an admin for summer school and the planning for that starts now. But ive has one eye on it for a while. Just not watching every run come in. I perk once a day. This is an example of how flukes can happpen in March. No other time would this have any chance. The longwave pattern would be all wrong without the shirt wavelengths and added potential energy of March giving this a shot to amplify in virtually no space. Its also complicated. We need some phasing and we need it to happen sooner rather than later. Then there are boundary temp issues. We’re dealing with the play between the SS and NS and we meee them to play nice. That doesn’t end well here most of the time but once in a while we get lucky. And the issue with March is the added volatility can give and take. Long lead tracking is useless. It would be very hard answer a very stable blocking regime for guidance to resolve these type chaos induced scenarios at long leads. So I see it. I’m watching. But I’m not wasting a ton of time on it until we’re into real range. If it’s still there on tonight’s runs tomorrow you will see me start to actually break down the scenarios with deeper analysis.

It’s a double barrel low with a primary from the initial SS wave way out east and a redevelopment closer to the coast. That can work. Not saying it will here though. On an ens mean it won’t show well. But you know that and are just being a smart ass. But some others might not realize that.

I suppose this is worth keeping an eye on...even if it is likely just teasing us.

12z EPS looks better wrt SLP, H5, qpf, but the snowfall is pretty much identical...seems to be because some of the really amped solutions are rain.

hmmm at first glance the EPS actually seems to have improved

One thing to keep an eye on...all guidance is hinting at an inverted trough feature associated with this system. Those are incredibly difficult for guidance to resolve at range...and those can sometimes produce some fluky results, especially in spring. The palm sunday blizzard being the ultimate example. It's one thing that could lead to a surprise somewhere and worth at least watching for.

The storm you are talking about never looked good for us...it was obvious it was going to stay to our south from 5 days out.

That phenomenon isnt just the gods toying with us though imo....there are always going to be adjustments from long range and trends one way and another...but when we start off so far from good...its likely when there are good trends they won't get there for us...they will simply make the miss look closer for a time before slipping away again.

You knew this was how it was going to go...trend better for 3 days until we just needed one more bump in our favor to be looking good...and then it would start to slide the wrong way.

When I drove into the CT blizzard in 2013 I spend a lot of the time digging people out. Amazed me why some thought it was a good idea to drive into 3 feet of snow in the vehicle they had with no shovel and obviously no experience driving in much snow.

Lol. I doubt anyone is waiting with baited breath for each run. But even in this crap year it’s still possible to fluke into some kind of frozen event in the next 4 weeks. It’s not likely and even if it happens it’s likely a minor event but for some it’s still worth a quick glance once in a while.

You could make it harder to attack you if you didn’t post absurd nonsense. You recently criticized us for not using analogs when the long range and seasonal thread is filled with analog discussions. I made a post months ago showing the analogs to this year and how awful they were. And many others said similar. Just because you didn’t read it...which is fine but then to criticize a thread you obviously don’t bother to actually read makes you look bad. You make rants about NWP (like it hadn’t improved in the last 20 years) that are easily disproven as false. You make up crazy conspiracy theories that insult the integrity of some of our best professionals in here who would have to be part of that conspiracy, ignoring the insult to logic that is your theory. Then you start this thread acting like there was and is no way to know what went wrong when we have been discussing that for weeks now and this exact type season has happened before and we do and have known “what went wrong”. Sorry but you make yourself an easy target.

Gfs has my big rainstorm from a storm that would have been snow a week earlier. Lol

@C.A.P.E. Tenman and this thread is absurd Weve known for months this winter was a turd numerous posters said without a lot of luck how bad this season was going to suck he complains we don’t use analogs obviously he didn’t read the long range blogs a central pac ridge +AO is crap once that set in we knew it was a wrap but he is still trying to figure what went wrong Long after the rest of us moved on but I’m sure he won’t listen to me And blame it on a government conspiracy.