psuhoffman

EPS is very close to what we need. GFS not so much.

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase.

This is probably just that “close miss” I said was inevitable just to inflict the most pain possible (Although my money was on a perfect track rainstorm but there is time for that later). On the other hand I can see the complexity giving guidance issues and an argument to be made for a more tucked in secondary once the phase happens. One key could be a stronger SS wave that can creep further north so that the baroclinic zone isn’t wrecked and way out east when the NS dives in. The NAM is likely wrong but if that was even close there would likely be a second “colder” round of precip from the coastal. The phasing is just starting at 84 on the NAM but it was likely to look good after.

Who cares it would be like 1/2” even if it was cold smoke. We need a much faster phase/capture and tucked in secondary to develop heavy banding to overcome the torched boundary. But I don’t mind because I’m uninterested in a cartopper from bands of light snow showers anyways. March is go big or go home time for me. I’m purely chasing dynamic thump events at this point.

We are getting inside the range where it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo.

Busy. This is probably the busiest time of year for me. State test prep, curriculum planning for next year, yearly sped meetings, spring observations all hit at once. Plus I’m an admin for summer school and the planning for that starts now. But ive has one eye on it for a while. Just not watching every run come in. I perk once a day. This is an example of how flukes can happpen in March. No other time would this have any chance. The longwave pattern would be all wrong without the shirt wavelengths and added potential energy of March giving this a shot to amplify in virtually no space. Its also complicated. We need some phasing and we need it to happen sooner rather than later. Then there are boundary temp issues. We’re dealing with the play between the SS and NS and we meee them to play nice. That doesn’t end well here most of the time but once in a while we get lucky. And the issue with March is the added volatility can give and take. Long lead tracking is useless. It would be very hard answer a very stable blocking regime for guidance to resolve these type chaos induced scenarios at long leads. So I see it. I’m watching. But I’m not wasting a ton of time on it until we’re into real range. If it’s still there on tonight’s runs tomorrow you will see me start to actually break down the scenarios with deeper analysis.

It’s a double barrel low with a primary from the initial SS wave way out east and a redevelopment closer to the coast. That can work. Not saying it will here though. On an ens mean it won’t show well. But you know that and are just being a smart ass. But some others might not realize that.

I suppose this is worth keeping an eye on...even if it is likely just teasing us.

12z EPS looks better wrt SLP, H5, qpf, but the snowfall is pretty much identical...seems to be because some of the really amped solutions are rain.

hmmm at first glance the EPS actually seems to have improved

One thing to keep an eye on...all guidance is hinting at an inverted trough feature associated with this system. Those are incredibly difficult for guidance to resolve at range...and those can sometimes produce some fluky results, especially in spring. The palm sunday blizzard being the ultimate example. It's one thing that could lead to a surprise somewhere and worth at least watching for.

The storm you are talking about never looked good for us...it was obvious it was going to stay to our south from 5 days out.

That phenomenon isnt just the gods toying with us though imo....there are always going to be adjustments from long range and trends one way and another...but when we start off so far from good...its likely when there are good trends they won't get there for us...they will simply make the miss look closer for a time before slipping away again.

You knew this was how it was going to go...trend better for 3 days until we just needed one more bump in our favor to be looking good...and then it would start to slide the wrong way.

When I drove into the CT blizzard in 2013 I spend a lot of the time digging people out. Amazed me why some thought it was a good idea to drive into 3 feet of snow in the vehicle they had with no shovel and obviously no experience driving in much snow.

Lol. I doubt anyone is waiting with baited breath for each run. But even in this crap year it’s still possible to fluke into some kind of frozen event in the next 4 weeks. It’s not likely and even if it happens it’s likely a minor event but for some it’s still worth a quick glance once in a while.

You could make it harder to attack you if you didn’t post absurd nonsense. You recently criticized us for not using analogs when the long range and seasonal thread is filled with analog discussions. I made a post months ago showing the analogs to this year and how awful they were. And many others said similar. Just because you didn’t read it...which is fine but then to criticize a thread you obviously don’t bother to actually read makes you look bad. You make rants about NWP (like it hadn’t improved in the last 20 years) that are easily disproven as false. You make up crazy conspiracy theories that insult the integrity of some of our best professionals in here who would have to be part of that conspiracy, ignoring the insult to logic that is your theory. Then you start this thread acting like there was and is no way to know what went wrong when we have been discussing that for weeks now and this exact type season has happened before and we do and have known “what went wrong”. Sorry but you make yourself an easy target.

Gfs has my big rainstorm from a storm that would have been snow a week earlier. Lol

@C.A.P.E. Tenman and this thread is absurd Weve known for months this winter was a turd numerous posters said without a lot of luck how bad this season was going to suck he complains we don’t use analogs obviously he didn’t read the long range blogs a central pac ridge +AO is crap once that set in we knew it was a wrap but he is still trying to figure what went wrong Long after the rest of us moved on but I’m sure he won’t listen to me And blame it on a government conspiracy.

There was a man in Delaware who loved snow I told him dude you got to go Somewhere up north I would find henceforth For the sake of your sanity oh and lay off the Hannity The population density might be crappier but you will be much happier In a place where the nao isnt needed to get snow so for the love of god GO

I doubt we get anything BUT your looking at the wrong thing. The initial SS wave is going to slide out south. Even if it did come up it’s not cold enough without the NS anyways. It’s the NS system diving in a day later that “could” phase and spark redevelopment along the coast. That’s the thing to watch. It’s very low probability but it’s a better chance than that SS wave.

But you are ignoring climate change. If you look at the trends it is normal now. Go back and look at the patterns the last 100 years. The good years aren’t changing wrt frequency or totals but the bad years are getting worse. 50 years ago a bad year was 10”. Now most bad years struggle to get to 5 or 7” and the frequency of below 5” winters is going up. Since 2000 (not including this year yet) we have had 13 non nino years. In those years 12/13 were below avg and the median snowfall is 7.5”. Furthermore 5 were below 5”. The new normal for non nino years is for most to be pretty awful. Because that is a new phenomenon that is getting worse everytime we get a bad run (which are common even in the old climate to get 3-5 year bad periods only now the bad years are worse) we will likely challenge the “worst period ever” thing you are clinging too. But is it “not normal” when it’s been happening and trending this way for 20+ years now?

This is gonna hurt

You’re here too

My educated guess was purely probabilities based. Since 2000 we’ve had 7 nino years. 5/7 ninos were above avg (71%) with a mean of 25.1” and median of 18.3”. But currently the odds do not favor a nino next year. In the 13 non ninos since 2000 1/13 (8%) were above avg with a mean of 9” and a median of 7.5”. So currently if we get anything other than a nino odds say there is a 92% chance of below avg snowfall and 7.5” is the most likely statistical outcome. So I said 5-10”. It’s a WAG purely based on statistical probability. Sorry if I didn’t incorporate enough CFS MJO for you.