psuhoffman

Time for another perfect track rain storm like yesterday and tomorrow. That was the easiest call I ever made.

I’ve been avoiding this mostly because it’s not our typical inconsequential banter and I don’t want to squabble when lives are at stake. But one thing for the people minimizing this to consider when comparing this to typical flu statistics. With flu we do not take the drastic measures most of the world is with this. So yes the numbers in China might look comparable to a flu season except China had to go into lockdown to achieve that result. You are failing to take into account what the numbers would look like if we acted like this was just flu and let it run it’s course. Now exactly what they would be is debatable and if you want to throw your 2 cents around wrt that fine...but it’s intellectually dishonest to compare infectious disease numbers when drastic measures are taken to contain a virus to numbers over a longer period of time when almost no societal measures are taken to stop the spread. If we used that method we could argue Ebola isn’t as bad as flu since most times when it pops up we take serious measures to contain it before it spreads and kills tens of thousands.

Poconos

We have no control over it so just relax and see what happens. If this basic pac base state persists in the means another 3-4 years at that point I would begin to accept maybe it’s a permanent (or semi permanent) climate shift. At that point if you want to see snow regularly in winter you know you need to move north. I’m skeptical this is truly a permanent shift. We are due for a shift in the AO base state. If we don’t see that in the next handful of years then I would worry.

I think the pacific winter base state pattern has been destructive to getting NAO blocking. In general we have seen a persistent pac ridge. (Notice there the pac ridge is finally eradicated and up goes the NAO ridge). That ridge tightens the thermal gradient to its north promoting a faster northern jet that will fight attempts to transport heat poleward thus prevents ridging. At times in the last 7 years that ridge shifted north enough that it created a favorable epo pattern. But other than that the only winter NAO blocking we’ve had in the last 7 years was during the super nino and very late in 2018 following a SSW that coupled with the TPV. So long as a huge pacific ridge is the dominant pattern it doesn’t help. There is a correlation between the warm mjo phases, that pac ridge, and +NAO. Unfortunately there has been some speculation that longer term climate changes might be driving the tendency for that dominant configuration. I’m skeptical it lasts that much longer but we will see.

The period right around the end of March early April has some chance at a fluke frozen event. The pattern isn’t awful. We have had plenty of minor snows into early April. But history suggests it will likely require getting hit flush and even then will be marginal and likely not significant. Not a good long lead tracking scenario. But not ruling out seeing more flakes.

@losetoa6 the bleeding turned into a full scale hemorrhage this run. The old gfs used to simply have a major cold thus south bias with everything so it was easy to adjust. Now it’s more nuanced. There are setups when north isn’t always a likely. But with an amplifying system in a progressive flow and retreating cold a north adjustment is a good bet the final 72 hours. When the system started to trend more amplified 2 days ago I wanted to see us on the northern fringe of snow. When at day 4 we were on the southern fringe I expected this to fail. Even the euro has a cold bias in a progressive pattern at range it’s just not as bad as the gfs. Just explaining the rationale for my pessimism.

I admire your ability to be excited by the prospects of a relatively insignificant frozen event. I should be clear I am commenting on our chances at a meaningful snowfall. I could still see our area get a slushy inch or two before being washed away by rain...but if that happens and PA gets 6”+ to me that will be just one more knife in the back from this winter. At this point if we’re not going to get an actual legit storm I’d rather it be warm out and I saw and still see our chances of getting more than a minor accumulation washed away by rain as extremely low. Not impossible but unlikely. But please don’t let my lack of interest ruin your enjoyment of a minor frozen event.

Setups matter. North trends don’t happen if a storm is de amplifying. And that doesn’t always mean arctic cold. A storm can shear out or be suppressed by a compressed flow. A north trend doesn’t happen if there is strong blocking or a northern stream feature that’s compressing the flow over top. But in a progressive pattern with an amplifying system a north trend the final 72 hours is still a good bet.

Being on the southern fringes of projected snowfall at day 3-5 absent blocking is never ever where you want to be. I could run off a long list of similar setups where even the euro was too far south at 72-100 hours with the southern edge of snow. We were never where I wanted to see guidance even on the best runs. The trend north happened exactly how/when I expected.

Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic.

Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic.

I would love the latest trends if I was in northern PA

The 12z icon shows what I’m talking about. Stronger system. Faster onset. Better thump of precip. But all rain. The north shift of the entire thermal gradient finally overcame what the benefits from those other factors can compensate for. If I had to bet that’s where this is heading.

To a point the north shift in the thermal boundary can be offset by better dynamic cooling or faster onset but only to a point. If the north trend continues we won’t like the end result.

Guidance overall is bleeding warmer each run. It’s been offset for now by a stronger system dynamically cooling the column (for the nw areas) but if the north trend continues the end won’t be good.

April fools snowstorm on gfs

Noted. You can feel better than everyone else now. Moving on.

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once. In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care. We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away. We aren’t special biologically. The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it. Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence.

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem.

The mortality rate is no doubt lower. But that’s true of most viruses because we never have a true number of all cases. Even the flu, how many people go undiagnosed each year. The real mortality rate is likely lower for that also. The real issue isn’t necessarily the mortality rate though. It’s preventing a sudden spike is cases that would collapse our healthcare system. Then people can die of other things due to lack of medical care. Because we have no vaccine and no natural immunity in the population to this it’s dangerous for that reason. It can spread rapidly and get lots of people sick at once over burdening our system.

I applilogize for how my statement came off. Please give me a chance to fully explain. Stupid isn’t confined to any political ideology. And you by no means fall into that category. I know your political leanings and I respect that and have no issue with it. I have good friends who are conservative. My criticism wasn’t aimed at conservatives, it was aimed at conservative media that for some reason (maybe they saw this as a threat to Trumps re-election) spent months telling people this was a hoax or a liberal conspiracy to hurt Trump. I think that is a problem now in trying to convince everyone to make personal sacrifices for the larger good. If people think this is a hoax they aren’t going to alter their behaviors. That message by some right wing media was irresponsible imo. That’s not the fault of the people who got that message. And liberals would fall prey to the same type of ploy. I’m not ignorant that there are similar issues on the left. I’ve seen liberal memes based on lies spread also. I get irked by CNN and MSNBC when they are trying too hard to attack the right instead of just conducting a fair interview and reporting news. I was mad the other day when CNN had Pence on and wasted the whole time trying to get shots in about Trumps stumbles at the PC rather than ask substantive questions about the current situation. Had the liberal media spent the last 2 months telling everyone this was a Trump hoax I’m sure many liberals would have the same attitude based on misinformation right now. And the left leaning media HAS been reporting this in a sensationalist style trying to hype for ratings imo. That’s no better and spreads panic and now you can’t buy toilet paper! The real problem imo is our media just plain sucks. Both sides. The fact that there are sides to “news” is the problem! The news has become propaganda on both sides and because of that we’ve lost trust in information. It’s a serious problem and this current situation highlights that. Im sorry my initial post came off the way it did. The way I said it was wrong. The larger issue here isn’t one political side but that our media became more entertainment and partisan propaganda than news and its hurting us...now especially.

@WxWatcher007 btw how is your mother doing? Take care of yourself and your loved ones.

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way. How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months? I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all. I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media.

A -NAO isn’t always a deep eastern trough but anything that tries to amplify will likely be forced south somewhat in winter in that look. Just in time to be too late.