psuhoffman

Fringed

2013/14 is interesting because if you ignore the central equatorial pacific (raging Nina right now) the rest of the global SST anomaly patterns are very similar. 2013 Now

Gfs had a better week than the euro. Euro has been trending towards a more Gfs like solution this weekend and Eps caved to the Eastern ridge day 9/10 that the gefs picked up on 36 hours ago.

It is day 2 so...

I don’t look at synoptic details past 100 hours but if that Baffin block day 7 on the euro is correct we should get opportunities

Don’t have a lot of time today but it’s a very good look pretty much the whole run.

As long as you mean Ant and not the accuweather HM

The guidance backed off some on the mjo wave today and so mid month looks a lot colder. Way too soon to draw any conclusions yet. Today was a good trend though.

Lol it got that one storm in 2006 and has been living off it ever since.

Yup...that aged well

For 5 minutes maybe. I mean you complained 2010 was a bust in the 5 weeks between epic snow blitzes then again in early March because it didn’t snow again after Feb 10. ETA: it’s ok. That’s you man. I’m not trying to pick on ya just saying...

I predict you won’t be satisfied either way

That was a statement that if this indeed is only transient (which is still unclear) it won’t do is much good. We may get a favorable period before it breaks down. But we are wasting a week of a pretty good H5 look first.

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down.

Build a 5000 ft house and hang out on your roof.

Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? It’s gonna move northeast from WV through NC.

Been doing family holiday stuff and catching up on work and didn’t post but the other day when I glanced at the actual eps members it appeared to me the breakdown was more due to a significant but minority camp of solutions that re-established the Nina pattern and went crazy with a +NAO and conus ridge. That camp was washing out the other members that still had a more favorable look. I rarely have time to dig that deep anymore but the mean cam sometimes be misleading. That said I’m guarded about mid December due to hints the mjo wants to amplify near the MC. That could return is to the Nina puke pattern. What I’m interested in seeing is if that is transient or locks in.

Unfortunately only Snowshoe is likely to be open before mid December. They are opening Dec 4 but don’t expect much terrain. They have to build base and it’s been too warm. 10-20” of powder won’t help too much if there is no base down on the trail under it. But if you just want to see some fresh snow and teach the tikes on the bunny hill that could be a good option. The other mid atl hills with less resources for snowmaking will likely take even longer to get up and running.

Just curious...we panic when it seems like we might get no snow at all. Do they panic at the first hints they might not get 100” this season? lol

It’s a long shot but the para Gfs 0z evolution is probably the only shot at snow here from later this week. Keeping the system split and having the lead wave pass then amplify and pull on some cold for the STJ system right behind it. The wrapped up bomb idea has no chance to work out since there is no cold in front and an amplifying phased system will end up near the thermal gradient.

Incredibly anomalous events usually are the result of equally anomalous larger scale pattern drivers that guidance can more easily identify at range.

Anyone putting emotional investment in a storm 150h out with that kind of convoluted h5 progression deserves whatever heartache they get.

We have had some good blocking periods in strong Nina’s. They aren’t always wall to wall trash. One way this winter could turn out ok would be if the enso suppresses the strong MC convection we have suffered from recently due to the IO and western PAC SSTs, but at the same time the rare (for a Nina) warmth in the northeast PAC short circuits the typical Nina response wrt the central pac ridge and subsequent western Canada trough. Not saying I believe that’s the most likely result as of now. Just one plausible hypothetical way this winter ends up a fond memory. I’m skeptical of anything long range honestly. Nothing in our records correlates to this level of warmth, especially in the SSTs. There is a lot of volatility in previously thought to be stable pattern drivers like the QBO. Enso correlations have been less reliable. We’ve seen some odd combinations. Lots of extremes. It’s obvious that overall odds skew warm in any given period. But that doesn’t mean we won’t ever get cold snowy periods and I personally feel way less confident in predicting when and how they come very far in advance given the current state of things. I won’t speak for others, I am sure there are those way more skilled than I, but I do not have much confidence in anything super long range either way right now. I don’t mind that though. Makes things more exciting imo.

The MJO living in high amp warm phases waa a big part of our problems recently. One positive of a strong Nina is typically that suppresses the MJO.