psuhoffman

It hasn’t rained here in about 20 minutes. Good thing we are already sheltering in place.

So what we have is a situation with two scenarios ... 1. Every medical and infectious disease expert on the planet is wrong 2. You are wrong Just so I can properly weigh the probabilities for both scenarios what is your formal training and qualifications in the infectious disease field?

Here we go...

You must have a very low opinion of the medical profession.

I noticed you didn’t even attempt to defend any of the nonsense garbage from your last line of attack and transitioned to something completely different.

I’ve had a ton of yard work to do. Finally caught up on projects that kept getting put off. But as of now my district is transitioning to distance learning. The set up is going to be intense but after we get the bugs worked out and everything’s up and running I’ll probably only be really working a few hours a day. But at least it’s something.

We transitioned my 20 month old out of her crib today. We left the door open a crack so she could come get us if she wakes up and gets scared or confused...she immediately gets out of bed and pulls the door shut behind us. She apparently skipped right to the teen phase.

The people saying that have some issues. First to think the entire medical community globally would be so incompetent to over react to such an extent...and to ignore the fact that such extreme measures were implemented to limit covid19 that are not employed for flu when comparing the two is a joke. The cognitive dissonance it takes to ignore those 2 gaps in their logic is astounding. Hopefully the bug you had a while back was it and you are in the clear now. Stay safe my friend.

Long version: The climate is shifting but you’re using the wrong indicators. What happened this year wasn’t out of the normal. Actually a year like this was due. Since 1950 there have been 6 years with less snow here than this year and 7 with less than 15”. Right now I’m somewhere around 12”. That’s an avg of one sub 15” year every 7.5 years. But it’s been since 2002 since we had one. That’s 17 years. We were very due. Plus many of those awful years were pattern matches to this year. This result happened every 10 years or so even in the old climate when this type of pattern happened. When we start to see anomalously low snowfall results in what used to be snowier patterns that would be a better sign of climate change than what you are referencing. Short version: you are an idiot

I’ve had at least one warning criteria snowfall every year I’ve been here since 2006...even this year.

If this was winter...I actually think this has trended the way we want the last couple runs. The upper track is about perfect now. We just need it to amplify more. Not that impossible a get from 5 days. But it won’t matter either way.

It would have been plenty cold enough 4 weeks ago. Most of our biggest blocking regime snowstorms aren’t arctic cold. 1996 was rare in that regard. Way more often they are cold enough but not super cold. Many of them even looked marginal temp wise from range like feb 2010 and Jan 2016. A 40 degree rain now would have been a 30 degree snow a month ago.

Congrats! Take the wins where you can get them...

I’m not surprised we aren’t choosing the more “equitable” solution. We haven’t much cared about equity economically in a long time! And no I’m not talking about equity of outcomes. I’m not a communist. Everyone won’t win in a free market “game”. And I’m not going to get political and debate what we should do about that issue. But we don’t even seem to care much about setting up a system with equity of opportunity. The irony imo is if we didn’t have a system so skewed to advantage the consolidation of wealth we wouldn’t need as many of the need based programs that so many who help shape the system don’t like.

It was sunny today!!! Thanks I’ll contact twitter and see how to fix that. I don’t really use twitter that much but out of boredom I trolled some Russian Trolls yesterday...then suddenly my account gets hacked. Amazing coincidence.

I know just imo the April blocking thing is overblown some. If it’s a sunny day barring some Uber rare arctic shot it’s likely going to be 50-55 degrees. That’s not that bad. It was 55 with a breeze here today and felt great outside in the sun. 55 vs 70 isn’t worth all the worry. And if it’s a rainy day yea a 40 degree rain sucks more than a 50 degree rain but either way I’m not going to be out in it so who cares.

Yea but would you want to be outside in a normal April pattern when it’s 52 and raining? Either way a rainy day in April is miserable.

Very sorry. I hope things bounce back for you quickly when this is over. I’m in better shape than many and feel lucky but a significant portion of my earnings are “extras” that I do which are paid as stipends and not part of my base pay and my wife is on leave and not getting paid. So for now so things are a lot tighter than usual.

I teach economics, I’m fully aware of what they are trying to do. I’m just saying imo this isn’t the best way. If we assume we are going to continue running the markets and economy then yes we have no choice but to inject massive amounts of cap into the system. But they aren’t simply printing money for the reasons you understand. They are borrowing it or reappropriating it mostly. The interest on that will then eat up more of our tax revenues. We could just print the money but then we cause inflation as you said. Most people don’t realize it’s the production and value of your resources that matters not cash. The issue with doing it this way is inequity. By continuing a “free market” economy while mandating huge sectors of the market shut down you are creating enormous inequities between industries and individuals that will cause instability going forward. Some will be irreparably hurt no matter how much stimulus we do. On the other hand if you temporarily freeze the economy and transition necessary industry to command controls and subsidization until this is over there is much less inequity when we restart. So long as you freeze all debt payments on both ends, both to and from financial institutions, they will emerge as intact as they were. Same with businesses and individuals for the most part. Problem is there are some institutions actually making a profit during all this and they don’t want to lose that. This will allow the markets and financial sector to operate and continue making a profit but at the expense of severe inequities to others. The other option is most simply come out where they were going in but it requires the markets and financial institutions to pause and lose several months of profits. But since they wouldn’t actually lose money just potential profits that is a much more equitable way to deal with this imo.

I don’t consider this political because the stimulus bill is bipartisan and this is in no way an attack on one side or the other what I’m about to say pertains to general reaction by EVERYONE...I’m just genuinely confused by the reaction and the plan. Many other nations have totally suspended rent/mortgages/utilities/debt for months. How many people pay less than 1200 for all that over say 3 months? Imo what we just got is way less than what most governments are doing plus we will have to pay for this someday vs the idea of simply freezing then rebooting the economy when this is over. Yet people seem genuinely grateful if not downright giddy over this. Am I missing something?

So we’re at 2 storms that would have been decent snow events a month ago. Over under on how many more we get in the next 3 weeks...I say at least 2 more. We might even eek out a very minor snow event from a storm that would have been 1-2 feet in winter just to rub salt in the wound.

Here too, it has been slush bombs when heavier bands move through.

He advocated government workers lose pay because other people are hurting. He isn’t alone unfortunately. I find it odd that when people are struggling some react by trying to pull others down rather than figure out how to lift those in need up. Will it somehow make the people struggling feel better if everyone else gets screwed also? Whenever I’ve had problems I never thought the solution was how to put someone else into my same predicament. Something about our society I’ll never get.

The euro scenario with a better track could yield some snow. It’s getting too late for a big snow even up here but we’ve had minor snows in April several times since I’ve been up here.

You don’t have to let it get to you.