psuhoffman

NAM and GFS on their own with the heavier precip. I’m actually thinking my fail will be due to lack of heavy rates not temperatures. It actually looks cold enough overnight if we get heavy rates up here. But the wave looks more and more pathetic each run.

True but it’s actually because the euro is weak sauce with the wave. If it had heavy qpf like the NAM it likely would have higher snowfall also. Not saying I buy any of it but the guidance is very cold for this late. Runs that have enough heavy precip to mix out the boundary layer warmth carry snow east of the mountains. Euro was doing that to.

Just wish predicting the weather was as easy as predicting that model.

@showmethesnow sorry what I was trying to say was that I am skeptical of the virus being here in December because with absolutely no containment measures in place it likely would have spread rapidly out of control then.

@showmethesnow I have no doubt the episode began in China prior to their reports. What I meant is we didn’t see that type of spread here that we likely would have absent any measures at all to contain in December. When this hit various areas it wasn’t something that went undetected. China then Iran, Italy, Spain, NYC...places this hit before they were ready to contain it spread rapidly and was easily apparent something was wrong. I haven’t seen evidence of that kind of thing here back in December.

Maybe but then why didn’t we see what happened in China in other places until much later?

But it was windy yesterday

If this survives as a threat long enough to get NAM’d that’s a win imo.

Right now the gfs op is suppressed. Given it’s extreme cold bias not shocking. Im not kidding that I expect at some point it will come around and tease us with some epic ridiculous snowy solution before it realizes its mid April.

My 5 year olds been outside all afternoon. Can’t convince him it’s not nice out lol.

When the gfs finally jumps on board and has the storm it will be way too cold and tease everyone for a couple runs.

How dare you... some people need to find their happy place

You do know that people have the right to reply to your posts right? Just making sure you aren’t confused about how this works... No one can make you feel anything. And feelings aren’t right/wrong they’re just feelings. You can have your opinion. But I’m entitled to my opinion and I have the right to post my opinions too. And my opinion is you need to chill out. You do this every spring. We can have 5 nice days in a row but everytime we get a chilly or rainy day in late March or April you act like the sky is falling. And sometimes you don’t even wait for a bad dat...one year you were wasting time complaining about a day 10 model slowing a not nice day (that never came) when it was beautiful out that day. You can feel any way you want but in MY OPINION you get triggered way too easy about this every year.

And you need to lighten up in general. Yea today isn’t pleasant to be out. But we just had a bunch of awesome days, tomorrow will be ok and in 48 hours it will be gorgeous. So just wait. Why get upset over one not great day. It’s not like it’s January and you might have to wait weeks to get a warm day. Enjoy the nice days. Find something inside to do on the not nice days...or wear a coat.

Dude you’re not the only one with 1st Amendment rights. You get to say what you want. And other people have the right to respond and disagree with you. This isn’t your personal bulletin board.

And yet it’s 50 right now in Baltimore. Most will have a high in the low 50s today. Yes the wind sucks but I was just outside doing yard work and even up here with a coat it’s not like winter brutal cold. Tomorrow will be upper 50s and Sunday almost 70! I think we will survive 24 hours of “chilly”.

Congrats! Do you have a view of Mr Washington? Wildcat just a few miles south of there is one of my favorite east coast ski resorts.

It’s cold aloft. Get under a convective band and the cold can get pulled down close enough to the surface to snow even in the 40s.

so sorry

Also most locally spend funds circulate back in taxes every few years. It's why i laugh when people freak out about something like spending too much on snow removal one year. Yea but within 3 years all that money is back because every time it changes hands it gets taxed.

UGH...so sorry. I don't want to assume what others situations are...but how hard should it be to simply make your way to your computer at a particular time each day? I have had a few internet issues at times...got booted...but my students know I will log right back in if that happens. I also offer some evening hours because a few of my students picked up delivery jobs to help out at home and I want them to be able to participate. But with younger children that is obviously not a problem. Obviously if this instructor continues to act "unprofessionally" don't hesitate to talk to them and contact the school if need be. As a teacher I am frustrated when I hear things like that...it makes all of us look bad.

It's a shame even our leaders don't truly understand how the economy functions. This will only hurt revenues more. I know local jurisdictions are pressed more since they don't have the power to manipulate the money supply like the federal government does, but if we really understood economics, during times of crisis the federal government would release emergency funds even more liberally to local jurisdictions. The negative effects/inflation from over saturating the market with currency will be offset by the downward market pressures right now so we don't have to worry as much about "balancing the budget" as we would during a normal economic period of growth. But if you cut jobs you are cutting tax revenues also. Estimates can vary based on how you calculate it and how far down the tree you go but about 40% of our revenues come from jobs that are at least somewhat dependent on government spending. That's why the "just cut spending" to balance the budget mantra is bunk. If we have a 1 trillion dollar deficit and you simply cut 1T in government spending...you would also cause a drastic cut in tax revenues and would still end up with a deficit. The better way to balance would be to keep spending steady and grow your way out as revenues increase each year. Otherwise you keep hurting people without any benefit to the deficit. In times of crisis like this balancing isn't even as necessary as rapid inflation is less likely due to increased infusions of currency since its being offset by the negative impacts of the crisis.

Every district has their own plan. For Baltimore, we gave out pretty extensive work packets first at our school then at food distribution centers to cover the last few weeks. Starting this week (for 4th Quarter) we are online using google classroom and we meet with students live several times a week using collaborate. I am posting assignments pretty much the same as I would in class, adapting them when needed obviously. I cut the work load down some and am being flexible as we get adjusted...but for me the loss (for students who are choosing to participate) won't be that extreme. There are paper packets also still available for students who do not have access to tech, but we are also offering programs for free internet service, phones and tablets so technically all students could have access if they wanted. Participation so far has been about 70% and honestly that is about what my participation rate was before all this. The biggest issue is the loss of socialization for students, especially younger ones. I have been calling and messaging students frequently to check up on them and see how they are doing. Encouraging them to participate in our live sessions. Some teachers don't want to give out their phone numbers but I have always allowed my students to contact me and it's never been a real issue. Hopefully this doesn't extend to next year but we are already taking steps to prepare in case it does.

The last few days there have been a few ensemble members that dropped so much snow to get my area close to normal for the season...with 90% of the snow coming in April. Obviously that's not going to happen...but its interesting none the less. This is one of the coldest April patterns I've ever seen advertised frankly. Especially given its going to be mid april by the time it comes to fruition. It's a crazy combo of all the cold built up from the strong PV finally discharging after the extreme blocking this week leads to a complete dump into the eastern CONUS next week as it breaks down and the EPO ridge goes up. Basically all that arctic air from the crazy strong PV all winter finally gets released and dumps down. Obviously too late to do much other than make us chilly for a week (yea maybe by some miracle we get some snow...it has happened before but its like a once in 50 years type thing).