psuhoffman

The panic in the obs thread is funny... I could go in there and really blow it up by pointing out "we could really use those 2-3 degrees we've lost in the boundary layer due to warming right about now"

I won about 100 on the Commies last night! Up about 1500 this season. I'm not a big fan of legalized gambling but if they're gonna allow it I'm gonna take advantage. If you are good with math and know enough there are some parleys you can make that are like taking candy from a baby and win like 70% of the time. The best is when you find an inequity that allows you the hedge both sides and win almost no matter who wins by parleying some really obvious things each team needs in order to possibly win the game. Bet both sides and as long as those things hit you win no matter wo wins!

I was just messing around

Just about all the analogs that flipped warm in Feb then cold again, the flip back happened right near March 1 and the snowstorms associated with those years happened in March. Late Feb has kind of been a wasteland around here historically for a while. Who knows why. Random probably.

That's actually a HECS but it's a few days too far out still to get excited yet, but AIFS has been all over that time period and other guidance has popped out the random big hit around there too. It's the period I am most interested in, pattern is relaxing but with a lot of cold still left hanging around. That's often a recipe for us.

Wait until heavy precip arrives to panic. If in a couple Hours it’s pouring rain and still 36 degrees then it’s time to panic.

Drink plenty of fluids

Ninjad. That looks a lot more realistic. Closer to my snow map. I might have to expand my lawsuit to class action.

Wait that isn’t the NAM???

NAMs have never had a handle on this event and gonna go to the grave with their weak sauce idea. For some locations that have mixing issues they might end up right for the wrong reasons but up here that’s gonna bust within the next 2 hours if this keeps up.

It’s not snowing that hard but there are some ginormous flakes. Bodes well for snow growth and ratios.

32/30 Been snowing lightly for about an hour but only sticking to the snow. Just started to pick up with big fluffy flakes now and driveway just caved.

I guess I need to copyright those things

before we start the radar hallucinations... 1am Sim radar 4am sim radar 7am sim radar 10am sim radar

It's not supposed to look like much for another few hours at least...don't spook the usual suspects...we don't need those posts already

I'm suing ECMWF for stealing my snow map

Look at the trend on the GGEM, one more move like this and its a hit

Looking at H5 on GFS and GGEM the Friday storm has room to trend NW, especially if the trough trends slightly more negative and captures...its trending the right way

0z GFS is certainly not boring

I think each wave after Wed has a better chance as the TPV relaxes and moves further NE.

If that trough ends up negative instead of positive, like those two examples, we will get hit

Over the years I might have verified warning snowfall more times when I wasn't under a warning then when I was...

They don't all look that friendly though.... But if the 3k soundings are correct I will bust low along 95, and I won't be shocked if I do. I went low.