psuhoffman

What’s today’s date?

Looking at all the metrics, I mean models, I think Philadelphia is likely to get more “snow” than Washington. I think Washington might keep it close early with a quick hit, but over the course of the game, I mean season, Philadelphia probably pulls ahead to a comfortable lead.

@mitchnick the weeklies were a very snowy run. Stating the second week of Feb straight through into March a solid 1.5-2.5” mean every week. That’s high for a 7 day mean at range.

I’m not sure it’s always the right approach but they clearly have told Hurts to play very safe and just don’t make mistakes. The handful of times they needed to open it up he was able to do it and we’ve seen him pass effectively on the past, they just feel they have such an advantage on both lines they don’t need to play that way. It’s not an accident. They invest so much into both lines. They spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on the line almost every year. 2 years ago they spent 2 first round picks on the D line in the same draft and now both are starters. They have plenty of misses but they invest so much capital in the trenches they end up with an abundance of talent there. It’s a philosophy.

Yea but you can make it fun in other ways. I have a big party with the family when the eagles are in it. They get to see their cousins. We set up games for them. Set off fireworks before the game (and after if they win). I’m getting too old for the go to Philly and run around broad street drunk all night thing although me and my brother did that in 2017! The police were taking hits and doing shots with us! Fun times.

You want analysis of the pattern flip 3 weeks away?

I don’t engage much on social media but my friend told me some skins fans are driving him crazy because they are new to this and have no idea how to talk smack the right way. They’re jumping the shark so to speak. And yes eagles fans are the most aggressive obnoxious of them all just found that funny and maybe pertinent here.

Lol QB can equalize a lot. Also right now with Dean injured your linebackers are also better. You could also argue TE given our best one is playing injured and hasn’t been good since the injury. But yes the eagles have a talent advantage but the best team doesn’t always win.

I am NOT discounting Washington possibly winning...they have a shot, they are playing really well. But I am surprised by the amount of people thinking Washington is somehow "likely" to win. They are on the road, v a team that was better in almost every advanced metric all season. Also seeing way too much made of that 36-33 win when Hurts was out most of the game, their safety got ejected, they committed several bonehead out of character penalties, and their most sure handed receiver dropped an easy pass to ice the game. Is that all really likely to happen again? I think they have a fighting chance...I won't be shocked if they win...but some are acting like they SHOULD win.

this says a lot if you're worried about having the NFL rig the game for you lol BTW on a more serious note...your coach talking about hitting Hurts when the ref crew for the game had one of the highest rates of roughing the passer penalties wasn't that smart. I am not saying there was actually anything wrong with what he said, I have no problem with it personally, its kinda DUH yea hit him if he is running...just saying that coming out with that when you have a league hell bend on protecting the QB and a ref team known for calling roughing calls a lot wasn't a genius move. Sometimes its better to just keep it to yourself.

yea as if any of the people pretending to have a problem with that wouldn't date her if they had the chance

I don't get all the KC hate. Compared to most other really good teams there is a lot less things about them to hate. SF and New England back in the day were way more annoying IMO.

Thought topic for Commanders or Eagles fans... if the devil offered you a snowstorm or a super bowl win...how much snow would it take? As an Eagles fan it would take a LOT of snow...but not saying there isn't a number. Somewhere around 40" I might start to consider it...50 and I probably have to take the snow.

According to the EPS it will be nice and cold and we will be tracking a possible snowfall threat as I watch the Eagles win the Super Bowl.

EPS says "enjoy the 5 day warmup then you go right back into the freezer"

I didn't say that, we could possible score something during the less favorable period...I was just timing up the flip back to what I think is likely to be one more truly cold and possibly snowy period

Regarding the euro weekly products...been thinking about how they typically try to establish a canonical enso look by week 4 almost all the time even when its erroneous. I've also observed they tend to underestimate the MJO past day 15 also. They generally kill the MJO into the COD most of the time or have a very low amplitude wave when in reality it ends up stronger. I wonder if its tendency to do this causes it to rely on "other" factors like enso too much and constantly flip to a boiler plate enso analog look with very little variability.

That's more than fine...into phase 7 by Feb 7th heading towards 8. That would time the flip colder to be by Feb 20th or so.

Maybe 99 was the one that hit the DC area...I wasn't really affected by either I was at PSU those 2 winters. I love Montreal. There was a cute little Irish pub on Bishop or Crescent St...can't remember which.

our best chance at any snow might be that clipper that goes to our north next week...wouldn't be the craziest adjustment I've ever seen to get that south. Not saying its a good shot, just our best shot.

Thought that was 99

I've seen speculation regarding the timing of the TPV and cut off low. IMO that doesn't matter much, it's the amplitude of the trough and ridge that matters. If the amplitude continues to be too great (Deep trough with a huge ridge behind it) the cut off low is simply going to stall and wait then cut once the ridge in over top it. Even if it tried to eject into that deep trough it would get shredded to oblivion in that look. The only way this would work if with a flatter flow over the top allowing the cut off low to eject under it.

We should ask Ji. He is the ultimate arbiter of whether it’s a good winter right?

But I don’t grade winters purely on that number. I had a nice surprise snow in November. I’ve had some snow on the ground most of the winter! If I get one more nice snowstorm, say an 8” storm sometime in Feb or March I’ll give this a B. It’s already a C even without anymore snow. 2 more decent storms and it’s getting close to A territory whether I hit average or not.

I need 21”. That might be hard but a couple of the analog years would get me close. I need 16” though to hit my median which is more realistic.