psuhoffman

2005 we got 2 snows the last week of February. We got a smaller but decent snow a few days after the PD2 blizzard in 2003. We got a 3-5" snowstorm Feb 25 in 2007. North of 70 in MD got a 3-6" snow on Feb 22 in 2011. Feb 21 2015 we got a 4-8" snowstorm across the area. MD got a 2-4" snow on Feb 22 2021.

There were several small snows in some of those years, but the NW parts of our region did much better. There was a well timed follow up wave in Feb 2018 that gave the area 1-4" of snow. 2022 I got 6" from another example of that and the northern 1/3 of the area got 1-4" but 95 just missed out...I think there was about an inch in the cities from that. I know 2019 was a nino officially but it acted more like a nina and had a similar pattern and we got a 3-5" snow from a boundary wave following a cold front during one of the rare cold windows. So its not a total no hope pattern...but if things do progress the way they look...if we don't score during the window around Jan 28-Feb 2, we are probably waiting until March for the next chance at a big snowstorm.

@HighStakes the Walmart 4 miles SE of us only got 3"! Westminster looked like even less...crazy sharp gradient just to our south and east...there was a noticeable difference as soon as you got south of town just a couple miles away from us. We got really lucky, we were pretty much on the edge of where that fgen banding set up. In the end the NW trend almost got us up here too!

If we do go into a milder period in Feb we will probably flip cold in March. Not because JB says so...because the statistics say so. If we look at all cold enso years, including cold neutral, in the last 30 years...and take years where January had a significant cold period and a more poleward pacific ridge, we come up with 8 analogs. Analogs January h5: looks very similar to this year Analog pattern for February Also looks close to what guidance is showing...we did snow in a few of those years in Feb but some of them were pretty lean... But almost all of them flipped cold again for some portion of March and 7/8 years featured a March snowstorm for at least a portion of our region. March...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 11:00 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 MDZ003>005-502-VAZ027>031-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-220300- /O.CAN.KLWX.CW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250123T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.CW.Y.0008.250122T0500Z-250122T1600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Cumberland, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Petersburg, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 1100 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...Cirrus Warning IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Cirrus expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 pm today to 11 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Dull hazy sky conditions with the risk of severe boredom if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Bring electronic devices or card games to avoid boredom.

I'm fine with where it was on that run...noise level changes for that range would have made it a hit. Now back to posting about snow in New Orleans and arguing over the accuracy of thermometers

But for it to end some of the same posters who complain whenever anything that supports warming is even hinted at...need to stop making blatant anti warming posts. It's a two way street...if they don't want us talking about how its getting warmer...they can't keep making posts implying its not.

As long as the AO doesn’t go extremely positive we can still get some snow. The odds of a 6”+ event along 95 go way down but 2-4” type events are definitely still possible.

Ninja’d

Look at the west and central pac. Opposite of recent years. That will adjust colder.

Yes but what makes even more sense is for everyone to use the same scale!

Yes but colors make a 1-2 degree change look more impactful than it actually is. This is like when some freaked out over that one gfs run that decreased QPF by .05 but because it changed blue to green it looked like some huge change.

The scary thing is that 20 year mean doesn’t include 2021-2024 which would skew it even warmer. But in the end it’s not a significant difference to our snow chances. Both are showing temps that are slightly too warm on the whole but indicate enough cold around that with a lucky storm track we can score. It’s not the shut the blinds pattern we feared. And more importantly the gefs and eps continue to trend colder as leads shorten.

Let’s just all agree to use the control

@mitchnick took a min because WxBell doesn’t specify. But Ji posted that wxmodels map that says 20 year mean and it matches the wxbell map for that day perfectly so obviously they use the same mean.

@mitchnick @Ji I figured it out ECMWF and TT are using 1980-2010 climo WxBell is using a 20 year running mean of the last 20 years! So if you want to know how much warming is hurting is just compare the two lol. What was 2-3 degrees above average 30 years ago is now 1-2 degrees below avg lol

On Wxbell they’re labeled as “weeklies” but who knows. I compared the two and they’re just different.

Very different from what’s on Wxbell Here is the same time period

The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March.

@mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted.

Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking

There is a lot of that but sometimes it’s hard to differentiate who is being malicious and who is just stupid.

Its a lost cause. It’s like the “do your own research” people. They find some rando online saying some BS and think “I found something every scientist and expert missed and now I know more about this than everyone who do this as a profession”. Good luck arguing with that level of monumental stupidity.

AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30. Two minor snows as is.