psuhoffman

These 2 features are the big problem. Instead of escaping northeast "clean" just in time...there are 2 pieces of NS energy diving in interacting with the bombing vortex to our northeast. Those pinwheeling features hold the vortex from escaping (fujiwara effect) and squash the heights so that nothing can amplify behind it. The euro has a healthy enough feature out ahead of the upper low to get some light snow up into the area but without solving that bigger problem to our northeast there is a pretty low cap on what this is capable of. But some minor improvements with those features and relax the flow over the top and this could become something. Time is running out though. Most likely we simply get to experience our first fail of the year courtesy of crappy spacing between waves.

If this does get squashed...and not saying it does...we dont know yet, but it would be the suppressive flow behind the bombing storm in Nova Scotia not a high that is the culprit. The upper level flow is pretty compressed and there are too many pieces of energy diving down, we would need a little more space between systems and for the energy to consolidate and phase into the southern feature a little further west. Instead pieces of NS energy are diving down on top of it.

So sorry.

That pretty much sums up a typical day around here

Well...yea but we didn’t even need a high simply not that trough suppressing everything.

we would need there to be more separation then that there. There already is frankly on the guidance now but its still not quite enough.

Are you thinking of the Feb 21 storm? NYC got hit pretty good from that one. Some places in New England got some moderate totals from the Feb 15 2010 event. I think NYC had like 4"...but it wasn't that big a deal up there either. The Feb 21 storm though...that was a monster we just missed. But I had no issues with that...the whole period from late January to March kind of moved linearly imo. The block was at its strongest and healthiest in late January early Feb and each storm shifted a little north in progression from then on as the blocking slowly weakened. I agree the March 2010 storm has some similarity to this. It had two lobes diving into the trough and they ran interference on each other instead of consolidating the energy into one storm. This setup is somewhat similar.

of course having a high in a good spot is preferable. Our simplest path to snow here is overrunning. Anytime we get into needing a perfect upper level pass or phasing and all that jazz it gets complicated. We are a little too far south for all that to go easy for us...and often things come together just a little late for our latitude. But there are examples where things worked absent any real high. Off the top of my head the early Feb storm in 1995 had no high. I remember a storm in January 2001 I think where we got a decent snow with no high. The xmas day 2002 snow (our last true white xmas) had no high. The feb 2006 storm there was some really weak high in new eng but it was only like 1020 which is about what we have in this setup. There wasn't too much of a high, only like 1024 way up in Maine for the January 2011 storm. Sometimes we can work without. But yea it would make it a LOT easier with one.

The op euro has been a little to phase/amped happy lately. Just throwing that out there. I would rather not be relying on the model that has been the most over amped of late being the only guidance showing a decent scenario right now. Everything else is very close, and trending the right way...just warning that the euro has been a little over done lately in the medium range recently

Rgem was about to barrel a miller A up the coast. It was gonna be close though whether it hit the confluence wall or not. We needed it to relax the flow just a bit...but yea it was very interesting.

It’s too stretched out. Need more of the energy consolidated back in IN/KY. It’s not far off.

It’s been trending more progressive the last 48 hours. The big snow for our western fringe zones disappeared. Actually had it been colder we would be freaking out as a 12-20” snow became (in our area) very little at all. But it’s opening the door for the wave behind it. We need just a little more space between waves and we might be able to squeeze in our first legit snowfall of the season.

@DTWXRISK nice write up. Good to see you back!

@WEATHER53 my name is Steve. Everyone can use it. I don’t care. You have made a dozen posts whining and complaining about my rebuttal of your NWP conspiracy nonsense and still you have yet to refute a single thing I said or defend your claims at all. So again, either offer evidence and substantiate your accusations or stop making them! It’s undignified to throw around accusations and attacks on peoples integrity, some of whom are on this forum, without evidence to back it up. And for the love of god stop whining about it. Man up and defend what you said or accept you can’t because it’s BS and move on with your life!

Most haven’t had a snowstorm in almost 2 years and they’re gonna be picky lol If a hot air balloon went overhead flown by a pilot with a bad case of dandruff I’d call it a win at this point.

Lol Ji will be complaining about radar and the back edge before first flakes and how it would have been 30” if it wasn’t moving so fast. If it’s wet snow Mdecoy will be whining it was only 4” on his road because he measures in the middle of the street. If it’s dry Eskimo will be telling us how half of it sublimated by noon the next day. Do I need to continue.

Repeat of last year it is then! Lol Give me a foot of snow during the holiday season and I’ll take whatever else comes as icing.

P27 and call it a winter

Maybe because there is way too much of that going around right now...and in most venues I can’t do anything about it. I’d be screaming into the void. But this is a small enough community that I can push back on that crap here. I can at least draw my little line in the sand and defend it. Yea he is obviously going to believe that BS no matter what but I’m going to call him out on it every time . And it does have impact. At the least it very obviously got him all bent because he can’t answer any of my points!

I think she was referring to my spat with Howard

Early next week is a little more separation from being something.

@WEATHER53 Stop whining to the refs and defend yourself if you think what you said is legit and should be taken seriously. I called you out. What you said was total and complete nonsense. You have said similar garbage for years and I have called you out for it before. It's insulting to the people who work on NWP and you are directly attacking their integrity without a spec of evidence to support your claim. I laid out my evidence and cited specific reasons why what you said is wrong and shouldn't be taken seriously. You have never once offered a defense. You have never refuted a single one of my accusations. You simply play this "I'm being persecuted" nonsense game and whine and complain that you're under attack. You don't want to have your comments refuted...then don't post crazy nonsense like that, and worse, think that crap is somehow immune from reproach and critical analysis. If you think what you said was legitimate and should be taken seriously, defend it. Refute what I said. Offer logical arguments and EVIDENCE to support your claim. If you cannot do that then you shouldn't make accusations like that and spread stupid nonsense.

I do not suffer ignorance. There are plenty of subjects I don't know anything about. But I don't just make up crazy BS and pass it off as legit. Or worse think that crazy nonsense should carry any weight or is somehow above reproach. ETA: I teach constitutional law so its hard not to get into that...my refute wasn't that the constitution is optional...its that the constitution is vague enough in most areas such that its never that simple. During two different periods in our history we locked people up for criticizing the President and courts did not think that violated the 1st Amendment. We totally ignored the 14th Amendment for almost 100 years. Somehow eminent domain didn't protect native tribes. Due Process didn't apply to Japanese Americans in WWII. The 2nd Amendment wasn't an individual right for 200 years and then the courts decided it was. The Constitution has been interpreted, re-interpreted, and manipulated so many times that using it as a concrete end all to any issue is kind of disingenuous IMO. But everyone is entitled to their opinion of how those rights SHOULD be interpreted. And we can have an amicable debate about that...unless you start spouting nonsense like saying the illuminati wrote the Bill of Rights as a way to fool American's into thinking we have freedom so they can subjugate us (not kidding had that come up recently). There is a limit to what I tolerate.

You never even defend what you say. You spout some crazy nonsense then when you’re called on it instead of offering evidence or logical arguments to support your stance you just whine and cry about how someone is picking on you. Weak

Another thing to watch wrt that feature...if it can really bomb out into the 50/50 area it would improve our chances with the Dec 12-15 period.