psuhoffman

Dunno...from a quick glance the best lift is not in the dendritic snow growth zone...but that wouldn't fully explain it. Could be a thickness based algorithm. But wasting a lot of time trying to figure out a very specific detail of a op run at that range that has no chance of being completely accurate is a waste of time anyways. If this was 24 hours out then we could try to parse that...and obviously the simple answer is its a mistake. Why...I don't know enough about their precip type algorithms to say. I don't really use those things to tell me what is going to happen anyways.

I wouldn't waste time looking at soundings at that range.

That was just one of the factors contributing to my extreme lack of confidence in seasonal forecasting lately. Or at least my own ability to make a seasonal forecast. I am sure there are those with a better grasp of things then me. But between the QBO acting erratically, a lower solar minimum then we are used too, an overall warmer profile then we have ever had, and some very unusual SST configurations we have never seen before...I don't feel confident in anything.

Yup...and if anything goes wrong our website is Jay’s Wintery Mix.

Xmas 6z Gefs

I do think climo is getting more hostile, whether that is a shorter or longer term trend I dont want to start that debate here, but the last couple years also skewed that worse because we haven’t been in a favorable pattern too often. Models are getting better. When were in a really awful pattern they shouldn’t show fantasy snow. Go back to March 2018 and Dec 2018/Jan2019 the last time we had a decent pattern and there was lots of fantasy (and some actual) snow.

It’s a long shot but it’s the best chance we’ve had in a long time. Low bar lol. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of wiggle room. We need perfect spacing between systems. Ji was complaining we don’t even get fantasy storms to track anymore. At least he had one run to look at.

Where was she living at the time. Westminster had 11” from that storm. I could see given the circumstances calling that a blizzard! January 2000 is a fond memory but not for the same reason as most. I was manning the weather station at PSU Hazleton the day before that storm hit. I remember looking at the vapor loop and comparing it to the guidance and it just wasn’t matching up. I Kept running the loop and thinking “why wouldn’t that just come up based on the flow”. I convinced my friend of such. I can’t remember the guys name, he replaced Jon Neese when he left psu, but me and my friend were driving the meteorologist who came in to check on the station crazy. He was dismissing it out of hand “No chance the models are that wrong at such short lead”. He didn’t even want to look at what we were trying to show him. Everyone else was focused on the long range progs for what would be the superbowl storm 5 days later. The next day we didn’t even have to say a word. We walked in and just looked at him and he said “I know don’t say it”

You are analyzing details on a 150+ hour op run way more than I will. There is a threat. That is all there is to say at this point. Details will bounce around a lot. But it's going to be a fine line. There isn't a whole lot of wiggle room here.

The rest featured some form of high latitude blocking...some of the more memorable storms or periods in this set... 2 storms during the holiday period in 1970. One a minor event, the second a 4-8" storm around the cities and more NW. an 8" storm in Dec 1973 a 6" storm in Feb 1974 I don't think I need to bother posting the 1996 look.... 3 storms over 10 days in January 2000 The psuhoffman storm and a minor event before it

This was the one anomaly where it did not feature any high latitude blocking...a 3" snow to rain event in January of 1989. But it did feature one of the craziest atlantic bombs I've ever seen which acted as a substitute for a block.

@losetoa6 so for anyone interested in what our snow profile looks like during all snowstorms of 2" or greater during a Nina that peaked at -1 or lower...(this year probably bottomed out around -1.3 This is the composite of all those storms at BWI

boom Ji will be happy... naw who we kidding

@frd There often is a lag time to enso's effects and so I am less optimistic than DT that a rapidly declining cold enso will help us much before March. But...it's a pretty small sample size of rapidly declining cold enso episodes and so it is hard to draw much of any conclusion. He could very easily be correct. I hope he is. I do think march is a wildcard either way. Many Nina's that were totally garbage up until March featured a cold/snowy period in March. It is not universal...1989, 2008, and 2012 were all in the analogs I compiled to this year and were wall to wall garbage winters with no help in March. But 1956, 1976, 1999, 2017, and 2018 all featured a turn to colder with some snow late. I guess "unsure" would be the best way to categorize my feelings on what impact a rapidly collapsing nina will have on our snow chances. Can't hurt though. What I would bank on more then that is simply getting some good high lat blocking before then and not having to wait for a March save. We have scored some good snow periods in Jan and Feb in a Nina but we needed blocking to do it. That's why the current signs up top are so encouraging imo. @CAPE @losetoa6 It's been quite a few years since I did my nina study, I think it was before 2017, so I wanted to refresh my memory. I also expanded my snow study to include all 2" or greater storms at BWI in Dec-Feb during Nina's that peaked at -.1 or greater since 1950. I excluded March because that is kind of a wildcard in a Nina and that is a long way off. Let's hope we aren't heading into March needing to avoid a disaster. Even expanding down to 2" I only found one storm out of 23 (and it was a kinda pathetic 3" to rain) during the 11 moderate or stronger Nina seasons that didn't feature a lot of high latitude help. It is true that a lot of those storms did feature a period of less hostility on the pac side also...but the fact there are almost no examples of even minor snows without blocking to me indicates the break in the pac puke pattern was an effect of the blocking helping to press the TPV out of western Canada or Alaska where it will tend to set up shop and sit otherwise as a response to the central pacific ridge which is a direct effect of the nina. But get a block somewhere in the AO or NAO domain and you can squeeze that feature out of there just enough...retrograde or squash the pac ridge temporarily, and make it work.

For my full study only warning level. I did look at more snowfalls a while ago for Nina specific years...I think I started the cutoff for that at 2". You have to draw the line somewhere...there are way too many 1-2" type events to do a deep analysis of all of them. At least when I am not getting paid for any of this and have to do it on my own very limited time. If I was getting paid to do it I would gladly analyze every cartopper we ever got and break down the pattern. But honestly, its kinda a pathetic state of affairs that we are drooling over the thought of 1" of snow anyways...back when I started the study I was looking at "significant" snowfalls. Due to our lack of any snow at all recently what we call "significant" may have changed since then lol. ETA: including a lot of 1-2" events also would skew the results quite a bit since you can luck into those in a pretty mediocre or bad pattern sometimes...so you end up getting not very useful results.

I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February. It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get.

Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling as we head later in Dec or better into January and February it should work out a few times

The NAO and AO are trending the exact opposite way from this time last year. That’s one way to offset hostile pacific forcing.

Doesn’t matter because it won’t go down exactly like any op at that range but given that h5 I would expect that storm to adjust north some anyways.

Only if you put me in 36”+. I’ve seen numerous 2ft storms up here. Yet to see a 3ft+

@DTWXRISK misunderstood my post to think I was saying we were in a strong Nina. I don’t disagree that if the Nina weakens we could salvage a decent second half. I’m just less confident than him. Enso effects often lag but not always. Either way I see his point and I respect his argument. Plus I hope I’m wrong. I would much rather be wrong with snow than right without. Last year being right didn’t make the awful winter any less awful!

Ask coastal new england how that worked out for them

Its a slight adjustment from a very good pattern actually. If there is just a bit more NAO ridging...the resulting effects would lead to a good look.

Almost as aggravating as you complaining about it

We dont really need to adjust the track so much as the temperature profile. The upper level features track perfect for us. The reason the surface ends up so far north and vertically stacked like that relatively early in its progression is the lack of any cold air. The surface low will try to seek out the baroclinic zone. Lacking one it will end up further north than it would in a colder baroclinic profile. Trust me...adjust the thermals and that surface low would be tracking perfect for us given the rest of the variables on that run. Is the adjustment we would need to the thermals possible at that range...yes. Very. It's well within a normal error. But of course it could just as easily adjust warmer. The bigger issue would be does the progression of the longwave pattern even look close to that by 162 hours?