psuhoffman

My gut tells me it is way too soon to be making detailed predictions for a storm 5 days away. I don't like to pretend I am confident or know something when the truth is I don't know. I am comfortable admitting when I don't know. But...this is a pretty good setup in terms of the longwave pattern. I would like that block to be centered a little south of where it is...like CAPE has said. But we have snowed with a similar H5 look often. I would like that 50/50 hanging around a few hours longer and the system coming from the west to go neutral just a little further east. I would like a slightly colder thermal profile in front of it but its December...is what it is. But there is a reason big all snow events are VERY rare in DC this early in the year. I do think this ends up pretty amplified when its all said and done...and that in a way reduces the chances of an all snow south track some. My "gut" says this is probably going to be DC's first accumulating snow of the season and break the snow drought...but the really big totals are going to be further north/west. Even up here...if you asked me what I am more worried about...a north trend and rain is a way bigger concern for me att then missing heavy snow to the south. Now watch 0z come in suppressed lol.

I would yes but the 18z op doesn't quite go out far enough to know where its headed for Wednesday yet...but we can see the effect of a less amped Monday wave...and I can speculate... 12z MSLP for the Monday wave 18z MSLP a few MB less and further south... More importantly h5 was less amped at 18z... 12z h5 Monday wave 18z h5 Monday wave The result to our 50/50 and confluence to our northeast is evident...look at the 50/50 12z Look at the change 18z...but there are some other factors that improved slightly that are unrelated to the Monday wave effects that could help mitigate...so I am not saying its impossible to get a cold solution Monday and Wednesday...but that the colder Monday is...the harder it will be to get Wed because it PROBABLY means higher heights to our northeast ahead of the next system. But the system is further south ejecting from the Rockies...and the flow is a little flatter on top of it. Those 2 factors could offset the less ideal 50/50 due to the less amplified Monday wave. I can't extrapolate from those minor details. But I would take the better 50/50 if I had the choice.

I’m talking about the eps. It trended slightly suppressed Monday at 18z and so warmer Wed. 12z I looked at every eps member to confirm. Of the 7 most north amplified members for Monday 6 had extremely south and snowy solutions for Wed. Of the 11 more suppressed they all had extremely north warm solutions Wed. The correlation makes sense. The more amplified Monday the more it will knock down heights in front of the wed wave.

It trended less amplified/south Monday and warmer Wed. There is an inverse correlation between the two waves.

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.

It has sucked but in fairness the other globals didn’t cover themselves in glory with those 2 storms from that range either.

Aww man I was getting a laugh out of every one of those posts. Why ya gotta ruin the fun.

Do you at least have a name on the script or do they just refer to you as "ensign#3"

@DTWXRISK JK nice map

I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship. I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday. Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90%

A more amplified Monday wave would suppress ridging along the east coast some. Maybe that helps get a cleaner transfer sooner. Or maybe more amplified runs are just more amplified across the board lol

I think he said he is working the mid shift this week. So he is probably sleeping.

I only analyzes one gefs run. On that one run 24 hours ago there did not seem to be any discernible correlation between the amplitude of the Monday wave and the Wed wave. But things can change. If they become less spaced the odds they impact each other increases. Also of Monday crosses a critical threshold and is amplified “enough” it would have to impact the next wave. Ill take a look at the 12z guidance to see if there is a more obvious correlation now.

It’s a noise level (at that range) adjustment either way from being all snow or a lot of tears in DC. That’s how we roll.

In fairness to nws CTP State College caught the NE fringe and got super high ratios. It wasn’t like forecasts were 100 miles off with that storm. But getting the edges right is always tough.

Ratios!

Hybrid imo. Definitely not Miller A but there is some stj play and the initial system coming from our west isn’t purely northern stream. Maybe I’ll add something on A/B/hybrid to the snow climo thread later since this keeps coming up.

Gefs looked much better than the op

Especially NW of 95...

How come all the other guidance they continue to release faster but the euro stays 1am. The gap is crazy now. At least years ago we had the ggem/gefs and various other “guidance of the hour” crap coming out between the Gfs and euro. Now everything else is done by 11:45 and it’s a crazy wait. ETA: I am not waiting up. If I happen to wake up fine otherwise it will look the same at 7am as it does at 1am

UKMET???

You really think you’re going to change his mind

We should have a cage match between @Ji and @DTWXRISK to settle this.

Gefs