psuhoffman

My scientific analysis of that sst chart

@Bubbler86 interesting points. But I know when most of us in the Mid forum post about anything day 7+ it’s meant as an analytical discussion of pattern possibilities not a forecast. I don’t think issuing a forecast for specific weather past day 7, even day 6-7 is a stretch honestly, is a good idea. I know some people take that probability and pattern recognition analysis and run with it as a forecast but whatever. Furthermore, the reason we do that is usually because there isn’t much going on in the day 1-6 range. Especially lately. You can always tell we’re having our typical crap years when the majority of posts are analyzing day 14 ensemble trends and MJO plots. I would much rather be analyzing vorticity, moisture convergence, and VVs to try to predict meso scale banding features that picking apart day 10-15 ensemble progs. Unfortunately there haven’t been a while lot of legit threats to make it into range to do that recently so reading the super long range tea leaves is all we have. Last year I said I thought winter was going to be a total dud in late December and made a long analytical post explaining why. But I said I would continue to track just in case either I was wrong or we lucked into a fluke somewhere. But a post on some possible glimmer of “hope” at day 10-15 should not be confused as a prediction for a snowstorm!

About once every decade JB does go warm/snowless and it’s usually when it’s so obvious he might as well use those years to save some modicum of dignity.

I think you should go investigate

I’ve mostly avoided the school discussion because I am biased and I truly believe everyone is coming at this with good intent and no one wishes harm on anyone so I really hope no one takes this the wrong way. I don’t begrudge anyone’s opinion on here and I don’t take anything anyone has said personally. And this is not in any way a response to anyone here. This is coming as a response to stuff going on in my district and some of the discussions I’ve had lately about that. But you all are my online family and so I feel the need to share what I’m feeling right now. I hope no one takes offense. That disclaimer aside...I am truly angered and feel disrespected by the dialogue my district and my own union are both taking. The district has been very clear their only concern is student health. And worse my union have taken up a false flag “kids could die” campaign because they also don’t think my life is a big enough deal to make the argument over. Which is insulting since they represent ME!!! I have asthma and Crohns and I’m not as young as I used to be. And I have 2 children I love more than anything else and I think about every minute of every day. I am not going to lie and make this about anything other then what it is...I am concerned about my health. And I am frustrated that the school district and at times my own union make it seem like I should be ashamed of that. Like my own life isn’t worth enough for that alone to be a valid enough argument. I am not and shouldn’t have to apologize for looking out for my own health and thinking about my family.

I saw something similar when researching something else last year but the correlation was very low. However, what it definitely indicated was a summer/early fall -NAO has absolutely no predictive value to a winter -NAO. I brought that up when DT used the prevalence of last simmer/fall -NAO in his winter prediction. I’m not sure a summer -NAO necessarily has high predictive value of a positive winter NAO though. Some correlation though but low from what I remember. Makes sense. The mechanisms that could cause higher polar heights when the pole is at its warmest and the atmosphere is thicker would differ from what might impact and weaken the TPV when at its strongest! It’s a totally different situation.

Yea except you don’t know our climo. In a nino winter our area and NYC can often have similar climo. It’s not that unusual for places in our region to best NYC snowfall in a nino. But in a Nina it’s a different world. Almost all the “good” Nina’s you refer to from time to time 2001,2009,2011,2013 (yes that was cold neutral but it followed 2 Nina’s and behaved like a cold Nina archetype) 2018 were utter garbage crap snowfall years here! 1996 was the only truly “good” snowfall Nina winter in the last 50 years here and 2000 was about avg across much of the area but memorable for an epic storm and 10 day period. The rest were pretty much garbage snowfall. We’re too far southwest to cash in on the northern stream miller b’s that are the main snow threats in a Nina. It took ridiculous blocking in 1996 (and March 2018 for a more contemporary example) to get our area into the action in a Nina.

When it’s January 15 and we’re analyzing the 800h Gefs for a possible March save...

Do we ever this time of year? But we can be fairly confident there won’t be a nino. And the sad fact is in the last 25 non nino years only 2 were above avg snowfall in DC. So simply using that we only have an 8% chance of a “snowy” winter. And if you remove the 2 extreme outlier non nino years (95/96 & 2013/14) the avg snowfall in the other 23 years is only 8.6”. So purely from a climo probabilities standpoint the odds say to expect about that. And there is currently nothing that would scream to throw those probabilities out. All that said pure probabilities aren’t a sound forecast because outliers are a very real thing. Maybe we get another 2014. But the odds aren’t good and att there is nothing that would hint that’s coming.

I’m not sure he realized my shot across his bow the other day was simply his own post to me from last December copied word for word.

I think DC has a very good chance to get 200 to maybe as much as 300% of last years snowfall this year! I know I’m a weenie optimist...

Cape was just having fun and laughing about something none of us has any control over. I’m honestly concerned about you. If snow (and everything related to it) affects you so much then you REALY need to move somewhere it actually snows regularly.

It’s really only a handful of people acting like clowns. The vast majority either don’t post at all or make quality contributions.

By Phin? Lol. Cape is typically guarded about snow chances. That’s called being knowledgeable of our climo! Oh how are the cfs mjo plots looking???

I can understand the lack of snow affecting your mood...(to an extent) but when other people's response to lack of snow starts affecting you so deeply it might be time to examine how you cope with things.

Sir you have zero idea where the pattern is headed. Nothing personal but it’s just a fact. You think you do but in reality no one does. Take it ten days at time. Why not relax and just take it one period at a time and not be so gloom and doom all the time??

Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong.

I’ve seen some postulation that an east based Nina is better than west. Makes sense. Whatever forcing there is we don’t want it Centered just off the pac coast pumping a downstream ridge over the eastern conus. But I don’t think the difference is as great as with a nino.

@CAPE Other than 1996 you have to go WAY back to get another Nina of any kind that ended up better than about normal snowfall in the DC/Balt corridor.

87 was a moderate possibly modoki Nino. There is some debate whether it was a central or basin wide or modoki and I’m not interested in that debate again but it was not a fully east based nino. In other words it was a typical setup for a big snow year in the mid Atlantic.

True...but due to several other related influences the pac base state has tended towards a Nina ish configuration even when we were in a neutral or warm enso state. So I am somewhat pessimistic about how an actual Nina, even a weak one, plays out in that background state! Hope I’m wrong.

I don’t have time for details but most Nina’s feature a suppressed weak STJ and thus dryer then normal here. Some can be colder/warmer depending on the axis of the pac ridge and EPO. So it’s usually warm/dry or cooler/dry. And it’s a 50/50 split about. The colder variants (2009/2011/2018) typically end up mediocre in snow. Between median to mean. The warmer variants typically are our absolute dreg total awful crap winters like 2008, 2012, 2017.

I think at this point factoring in warning trends simply makes sense. wrt to this upcoming winter...agree. There is way more in the “that ain’t good” side of the ledger right now for our snow prospects and needs. That said things can change. The QBO has been behaving erratically lately. Honestly the last 3 years are unprecedented in QBO behavior. Maybe try current rise is only temporary and by winter it tanks again. Or maybe we get lucky with a one week epic run like 2000. That winter was utter garbage in every way from a pattern and long range drivers POV but we got a 10 day period with a good pattern and hit the jackpot. Take the 2/3 storms that affected us in that week away end 2000 would have been a historically crap year. Instead we remember it fondly. Dumb luck is always possible. I don’t base my forecasts on it though!

JB is an awful example because he doesn’t even believe his own forecasts imo. He is just a click bait machine at this point. I’ll give you one example of proof. Several years ago JB was calling for cold (shocking) but at the same time his colleague JoeD was posting warnings that based on the QBO the analogs were actually warmer. Then later when his forecast busted JB used that same argument to explain why but acted like he simply missed it. Some live and learn crap excuse. Except he used that exact correlation (although the opposite one) years before in a forecast so he was lying. He knew full well the correlation and he simply ignored it. He knew his forecast was BS. Im not saying analog forecasting isn’t being impacted by climate change but using someone who does a piss poor job if it (intentionally imo) isn’t a good source of evidence. It’s ironic you use JB since you are the antithesis. Your points would be taken more seriously if you weren’t always anti cold/snow. I happen to agree with what your saying right now but how can people trust what you’re saying when frankly you would be saying that even if it looked good for cold/snow. You constantly beat the drum for warm no matter what and so people have tuned you out for the same but opposite reason we tune JB out!

A faster mid latitude jet would make it a lot harder to get the buckling and blocking we need. We are usually too far south for a zonal flow to work. Especially when that flow is dominated by pacific air blasting across. As cape said there will still be variance within the mean and times it relaxes but if the expanded Hadley cell causing a tighter mid latitude gradient and thus an enhanced jet is a permanent fixture it would have a negative effect on our prospects for cold/snow.