psuhoffman

I don’t have time for details but most Nina’s feature a suppressed weak STJ and thus dryer then normal here. Some can be colder/warmer depending on the axis of the pac ridge and EPO. So it’s usually warm/dry or cooler/dry. And it’s a 50/50 split about. The colder variants (2009/2011/2018) typically end up mediocre in snow. Between median to mean. The warmer variants typically are our absolute dreg total awful crap winters like 2008, 2012, 2017.

I think at this point factoring in warning trends simply makes sense. wrt to this upcoming winter...agree. There is way more in the “that ain’t good” side of the ledger right now for our snow prospects and needs. That said things can change. The QBO has been behaving erratically lately. Honestly the last 3 years are unprecedented in QBO behavior. Maybe try current rise is only temporary and by winter it tanks again. Or maybe we get lucky with a one week epic run like 2000. That winter was utter garbage in every way from a pattern and long range drivers POV but we got a 10 day period with a good pattern and hit the jackpot. Take the 2/3 storms that affected us in that week away end 2000 would have been a historically crap year. Instead we remember it fondly. Dumb luck is always possible. I don’t base my forecasts on it though!

JB is an awful example because he doesn’t even believe his own forecasts imo. He is just a click bait machine at this point. I’ll give you one example of proof. Several years ago JB was calling for cold (shocking) but at the same time his colleague JoeD was posting warnings that based on the QBO the analogs were actually warmer. Then later when his forecast busted JB used that same argument to explain why but acted like he simply missed it. Some live and learn crap excuse. Except he used that exact correlation (although the opposite one) years before in a forecast so he was lying. He knew full well the correlation and he simply ignored it. He knew his forecast was BS. Im not saying analog forecasting isn’t being impacted by climate change but using someone who does a piss poor job if it (intentionally imo) isn’t a good source of evidence. It’s ironic you use JB since you are the antithesis. Your points would be taken more seriously if you weren’t always anti cold/snow. I happen to agree with what your saying right now but how can people trust what you’re saying when frankly you would be saying that even if it looked good for cold/snow. You constantly beat the drum for warm no matter what and so people have tuned you out for the same but opposite reason we tune JB out!

A faster mid latitude jet would make it a lot harder to get the buckling and blocking we need. We are usually too far south for a zonal flow to work. Especially when that flow is dominated by pacific air blasting across. As cape said there will still be variance within the mean and times it relaxes but if the expanded Hadley cell causing a tighter mid latitude gradient and thus an enhanced jet is a permanent fixture it would have a negative effect on our prospects for cold/snow.

Since the panic room isn’t open yet I’ll post here. This from typhoon tip wrt the expanding Hadley cells. “I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument. The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll. But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies. This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies. The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows. We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. “ Translation: the pac firehose jet could continue for DECADES. Lol

@CAPE I wonder how much 1996 skews the Nina QBO correlations? Interestingly on the whole since then there hasn’t been much difference wrt cold/snow. A pretty even mix of mediocre and crap in both sets fwiw + QBO Nina’s 1997-2020 1998-99, 1999-00, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2016-17 -QBO Nina’s 1997-2020 2000-01, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2011-12, 2017-18

Speaking of the MJO one lesson we should remember in the future, when the mjo has a weak wave through phases out of phase with the base state it will have very little to no impact on sensible weather. A weak phase 8 during a La Niña Pac base state isn’t going to save us usually. Conversely a weak phase 4 during a cold winter won’t have the same disastrous impact as last years.

It’s about setting proper expectations. When I saw the pattern that was setting in around Xmas I set my expectations so low that even though it was the worse season I recorded out of 15 up here I felt lucky and enjoyed what little snow I got. Some of the other comps to that were almost complete skunks even up here! I knew it was going to be pretty awful so I wasn’t that upset when it was. People that put any stock into Merskys CFS MJO predictions on the other hand...

Portugal first.

His biases aside there isn’t much to be optimistic about ATT. But long range seasonal is low probability and things can change quick. But that’s not a reason to predict a cold snowy winter. I don’t see much to justify such a prediction right now.

Tell him I’m charging his chair rent in my garage!

You’re right we should stick to the CFS

Let’s see if they actually pull it off or if they end up with emergency closings and have to pull the plug within a few weeks! Trust me if some places open and nothing goes wrong I will admit it was the right choice and others should open, assuming they have similar local covid metrics. I’m just skeptical that’s all.

The prep drink is awful. I had a minor surgical procedure a couple months ago related to Crohns complications. That’s why I disappeared for a while. I know I’m biased. I am in an at risk group. That makes my impact calculus different than some others. But the percent of high risk workers in education makes it impossible to staff the buildings without risking those groups.

I’m an admin of the current virtual summer program. I’ve spent many hours connecting our ESOL translators with parents who don’t speak English. I’ve spend hours on tech issues and finding students devices and getting them free internet. I’ve given directions to our food distribution centers. Just because I don’t have a solution to every problem it’s ignorant of you to assume I don’t care! I’m well aware that distance learning is woefully inadequate. I said as much here recently. But I’m managing dozens of people and some of them (like me) have health issues. Diabetes, heart/lung disease, cancer survivors, a couple are over 65. I am not solving one problem by sacrificing some of them. So far we have had a couple students and a parent that I know of diagnosed with covid. Had they been in buildings...

Things have changed. The current trajectory of covid is not the same. Additionally districts have indicated they will be unable to fully meet necessary safety protocols. And lastly districts have failed to meet adequate accomodations for at risk teachers, basically telling them they can resign, go on unpaid leave, or go back to work. May own personal feelings have changed so it doesn’t shock me as a whole the message did as well. 2 months ago I was confident we could figure out how to return safely in September. And I was confident we would and I was looking forward to it. But after months of districts rejecting necessary measures due to cost and the resurgence of covid I am no longer as supportive. This isn’t complicated. MSDE issued guidance months ago about how openings needed to happen and the metrics to determine. And just like everything else due to cost and simple frustrating people were pushing to open without meeting the metrics or using the necessary precautions. That’s exactly how we got in this current mess in the first place!

Btw I don’t approve the “opening=dead kids” campaign by teachers unions. More kids will die from other diseases and accidents related to schools probably. The real threat is to staff and the community. I get that’s harder to work in a meme or sign but I don’t like dishonest tactics.

Everything you are saying makes sense. I don’t begrudge you your thoughts. I totally empathize. I don’t teach in Carroll. I teach in Baltimore City. But I am glad they are starting virtual. We explored the idea of virtual or in person options. Problem was too many teachers fall into the “vulnerable” category to run in person schools (especially with smaller classes) if they opted out. I have asthma and Crohns. Both conditions put me in higher risk. My wife and son have asthma. I’ll admit I’m nervous. Phin can make fun of me and call me names. I don’t care. I have a family and I worry about our health. If that makes me some soft snowflake wuss in his opinion so be it. And metrics do look fairly good in parts of MD now but keep in mind the metrics are delayed. They show us what was happening a week ago really. The fear is with schools open it could spread fast and before we react a teacher with a compromised immune system gets it and... All I can say is I want to teach. I could and have done a lot of things but I choose to teach because it’s what I want to do. And I want to get back to normal. I also want to live a long time and see my children grow up! That said I also empathize with parents that want their children back at school. I empathize with students that want to be back with their friends. This sucks. And I don’t have any definitive answers and I don’t pretend too. But I think we all need to be empathetic towards each other’s positions.

2017-18 was weak. Peaking at -1.0 on the tri monthlies. 2016-17 was actually borderline cold neutral as it peaked at -.7 in fall and dropped below Nina status by the DJF period! But there is a lag and enough of the other factors were crap that it didn’t matter. I am not saying the correlation isn’t accurate. Although now I’m curious and will look when I get the chance. Simply saying off the top of my head knowing the enso of some years he included in his “weak Nina” dataset is flawed I wouldn’t take that product very seriously. But in general we do want the qbo negative. So the idea is correct. I doubt that map accurately depicts the correlation though. Wait for the “it’s never going to snow again” crowd to notice the QBO suddenly has tended to want to stay in unfavorable phases lately! Just one more thing for them to pile on! Actually one thing positive to note from recent results. Despite a recent bias to spend a lot of tome in unfavorable phases of pattern drivers (qbo/NAO/AO/EPO/MJO) we have still managed to have a few snowy periods in the last 5 years. Is seems like we do hit more often when we do line up a good pattern. But getting a good pattern is less frequent. If we can ever get into a period of more favorable longwave pattern influences and keep the penchant for frequent big precip events...we could get an epic run! Hopeful I know but why not inject some positivity now.

Possibly but 2015 was a weak nino and 1982 wasn’t cold neutral it was just neutral. Spent DJF at 0 and JFM at +.1. How much is that chart skewed by those 2 years? And counting 1963 which never came close to nino status and fell in the middle of a cold -NAO period is dubious at best imo. I think he just made a mistake inputting some years. Oddly wrt QBO the last 2 cycles failed to ever attain a deeply negative phase. Perhaps that muted their impact.

Maybe there is a correlation but I would take that product with a whole cup of salt. First of all 1963, 1968, 1982 and 2015 weren’t la Nina’s. 2015 was a weak modoki Nino and the others were neutral.

I know a dropping qbo that’s transitioning to negative correlates to colder. Last year was pretty good wrt qbo but did us no good. We wasted it. Frankly other than the solar minimum I see nothing that looks favorable att. There is always dumb luck though.

I haven't done any data digging yet. I’m way too busy and it’s too early. But there are other factors that can portend a “colder” Nina. QBO phase and whether the Nina is west/east based factor in. NAO is huge but it’s not predictable. If you get a colder variety Nina we usually do “ok”. At least some snow which for us is “ok”. Once in a while you combine a colder Nina type with a rare -NAO and you get 1996. There was another early 1900s Nina that while not as good was an example of lucking into a colder archetype Nina and a -NAO. Or we can get lucky with just a -NAO period like 2000 and score big in that window. But if you get a warm archetype Nina like 2008/2012 and no NAO help...then you get last year again. In summary can do well but it’s not the favored outcome. Doesn’t mean we don’t get lucky. But I doubt anyone’s feeling lucky right now.

It’s what we know about probabilities in a Nina. A couple decent years. A whole lot of crap. A few years about as bad at last year even. Then there is 1996 teasing and giving hope to weenies. Ill try to re-create it if I get the time (I lost the data when my hard drive crashed years ago) but I did a weekly Nina case study (took forever) and found that If you actually get a -NAO during a Nina your odds of snow are just as good as a -NAO in any other pattern. Recent history supports that. We only had 2 brief -NAO periods in 2017 and 2018 but both produced a frozen event. We only got 2 weeks or a -NAO in 2000 and we went on an epic tear. There are some examples of wasted -NAO in a nino but no more than examples in other enso conditions. The problem was 2 things. A -NAO is much less frequent in a Nina. The typical tropical forcing association with a Nina favors conditions disruptive to blocking. And our chances of snow in non NAO blocking go way down, even more so than normal. I found warning level snowfalls almost non existent in +NAO regimes during a Nina. So this winter turning out well pretty much comes down to needing NAO help. What could go wrong?!

This is a very difficult decision. I’m torn. I really miss teaching live. I want to get back. Imo virtual instruction is woefully inadequate. Primary and even secondary education is just as much about the social aspect as the curriculum. Most job specific training comes as an adult. Yes kids needs basic reading and writing but mostly they need to learn how to analyze the world and participate in productive conversations that produce and expand knowledge. You can’t do that in an online class. Not very well. I also have an issue with how some teacher unions are marketing their policy advocacy. “Dead kids” is bunk. More kids are likely to die from accidents and other infections ancillary to attending school than covid. The real threat is to the staff and the community. And there are signs covid could cause less lethal but still serious side effects in some kids. But all that is harder to fit in a sign then “dead kids”. That said I’m also not sure how feasible an open is. The odds of avoiding mass closing seen low. Covid is still around. We just had a student in summer school diagnosed. Luckily it’s an online program but it highlights the issue. Every time a student gets diagnosed groups and schools will get closed. I’m curious to see a district announce their mitigation strategy in the event a student gets diagnosed then a simulation run by a legitimate reputable source on how that would play out. I’ve not seen that yet mostly because schools are being guarded with clear strategies. They don’t want to be boxed in. But it makes it impossible to run accurate impact calculus without those details.