psuhoffman

The best banding just shifted NW which isn’t unusual with these type waves, unfortunately even at the last minute. We’ve had several busts just like this. But my area up into PA did get 4-8” the dryer models didn’t have that. No model for this right. One of the rgem runs as it started to correct but before it over corrected was probably the closest.

It’s symbiotic because the banding sets up where the thermal boundary is

4.8” 24/23

26/25 4.2" snowing moderate right now between heavy bands

I moved up here, found a house on top of a mountain at about the highest elevation east of the blue ridge/catoctins and commute an hour to work so I feel like I earned it.

You have a band heading your way in 15 mins

28/27 2.75” new. Snowing about 1.5-2”/hr now

You’ve been stuck between the southern sliders and the storms where the NW area gets hit. I think it’s just been an incredible run of bad luck. There isn’t any reason I can see. Geography hadn’t changed. Over the long run it should even out. Eventually you’ll get some storms where you jack and dc only gets 3” and it evens out.

The band up here doesn’t shock me. It’s where everyone had the max snow. But as of yet I don’t see much where the h85 fgen banding was supposed to be along 95 or east of there depending on the run. That’s just MIA so far.

My bigger concern for 95 isn’t the temps it’s the angle of the precip and where the banding sets up.

It takes really heavy snow to fill in the radar in that area!

Here it comes

If temps don't start to drop soon that area could have to have their snowfall cut. Could be the second worst cut that area's experienced...

We're counting on you

We are also in much better shape WRT ratios this time. I can tell the lift is aligned with the DGZ better because even right now as I am in a lull between that initial band that shot out ahead along the boundary and the one coming in from the SW associated with the mid level forcing... its still big nice sized flakes. Last time we had those stupid needles that don't pile up at all.

Last time the H7fgen shot up into western PA then got crushed by the flow as it tried to continue NE. This time its sliding ESE with the front and will intersect the h85 forcing along northern MD and southern PA.

That is the banding associated with the h85 fgen that is about to slide across our area from SW to NE. When that arrives is when things should start to change around the DC metro from 95 NW. For the northern MD crew, unlike the last event when the H85 and H7 forcing was way out of alignment and created the huge screw zone for us...this time it looks like they are going to line up for a time this afternoon from about 1-4pm where we will be on the NW side of the H85 forcing as the H7fgen slides across northern MD and southern PA. That is out window to see some really heavy snow.

About an inch so far on top of the old snow.

It's still too early to know much... because there isn't consistent heavy enough precip over the DC metro area yet. The initial banding went to the NW, which was predicted by the guidance BTW. Once that banding developing to the west moves into the area if the boundary layer does not cool and its still raining or a "white rain" situation, then it is time to start to revise expectations significantly. But right now not much was supposed to be happening...the spotty precip around the area now wouldnt be doing anything anyways...we need consistent heavy precip to cool the lower levels. We haven't wasted any of the QPF that was supposed to be accumulating snow yet.

Anytime its a marginal event those maps are awful because they assume no snow can accumulate at 33 degrees and frankly it seems it doesn't account for much at all at 32 either. And it applies a very low ratio for snow at 30-31 when in reality ratios are more determined by mid level temps and lift aligning with the DGZ than surface temps. Add in the low resolution... In short those maps are just awful.

I already have more than that says I'll get for the whole storm...stop it with those ridiculous things

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