psuhoffman

Things have changed. The current trajectory of covid is not the same. Additionally districts have indicated they will be unable to fully meet necessary safety protocols. And lastly districts have failed to meet adequate accomodations for at risk teachers, basically telling them they can resign, go on unpaid leave, or go back to work. May own personal feelings have changed so it doesn’t shock me as a whole the message did as well. 2 months ago I was confident we could figure out how to return safely in September. And I was confident we would and I was looking forward to it. But after months of districts rejecting necessary measures due to cost and the resurgence of covid I am no longer as supportive. This isn’t complicated. MSDE issued guidance months ago about how openings needed to happen and the metrics to determine. And just like everything else due to cost and simple frustrating people were pushing to open without meeting the metrics or using the necessary precautions. That’s exactly how we got in this current mess in the first place!

Btw I don’t approve the “opening=dead kids” campaign by teachers unions. More kids will die from other diseases and accidents related to schools probably. The real threat is to staff and the community. I get that’s harder to work in a meme or sign but I don’t like dishonest tactics.

Everything you are saying makes sense. I don’t begrudge you your thoughts. I totally empathize. I don’t teach in Carroll. I teach in Baltimore City. But I am glad they are starting virtual. We explored the idea of virtual or in person options. Problem was too many teachers fall into the “vulnerable” category to run in person schools (especially with smaller classes) if they opted out. I have asthma and Crohns. Both conditions put me in higher risk. My wife and son have asthma. I’ll admit I’m nervous. Phin can make fun of me and call me names. I don’t care. I have a family and I worry about our health. If that makes me some soft snowflake wuss in his opinion so be it. And metrics do look fairly good in parts of MD now but keep in mind the metrics are delayed. They show us what was happening a week ago really. The fear is with schools open it could spread fast and before we react a teacher with a compromised immune system gets it and... All I can say is I want to teach. I could and have done a lot of things but I choose to teach because it’s what I want to do. And I want to get back to normal. I also want to live a long time and see my children grow up! That said I also empathize with parents that want their children back at school. I empathize with students that want to be back with their friends. This sucks. And I don’t have any definitive answers and I don’t pretend too. But I think we all need to be empathetic towards each other’s positions.

2017-18 was weak. Peaking at -1.0 on the tri monthlies. 2016-17 was actually borderline cold neutral as it peaked at -.7 in fall and dropped below Nina status by the DJF period! But there is a lag and enough of the other factors were crap that it didn’t matter. I am not saying the correlation isn’t accurate. Although now I’m curious and will look when I get the chance. Simply saying off the top of my head knowing the enso of some years he included in his “weak Nina” dataset is flawed I wouldn’t take that product very seriously. But in general we do want the qbo negative. So the idea is correct. I doubt that map accurately depicts the correlation though. Wait for the “it’s never going to snow again” crowd to notice the QBO suddenly has tended to want to stay in unfavorable phases lately! Just one more thing for them to pile on! Actually one thing positive to note from recent results. Despite a recent bias to spend a lot of tome in unfavorable phases of pattern drivers (qbo/NAO/AO/EPO/MJO) we have still managed to have a few snowy periods in the last 5 years. Is seems like we do hit more often when we do line up a good pattern. But getting a good pattern is less frequent. If we can ever get into a period of more favorable longwave pattern influences and keep the penchant for frequent big precip events...we could get an epic run! Hopeful I know but why not inject some positivity now.

Possibly but 2015 was a weak nino and 1982 wasn’t cold neutral it was just neutral. Spent DJF at 0 and JFM at +.1. How much is that chart skewed by those 2 years? And counting 1963 which never came close to nino status and fell in the middle of a cold -NAO period is dubious at best imo. I think he just made a mistake inputting some years. Oddly wrt QBO the last 2 cycles failed to ever attain a deeply negative phase. Perhaps that muted their impact.

Maybe there is a correlation but I would take that product with a whole cup of salt. First of all 1963, 1968, 1982 and 2015 weren’t la Nina’s. 2015 was a weak modoki Nino and the others were neutral.

I know a dropping qbo that’s transitioning to negative correlates to colder. Last year was pretty good wrt qbo but did us no good. We wasted it. Frankly other than the solar minimum I see nothing that looks favorable att. There is always dumb luck though.

I haven't done any data digging yet. I’m way too busy and it’s too early. But there are other factors that can portend a “colder” Nina. QBO phase and whether the Nina is west/east based factor in. NAO is huge but it’s not predictable. If you get a colder variety Nina we usually do “ok”. At least some snow which for us is “ok”. Once in a while you combine a colder Nina type with a rare -NAO and you get 1996. There was another early 1900s Nina that while not as good was an example of lucking into a colder archetype Nina and a -NAO. Or we can get lucky with just a -NAO period like 2000 and score big in that window. But if you get a warm archetype Nina like 2008/2012 and no NAO help...then you get last year again. In summary can do well but it’s not the favored outcome. Doesn’t mean we don’t get lucky. But I doubt anyone’s feeling lucky right now.

It’s what we know about probabilities in a Nina. A couple decent years. A whole lot of crap. A few years about as bad at last year even. Then there is 1996 teasing and giving hope to weenies. Ill try to re-create it if I get the time (I lost the data when my hard drive crashed years ago) but I did a weekly Nina case study (took forever) and found that If you actually get a -NAO during a Nina your odds of snow are just as good as a -NAO in any other pattern. Recent history supports that. We only had 2 brief -NAO periods in 2017 and 2018 but both produced a frozen event. We only got 2 weeks or a -NAO in 2000 and we went on an epic tear. There are some examples of wasted -NAO in a nino but no more than examples in other enso conditions. The problem was 2 things. A -NAO is much less frequent in a Nina. The typical tropical forcing association with a Nina favors conditions disruptive to blocking. And our chances of snow in non NAO blocking go way down, even more so than normal. I found warning level snowfalls almost non existent in +NAO regimes during a Nina. So this winter turning out well pretty much comes down to needing NAO help. What could go wrong?!

This is a very difficult decision. I’m torn. I really miss teaching live. I want to get back. Imo virtual instruction is woefully inadequate. Primary and even secondary education is just as much about the social aspect as the curriculum. Most job specific training comes as an adult. Yes kids needs basic reading and writing but mostly they need to learn how to analyze the world and participate in productive conversations that produce and expand knowledge. You can’t do that in an online class. Not very well. I also have an issue with how some teacher unions are marketing their policy advocacy. “Dead kids” is bunk. More kids are likely to die from accidents and other infections ancillary to attending school than covid. The real threat is to the staff and the community. And there are signs covid could cause less lethal but still serious side effects in some kids. But all that is harder to fit in a sign then “dead kids”. That said I’m also not sure how feasible an open is. The odds of avoiding mass closing seen low. Covid is still around. We just had a student in summer school diagnosed. Luckily it’s an online program but it highlights the issue. Every time a student gets diagnosed groups and schools will get closed. I’m curious to see a district announce their mitigation strategy in the event a student gets diagnosed then a simulation run by a legitimate reputable source on how that would play out. I’ve not seen that yet mostly because schools are being guarded with clear strategies. They don’t want to be boxed in. But it makes it impossible to run accurate impact calculus without those details.

Cape: there are decadal trends within those even broader periods. From 1904 to 1940 the NAO was predominantly positive. It was more negative from 1940-1972. It’s been in another predominant positive phase since. Then within those decadal trends there are small scale variations. We are due for both a decadal and or a shorter duration winter phase change. However predicting the flip is impossible. And I’ve even read speculation the slightly more negative period in the late 90s through 2011 was the phase flip only the NAO is trending more positive overall. I don’t know if I buy that yet. A few more years of this and I probably would. Maestro: wrt the shorter term NAO drought...it’s bad but not quite to unheard of territory. First of all we have had some negative NAO periods fairly recently. January 2016 was actually a really favorable NAO and we were unlucky to only cash in once. Of course it was a jackpot so can’t really complain imo. March 2017 and 2018 both featured blocking that brought us frozen events. The NAO wasn’t actually awful in 2019...both the pac and atl were just “ok” but we had expected great so it felt like a letdown. Last year was just a train wreck. But the positive NAO periods have been so anomalously positive such to hide any negative periods in a seasonal or even sometimes monthly mean The other problem is parts of our area (DC/Balt) have been kinda unlucky, making a not so good period seem even worse. 2017 and 2018 actually could have been much better. Not saying they should have been good winters. They were Nina’s (weak though). But some Nina’s (especially east based) can be decent. Those winters featured decent patterns and bad luck with storms missing every which way and dc being a meso scale snow minimum. 2019 was a decent winter but “felt” worse due to expectations. Here is the problem (and I tried to warn about this and got some angry kick back) the large scale weather patterns don’t care about our feeling and perceptions OR our local bad luck. The fact that we missed a lot of chances in an otherwise decent pattern 2017-2019 and felt unsatisfied didn’t change the probabilities. We actually were due for a total due. The kind of winter where the whole east coast suffers. They happen every 7 years or so and there hadn’t been one in a while. Just because we got unlucky locally recently didn’t change that. It’s like if you strike out with your two best hitters in baseball. That is unlucky but it doesn’t mean the next guy who sucks is now more likely to get a hit. It just means you blew your best chance and your probably screwed. Sometimes we get lucky and a not so good pattern over achieves. You could argue we got a lot of that in 2014-2015. We just paid the piper!

It’s hard to be very positive about the pacific. We’ve been in a very Nina ish hostile background state even when the SSTs weren’t that bad across the pacific basin. There has been good discussion and speculation about the SST patterns near the maritime continent and correlated mjo impacts being a cause. But it’s hard to imagine an actual Nina would improve that. The Atlantic side is always the wildcard though. At some point the NAO will go negative again in winter. Anyone holding their breath died a long time ago though.

Sorry I just saw this. Wasn’t on much. Crazy week at work then took some family time over the weekend. I would be glad to help any way I can if it’s not too late. Just PM me

He certainly wasn’t but we were about 8-10 feet apart so I’m probably ok.

Had to run to the store because wife forgot the pineapple for the kabobs. Guy in front of me has a “I stand for the flag:respect” shirt and his mask is over his chin. I said “glad you respect the flag now could you respect everyone in this store and put the mask over your face”. He responds “Stfu asshole” to which I replied...so you resoect the flag but not peoples health or freedom of speech”. He asks “what’s your problem asshole”. I finished “I’m just pointing out your own values here, if that upsets you maybe you should examine your actions”. Altercation ended with a “FU”.

I’m not sold on anything at this range. A weak Nina seems favored though. What that means...typically not great but there is always 1996 during a solar min to hold onto hope. And it certainly wouldn’t mean as bad as last year. But my post was just pointing out things could get a lot worse before they get better. Sobering since most of us are about done with all this.

I have and yes. I’m just worried things are going to suck for a lot longer than we want to accept.

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now.

JB cancelled next winter also. Might need to skip to 2022

Is 2020 over yet?

That is heart wrenching. And it drives me crazy that so many can’t empathize with that. Someday we will have to reckon with the sins of our past that perpetuates generation after generation if we ever wish to move towards a future without this unhealthy wound tearing at our society. But imo our failure extends even beyond bigotry (although that is our greatest challenge). For a Christian nation we don’t treat each other the way we should. We don’t take care of each other. We don’t show compassion and empathy for others. We don’t see the needs of others and think “how can we help”. We are tribalistic and egocentric and too many people are more worried about protecting their position than trying to make the world a better place.

I took my son there last week. There is a place near the northern end where Clipper Mill Rd crosses. A parking area with a trail to the water. There are also a couple places where Beckleysville Rd crosses the middle. We had more luck there. Overall we like Codorus near Hanover PA best. Sucks I’m 10 minutes away but have to pay out of State license fee because I’m 1 mile across the border but it’s the best/easiest accessible spot for the kids. I haven’t yet found a spot in MD close by the Kids like as much. There is a little community pond down the road on 30 we go sometimes if we just have an hour in the evening.

He is 5. He has a practicality to him. When our Disney trip in April got canceled he was disappointed but said “but I don’t want to get sick so ok”. Last year he saw a flood video on the news and said those people needs boats now and then we need to build them new houses but on top of something so that don’t happen again”. Recently he said he can’t really understand racism because he doesn’t understand why anyone would be mean to people because of how they look. He also constantly asks me difficult questions that are way over his weight. Sometimes I’m not sure how to answer. We aren’t totally sure how old Lily was, she was rescued. But around 11/12. Old but not that old. But she had a liver condition her whole life and it finally gave out. This morning my 2 year old almost made me cry when she crawled into Lily’s bed by the window like she often did to cuddle her and was saying lily and whimpering.

My son had a really bad day but he took it like a champ. His cat died, he got an ear infection and found out he can’t go in the pool for 2 weeks and then his favorite character in Star Wars rebels died. He said to me “you shouldn’t have let me watch that tonight”. Lol. He asked how to say goodbye in cat language at the vet then when we were burying Lilly said “I will miss you I hope we see you when we dead someday”. At bed time he simply said “today sucked can we never do that again” then asked me to stay with him until he is asleep because he is kinda sad. I was proud of how he handled everything. I don’t think I would have been as mature as he was. RIP Lilly

Still waiting for that low to move northeast out of WV through NC without jumping. #geography #salty