psuhoffman

I do not suffer ignorance. There are plenty of subjects I don't know anything about. But I don't just make up crazy BS and pass it off as legit. Or worse think that crazy nonsense should carry any weight or is somehow above reproach. ETA: I teach constitutional law so its hard not to get into that...my refute wasn't that the constitution is optional...its that the constitution is vague enough in most areas such that its never that simple. During two different periods in our history we locked people up for criticizing the President and courts did not think that violated the 1st Amendment. We totally ignored the 14th Amendment for almost 100 years. Somehow eminent domain didn't protect native tribes. Due Process didn't apply to Japanese Americans in WWII. The 2nd Amendment wasn't an individual right for 200 years and then the courts decided it was. The Constitution has been interpreted, re-interpreted, and manipulated so many times that using it as a concrete end all to any issue is kind of disingenuous IMO. But everyone is entitled to their opinion of how those rights SHOULD be interpreted. And we can have an amicable debate about that...unless you start spouting nonsense like saying the illuminati wrote the Bill of Rights as a way to fool American's into thinking we have freedom so they can subjugate us (not kidding had that come up recently). There is a limit to what I tolerate.

You never even defend what you say. You spout some crazy nonsense then when you’re called on it instead of offering evidence or logical arguments to support your stance you just whine and cry about how someone is picking on you. Weak

Another thing to watch wrt that feature...if it can really bomb out into the 50/50 area it would improve our chances with the Dec 12-15 period.

Fringed

2013/14 is interesting because if you ignore the central equatorial pacific (raging Nina right now) the rest of the global SST anomaly patterns are very similar. 2013 Now

Gfs had a better week than the euro. Euro has been trending towards a more Gfs like solution this weekend and Eps caved to the Eastern ridge day 9/10 that the gefs picked up on 36 hours ago.

It is day 2 so...

I don’t look at synoptic details past 100 hours but if that Baffin block day 7 on the euro is correct we should get opportunities

Don’t have a lot of time today but it’s a very good look pretty much the whole run.

As long as you mean Ant and not the accuweather HM

The guidance backed off some on the mjo wave today and so mid month looks a lot colder. Way too soon to draw any conclusions yet. Today was a good trend though.

Lol it got that one storm in 2006 and has been living off it ever since.

Yup...that aged well

For 5 minutes maybe. I mean you complained 2010 was a bust in the 5 weeks between epic snow blitzes then again in early March because it didn’t snow again after Feb 10. ETA: it’s ok. That’s you man. I’m not trying to pick on ya just saying...

I predict you won’t be satisfied either way

That was a statement that if this indeed is only transient (which is still unclear) it won’t do is much good. We may get a favorable period before it breaks down. But we are wasting a week of a pretty good H5 look first.

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down.

Build a 5000 ft house and hang out on your roof.

Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? It’s gonna move northeast from WV through NC.

Been doing family holiday stuff and catching up on work and didn’t post but the other day when I glanced at the actual eps members it appeared to me the breakdown was more due to a significant but minority camp of solutions that re-established the Nina pattern and went crazy with a +NAO and conus ridge. That camp was washing out the other members that still had a more favorable look. I rarely have time to dig that deep anymore but the mean cam sometimes be misleading. That said I’m guarded about mid December due to hints the mjo wants to amplify near the MC. That could return is to the Nina puke pattern. What I’m interested in seeing is if that is transient or locks in.

Unfortunately only Snowshoe is likely to be open before mid December. They are opening Dec 4 but don’t expect much terrain. They have to build base and it’s been too warm. 10-20” of powder won’t help too much if there is no base down on the trail under it. But if you just want to see some fresh snow and teach the tikes on the bunny hill that could be a good option. The other mid atl hills with less resources for snowmaking will likely take even longer to get up and running.

Just curious...we panic when it seems like we might get no snow at all. Do they panic at the first hints they might not get 100” this season? lol

It’s a long shot but the para Gfs 0z evolution is probably the only shot at snow here from later this week. Keeping the system split and having the lead wave pass then amplify and pull on some cold for the STJ system right behind it. The wrapped up bomb idea has no chance to work out since there is no cold in front and an amplifying phased system will end up near the thermal gradient.

Incredibly anomalous events usually are the result of equally anomalous larger scale pattern drivers that guidance can more easily identify at range.