psuhoffman

We know!!! But you could drop @Mersky a line.

@WinterWxLuvr I don’t think there has been some sudden flip and winters are all going to be crap now. That wasn’t my point at all. If I had to rank our issues bad shorter term patterns are primary and climate trends secondary. We will have a big winter again. We will have legit snowstorms. But if you go back and look at the snowfall records at most mid Atlantic locations outside the mountains it’s clear there is a warming trend and they are bleeding the wrong way. It’s not any sudden thing that you can say “that’s when it flipped”. But slowly 20”+ winters are becoming less frequent and <10” winters are becoming more frequent. And especially less than 5” total dud winters. They were extremely rare 100 years ago. Now they happen regularly. 4x in the last 9 years!!! Our median and avg snowfall is slowly decreasing at most recording stations. And Im sure urban heat island is some of that but not all. Places in higher elevations in our region have been hanging on because big qpf events have been increasing. Places just cold enough have been offsetting the bad periods with some crazy good ones and some sporadic big storms. But places outside those zones are slowly losing snow on the margins the last 100 years.

You’re missing my point. Will Baltimore get another 1-2” winter? Probably not. That takes a god awful pattern and bad luck! But if we get a similar pattern and end up with 6” from a few very minor events you really going to feel better? I have my doubts.

It is a good bet. But I think the chances of a close result is higher than people want to admit. Maybe 20% given the current pac, atl, and HL patterns. And the chances it’s better but not as much better as people want is like 50% imo. Right now it’s easy to comfort yourself with the thought “it has to be better”. But if that person gets 6” instead of the 1.5” last year....from say a 2” clipper and a couple 1-2” front end slop washed away by rain storms will they really feel good about it? I highly doubt it. But that kind of “better” is a high probability.

I agree but when DCs avg high is 45 even in mid winter it won’t matter if we are +5 instead of +8 for a particular day/week/month for our snowfall prospects. It might make a big difference up your way though! I am also not saying I think we end up with a repeat of last winter. I’m still not sure which Nina scenario we go towards but I do think I hedge towards the more hostile flat pac ridge option. But it’s not a sure thing. And even if we get the hostile base state we could get a 2000 type outcome where a 10 day anomaly with some luck within an overall seasonal crap pattern saved us. But...I do think a repeat of last year (wrt DC snowfall) is within the realistic realms here. Those convincing themselves this HAS to be better are setting themselves up for a world of hurt if it’s not.

We could still get a more poleward pac ridge this winter...but if we don’t I think some people are convincing themselves “well at least it won’t be as bad as last winter” when that’s exactly what it could be. Maybe DC lucks it’s way to a fluke inch or two of snow somewhere but if we get a Nina driven flat pac ridge and a +NAO is going to be very similar to last year. One trend within our snowfall climo that’s apparent (and makes sense given warning) is that while the frequency of big years and the snowfall in those years isn’t decreasing...our crap years are getting worse. When it’s bad it’s REALLY bad. We are spending longer periods in shut out the lights no hope patterns. What used to be crappy 9” snowfall seasons become crappy 1-2” snowfall seasons. Luckily when we do get cold periods we seem to hit more often now. I can find lots of cold periods without much snow historically. Recently when we get the cold we tend to get some snow. That could also be a product of warning and increased storms along the baroclinic boundaries. But that won’t save us when the entire conus is flooded with pac puke air all winter long.

Hey it’s obvious he spent 30 years as a pro met developing his use of that emoji! That and CFS MJO projections... RESPECT!!!

Thank you... We all have our roles to play

Sometimes it’s hard to accept we just can’t “know” something. But instead of focusing on the specifics we don’t know there is a lot we do. It’s very likely we’re heading towards a solid weak to moderate Nina. That also means it’s highly likely we get a suppressed STJ and an active northern stream dominant winter. Regardless of details that’s usually a dryer than normal look here. We will see a lot of those “precip hole” maps with emojis as the mountains eat up what little moisture those NS systems from the west have and they draw in Atlantic moisture too late to do us any good. We all know the drill. What we don’t yet know...is exactly the orientation and extent of the pacific ridge. If it’s flat we are very likely looking at a similar pattern to last winter. Even that doesn’t mean it AS BAD as last winter. There were some opportunities early that DC missed. And maybe there is one or two less hostile periods and DC lucks out. But it would be another very mild and likely much below normal snowfall winter. On the other hand if the pac ridge extends poleward more we will likely see more arctic air intrusions into the eastern US and while it’s still going to be a struggle without the STJ, we have a better shot of lucking into some snow and eeking close to a median winter. There is always the crazy long shot possibility that due to some factor we can’t foresee an anomaly happens. 1996 for example. Or more realistically 1999/2000! That was a god awful pattern the whole winter but we got a 10 day period with great blocking and cashed in big time. Flukes like that cannot be predicted but they can happen. That’s my take on where we are. I don’t want to stop anyone from speculating or trying to drill down on the details. I love the discussion. So don’t think I’m trying to squash it. But imo it’s risky when you drill down so much you’re using 3 seasons (And 1 of those skews the mean) to make generalizations about the expected pattern.

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite. The other 2 years were nothing like 1996! Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996? Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though. That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.

I need to get on the payroll. Tired of sending you business for free!

What your data showed was that of the last 5 Nina’s with a cold October none had above avg snowfall and only 2 had median. Here is the DCA snowfall in the last 5 “non cold” October Nina’s. 13.6, 4.9, 10.1, 3.4, 7.8 None above normal snow. 2/5 median. Same probabilities. Your data is fine but all it shows is how crappy a Nina is, not any correlation to October temps as a predictor of just how crappy.

Post better work

1. There are only 5 examples there of a Nina with a cold October. Too small to be reliable. 2. You aren’t adjusting the goalposts. We know in a Nina snowfall will very likely be below avg. we’re discussing will it be in the dumpster fire type Nina or the “better” but still below avg snowfall category. 2/5 years in that set were in the better category, 15.4 and 12.8” at DCA. If DCA breaks 10” in a Nina that is a huge win. If it breaks 12” it’s dance in the street time. 15” and clothes should come off!!! You listing how all cold October Nina’s were below avg is kinda duh since there has only been 1 above avg Nina at DCA total since 1950 so it’s too small a sample to draw any conclusions!

I don’t disagree just saying it’s not because of persistence. My point is many of the persistence crew isn’t really about persistence they are just about pessimism.

But 1996 would be an aberration in any enso. How rare is that outcome just in general? I think when you get that kind of blocking all bets are off on everything else. Look at 2018. We got that kind of blocking in March and April and had several legit threats! One legit hit and a few others that would have been if it was January not March plus one storm suppressed south of us even!!! If we could get that kind of Uber blocking Dec-Feb even in a Nina we would probably do good. 2010/11 spooks some people but it still took a pretty fluky weird course of events to miss that Boxing Day storm then we did get one good storm in January. But the blocking broke down and the rest of winter sucked. If the blocking had persisted another few weeks or had been centered mid winter vs so early when our climo is rough that year probably would have been better. Anytime we get that kind of blocking it can overcome other negative factors.

Where’s our “persistence” crew??? I’m not saying I buy that. I don’t. But...I find it funny that our resident persistence worshipers that like to tell us the crap pattern will continue because....persistence...are suddenly saying “but it won’t last” when the pattern is good.

I agree there is still hope this year ends up in the “better” Nina category. When I examined past Nina archetypes I found it very difficult to determine reliable predictive characteristics we could use ahead of time. The one would be extremely cold north Pac SST (Which almost always was a kiss of death) but we don’t have that. Unfortunately some still ended up crap anyways. But there is hope! However...notice most of even the “better” colder Nina Years were still more frustrating than not. 1996 aside the rest still ended up below avg in DC. But they did get closer to median and at least had chances in the area and legit threats to track and some places in our region did better in some of those years. So they are “better”. But it’s wise to set the bar pretty low in a Nina. Even a “good” Nina is simply getting anywhere close to avg. A median snowfall winter is a huge win in any Nina imo. If we get super lucky and 1996 decides to repeat itself great. But I’ll save my sanity not counting on that.

October snow is way too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions Thats like if some minor league player got called up for one game and hit 1/3 thinking they will bat .333 for their career!

Agree with all this. But what I found (and most know) is in a Nina it’s even harder to luck our way to a significant snow without any HL blocking. A lot of that is due to a less potent stj. Without blocking in any regime our best shot is to luck into a juiced up but progressive wave. Those are really unlikely without any stj help. But that is especially pertinent to DC. They are too far west to benefit from waves that develop late as they infuse Atlantic moisture. DC needs the gulf as it’s main moisture source. Only exception is a slow moving amplified bomb. But we need blocking for that so again catch 22! So it’s REALLY difficult for DC to get a significant snow in a +NAO Nina regime. Even more so than in other enso states.

There is a quote from prince’s bride that works here

I just figure when most people outside our region want a quick snapshot they are focused on the urban corridor from DC-Baltimore. You and I are not really in the mainstream here. 2000 wasn’t that good up here (but I would take it) since it’s a lot harder to fluke to avg with a couple storms up here. But the “we” was for the main cohort in this forum. You can get clipped by late developing miller bs and coastal scrapers much easier and in a Nina that advantaged your area over DC sometimes.

We did pretty well in 2000 by our standards but all the snow fell in 2 weeks when there was blocking. The rest of the winter sucked. We can always root for a fluke like that. Actually, A few years ago heading into the 2017 nino I went back and examined the h5 look leading up to every Nina warning even at BWI going back to 1950. Every single one had some kind of high latitude help. In some cases it was bootleg and didn’t show up well on the numerical NAO. Like blocking near Hudson Bay which is actually one of our better ways to back into a snow event in a flawed longwave pattern here. But I couldn’t find a single significant Nina snow without at least a decent look up top to aid. If the NAO looks like hot garbage in a Nina we can try to luck into some kind of scraps like a front end inch or two or a clipper but we’re not getting anything of substance.

Yea so are the Cleveland Browns but no one is praising them for it