psuhoffman

I'll say a prayer for you

so you like to compare a day 5 smoothed ensemble mean to an actual h5 verification?

paging @stormtracker

Yes a negative NAO October is inversely correlated with a -NAO winter. You know what else is inversely correlated with a -NAO winter? EVERYTHING!!! There have only been 3 negative NAO winters in the last 30 years. Anything you run a correlation against a -NAO winter will come back as an inverse relationship simply because the odds of a -NAO winter are so extremely low regardless of whatever else is happening. This is another example of correlation not being the same as causality! But lets look at the data to see if there IS anything meaningful to this October/Winter correlation debate. So first of all there are 2 different ways to calculate winter NAO. Some use D/J/F and some use J/F/M (because that is when the NAO has the most impact on the sensible winter weather). But regardless of which you use there are 3 years...just 2 of those 3 is different in each set. But since we have so few truly negative NAO years lets use all 4. 1996 and 2010 are truly negative years regardless of the way you calculate. 2011 and 2013 flip flop depending on how. 2011 is a neg year if you use D/J/F and 2013 is if you use J/F/M. 3 of the 4 negative NAO winters in the last 30 years came following a negative NAO October. The other came following a neutral NAO October (1996). For what its worth 1996 turned severely negative later in October but numerically it was washed out by positives earlier. So purely statistically -NAO Octobers had a 21% chance of leading to a -NAO winter. All other Octobers had a 6% chance of leading to a -NAO winter! But those numbers are from way too small a sample size to have true statistical significance. And besides...the problem with using the seasonal NAO, besides the fact the base state of the NAO is so positive that you get too rare an occurrence to glean any meaningful correlations, is that we don't need the NAO to be negative for 3 months (or even 1 month) to get snow. We just need some periods of blocking. And sometimes that blocking is bootleg and doesn't even show up in the numerical NAO. And a period of positive can negate a period of negative. Who cares if it snowed right! So...lets look at what we all really care about...snowfall. Averaging the 3 major recording stations in our region (DCA/IAD/BWI) together gives us an average snowfall of 18.1" over the last 30 years. The avg snowfall in the 14 winters following a -NAO October is 21.0" The avg snowfall in the other 16 winters is 15.6" So...we have averaged 5.4" more snowfall following a -NAO October in the last 30 years.

We live in a simulation so

Kinda like your predictions lately

Unfortunately a -NAO in December without PNA or AO help is unlikely to save us. We typically need multiple things to line up to get much snow before Xmas.

Well I haven’t been doing much swimming in the equatorial pacific lately to gather any evidence to refute them.

I agree about 2016. Given the pattern from early January to mid February and then another decent pattern period in March I think it was more bad luck we didn’t get more hits than it was good luck we got one.

See bold part. I’ve been very clear I think this year will very likely be below avg. But how much below I have no gut feeling on. And all it ever takes is for us to get lucky a couple times and suddenly we have a decent snow season even in a crap pattern year. But the chances we get a really awful year similar to last is not 0. And if we get a really strong flat central pac ridge +NAO pattern like all guidance suggests that’s a big problem. Everything in that post I made last December (that Mersky picked a fight over) basically saying we were in big trouble, would apply again. Just because we suffered last year won’t make that pattern any less hostile for snow. I guess my main point is the odds we get an equally awful season to last are a lot higher than some wave to admit. I don’t think that’s Likely how this plays out. But I’m wary that it could.

Probably. But there is a chance this is an epic fail if the result of an actual Nina during a period when we were already experiencing a Nina type pattern due to other factors leads to an Uber ultra Nina pattern. We could get a stable +3-5 std dv pac ridge that floods the conus with Pac puke all winter. It’s not necessarily the most likely outcome but it wouldn’t shock me. On a personal note (and yes I realize this makes me an ass) if we have the choice between some pathetic 6” from several slop storms winter or a complete blank were its 55-65 all winter and we don’t even get a flake I would take the latter just to be able to chuckle at all the “it can’t be worse than last year” posts. Those people obviously aren’t paying attention. It can always be worse. Always.

Having fun

Perfect 50/50 but a lobe rotated around at the exact wrong time and squashed the flow.

True but we did still waste what was a pretty good 3 week period from late November to mid December. We had a few cold rain events that would have been snow in January. Then when we did get a shot of true arctic air into the pattern we missed the one true threat. End result was nothing to show for a pattern that likely would have produced some snow in mid winter! But I’m not saying we can’t snow significantly in December. It sometimes happens. But if we look at the history of the “cold December Nina’s” most were more frustrating than celebratory with mostly minor snows that would leave us feeling unfulfilled when the winter torch comes. I’m purely going by the probabilities based on past results.

Problem is we need so much to go right to cash in much before Xmas. A “decent” pattern is likely to be wasted wrt snowfall. If we only get one mediocre look December is the worst month to get it.

Just shoot me now

Might not even be that much of that, if the euro is right. I don’t think winter is over for us. The climate didn’t suddenly flip a switch since January 2019. We had such high expectations that it’s often overlooked but that was a very “wintery” month. But what seems true to me is while we still get some good periods interspersed with more not do good periods, the not so good are becoming really bad. With warming any less than ideal pattern ends up way too warm. Any forcing that fosters a ridge and we ridge out to Quebec. When it’s not cold it’s REALLY warm! I definitely think we will see another above avg snowfall winter soon (maybe not in time to save a certain someone’s sanity though) and with the increased baroclinicity and moisture we could get a blockbuster winter if we can line enough things up right. But I think really awful years where we get virtually no snow are becoming more common.

At least it would be nice a lot. We probably have very few days with a high below 50 if that’s correct. And likely quite a few 60+ days. And at least we wouldn’t waste time on false hope. Snow would be 500+ miles away not teasing us. We could just accept it won’t snow at all and enjoy an extended October all winter.

Euro is a carbon copy of last winter. Maybe even worse. Ridiculous central pac ridge, AK vortex, raging +NAO.

1-2-1 first place!!! Lol

This is similar to the nino debate a few years ago. Some define enso type by its origin and evolution while some by simply a snapshot of sst anomalies at any given point. Based on what I’ve seen and the fact there is often a lag on sensible impacts to the global pattern I tend to be in the first camp. But that’s my opinion. What annoys me is when the competing classifications create confusion and stupid heated arguments because of it.

The covid thing is not both sides. And I think we would probably agree that overall one side is way more guilty of this in general. But I have seen liberals do the same general thing, taking a contrarian stance on something just to oppose conservatives when they otherwise wouldn’t give a bleep.

Nothing happening has surprised me at all. This is just highlighting the issues that we have had for a while now. One huge problem we face is because of our culture war going on and the teams mentality from that we have made things that shouldn’t and cannot be political such. That’s really unhealthy and it’s happening on both sides. One thing that could shake up the current status quo on covid attitudes though is that rural transmission rates are increasing. Until now most conservative regions really have been less effected and that feeds into the political differences in covid attitudes. But it’s predicted this second wave will not spare rural areas like the first one did. Will attitudes change when both sides are seeing the impacts first hand? I have my doubts but maybe.

If the scientific model projections are correct we’re about to have way bigger problems than “can the nfl season finish”. But yea trying to complete a full season traveling all over the country playing a contact sport during a time of year when viral transmission increases with no bubble was wildly optimistic at best. But what we don’t know is was a bubble even possible. You have to convince all these players to leave their families for 6 months when many of them are at the age they are getting married and starting families. I would never leave my children for 6 months. There isn’t a check you could write me that would even make me consider it. The bubble sports were only trying a tournament and most players were looking at a month or two at most. And I’m sure that was tough. So if the only options were “let’s try this wing and a prayer or just not play at all” maybe it wasn’t such a bad decision.

Everything objective looks awful. But I’ve pointed out sometimes an anomaly that we can’t readily explain happens. But that’s the most optimistic thing I can find. And it’s hard to have a lot of conversation around “maybe we just get lucky”.