psuhoffman

So your going to not pay what funds the thing you want open. Sound logic

Oppositional defiance isn’t always a good thing. Setting aside whether it actually is BS, even if it were so what? Lots of necessary things in life invariably will be something some individuals think is BS. Rules. Regulations. Standards. Hoops we have to jump through. Having the attitude you express here will set anyone up for a difficult frustrating life if they think they can just blow off any obligation they don’t personally think is important. It’s not good for their growth as individuals and its not good for the future of our society.

Winter forecast. I used analogs and pattern recognition. Factors include ENSO, QBO, PDO, AMO, AAM, Atl SST, soil moisture, and trends. December I expect the predominant pattern to take on a configuration that resembles... January as the PV reaches its Max and the jet stream settles into its dominant winter configuration I could see things evolve to Finally in February as the same old regulars (we all know who) tell us everyday how awful it is as if we don’t know I think the pattern might transition to For anyone who makes it to March expect

You don’t need permission.

More often when we go into a healthy Nina it lasts multiple years. 1998/99-2000/01, 2007/8-2008/9, 2010/11-2011/12, 2016/17-2018/19.

Good old American “f@!& it let’s just give up” attitude.

This has been my experience. I do think the issue is too many don’t have the maturity and responsibility to do what is necessary without a teacher there physically to lean into them so to speak. That’s as much a societal failure as their individual one.

I dunno about the luck but we do dumb pretty good

This winter looks as promising as the Cowboys season

2014-15?

How did 2013-14 look in the fall of 2013? Was there any hints a big winter was in store. Between 2009 and 2016...we did really well snow wise I didn’t think it was going to be that good but there were some signs it wasn’t headed toward a dumpster fire in the fall that year.

I am not throwing in the towel yet...maybe the pac is throwing false signals (unlikely) or maybe we get some blocking (past results don’t always predict future outcomes).

That Pac though... ugh. I think the hints are piling up that this year will be in the really bad pac setup Nina category. If so our only hope to get any snow will be a period of blocking. Doesn’t have to be a predominant winter feature. 2000 was a positive NAO winter but we had 2 weeks of blocking and cashed in! A few years in the similar set Im looking at we got some blocking late and a little snow in March to avoid a total shutout. But in the moderate/strong Nina with a flat pac ridge analog set I see absolutely no snow without blocking. Not a single fluke storm. So I know this isn’t where we want to be...but if we don’t get any blocking we’re in BIG trouble imo.

Fixed

There are ways to find legit objective news. Problem is it won’t be on 24 hour networks. That’s because they have to fill time and they do it by punditry where they talk about the news. That’s not the news. That’s talking heads telling you how to feel about the news. The actual news they report isn’t really that biased. The pure Fox News and CNN news desk stuff isn’t that far apart. But then they fill the other 80% of their time with biased commentary tailored to their audience to tell you how you should feel about that news. Wonder what would happen if a network filled that time with feel good stories and lesser known real news vs noise.

Where’s the blue???

And which of those is favorable right now?

First winter call

The GEFS look could work later in winter. November and December we tend to need some Pac cooperation.

I’m not sure how much the former factor will help. There is often a lag effect between enso and pattern and even a weak to moderate Nina isn’t exactly great snow climo in our area. But I am very much in agreement on the latter. The pacific SST is really in contradiction between the enso regions and PDO regions. There aren’t very many good analogs to this configuration at all. I’m still being pessimistic but that’s probably just me not wanting to set myself up for a disappointment. I could see a scenario where this year does not behave like a typical Nina.

I think you should say this in a slightly different way a few times everyday.

I was thinking 65 which was a weak Nina. Why do you cite 67? That was an enso neutral winter during an extremely -NAO regime. Add in warming since and I doubt it’s a good comp to now. Hope I’m wrong.

Thanks for the info...love your work. But keep in mind all 4 of those years you cite were pretty sucky for snow here. 67 was ok but not really compared to the period it was in. The other 3 were all below normal and frustrating as we missed almost every storm just to our northeast. Nina’s are a lot less hostile in NYC than our area.

I see the similarities. And while 2000 was one of the best snowfall Nina’s in our area I also think expecting a repeat of that 2 week stretch in January is risky. We torched with no chance at snow the entire rest of that winter. What if that short period of blocking didn’t happen. Or what if we simply didn’t get lucky and nothing came of it. I tend to think of the outcome that season as more lucky than good. A repeat could end up a disaster. Please convince me otherwise though. I could use some optimism.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2020/10/23/influential-soccer-podcaster-daryl-grove-passes-away-after-cancer-battle RIP Daryl Grove. I don’t know if anyone else here is a member of the soccer community. Daryl hosted imo the best soccer show (Total Soccer Show) for the last 11 years. He was a constant advocate and friend of anyone involved in the sport. He was a great ambassador for the game. More then that he was a wonderful person. Always positive. Always friendly. Willing to help whenever possible. Once he got a bad review by someone saying the show was “soft” and he joked that it was a compliment because the world needs more softness. Even though I didn’t know him well personally I heard his voice almost everyday for 11 years and he made everyone feel like family. He responded to every message. He was welcoming at fundraising events. It really hurts. I’m sure others who met him at events and listened feel the same way but a piece of my life is gone. I wish I knew what to say but I don’t. I just wish I didn’t have to say anything at all. The world is just a little less today with him not in it.