psuhoffman

@mitchnick @Ji I figured it out ECMWF and TT are using 1980-2010 climo WxBell is using a 20 year running mean of the last 20 years! So if you want to know how much warming is hurting is just compare the two lol. What was 2-3 degrees above average 30 years ago is now 1-2 degrees below avg lol

On Wxbell they’re labeled as “weeklies” but who knows. I compared the two and they’re just different.

Very different from what’s on Wxbell Here is the same time period

The last run of the weeklies didn’t have any weeks above average temps though and got cold again for March.

@mitchnick I’d be careful using the weeklies because the looks keep adjusting once they make it inside day 15. It does look like the AO is becoming more hostile but the pacific changes keep getting muted.

Guidance is adjusting colder for early Feb. shocking

There is a lot of that but sometimes it’s hard to differentiate who is being malicious and who is just stupid.

Its a lost cause. It’s like the “do your own research” people. They find some rando online saying some BS and think “I found something every scientist and expert missed and now I know more about this than everyone who do this as a profession”. Good luck arguing with that level of monumental stupidity.

AI is a close miss to the south on a MECS level event around Jan 30. Two minor snows as is.

I’ve seen this before. I don’t mind this look. Because A means B will end up further northeast and C will be further southeast.

I consider this an enso neitral winter. I know it’s officially a really weak Nina. But the atmosphere never coupled and it’s behaving like a neitral.

Adding to my above thoughts, we had general god awful enso neutral winters during the recent hostile PDO regime. If this is an indication of what a enso neutral winter will be like in a more friendly PDO regime that’s very good news. One of our biggest causes for the decrease in our snowfall has been that enso neutral winters went from being pretty decent to good often to being mostly god awful recently. Nina’s are pretty bad. And we know east based super ninos aren’t good. And weak ninos are a crap shoot. So it’s tough sledding if we can only score in a very specific rare type of one enso state (moderate to low end strong modoki Nino). If we get neutral winters back as a viable “real winter” it improves our climo a lot.

I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge. The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory.

Ya it would be great, until they all freak out over 3” and the town closes like it’s Armageddon.

We need a STRONG stj wave to get an HECS. That’s the difference in many events between a 6-12” event and those 20”+ snowstorms. We rarely get those juiced up southern stream bowling bowls throwing some 2”+ precipitatable water moisture feed at us in non Nino years. Further north they can get a hecs without that if the northern streak phases and bombs a storm and it develops a mature CCB with a crazy deform. But we’re too far south for that. We can sometimes get the southern edge of that and in many of our HECS storms we do get an additional 6-12” from that to put us over the top but we had 12+ already just from the STJ overrunning precip. We are too far sorry typically to get 20” from a NS phasing coastal bomb unless it has a strong STJ component initially.

He’s using the wrong side of the ruler

Some shots from my morning jebwalk. I got incredibly lucky. I had to go 5 miles SE this morning and the snow was maybe half. It drops off real fast.

We’ve had one non Nino HECS in the last 40 years and 2 in the last 75 years! We’ve had 7 in a Nino even though those years only make up like 30% of the winters! I think it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect an HECS in any non Nino year. We’re missing one of the two key ingredients needed to get those level events, a strong STJ. The other being a really strong well placed 50/50 to keep the cold in place as the STJ moisture attacks, typically from blocking but we’ve had a couple where there was a 50/50 without blocking.

I still think our best chance will come in the Jan 26-31 window as the TPV is retreating and the boundary is near us as the cold relaxes. There will be plenty of cold left around though so long as whatever wave is not over amplified to our west. Obviously once we get within range the synoptic details will determine where the win is but I foresee a couple waves within that time period that should target somewhere close to our latitude. For Feb EPS continues to show the trough in the west central pacific under the wpo ridge. This causes ridging to extend into the SW US which prevents troughs from digging and cutting off there like has been the tendency lately. This means systems will continue to be directed further east. That’s good. Unfortunately the AO looks to go positive which could make it more difficult to be on the winning side of the boundary. It’s definitely not a sustained cold look like we’ve been in but I think we would have opportunities in that look given it’s February. Our best chance to snow in that look is to have a front clear and get a boundary wave on its heals. Kind of like yesterday only hope it’s 50 miles further south next time.

6.5” total down to 19 now

It started shifting the max qpf north some but not nearly enough but every model missed it.

There are reports of 8-9” in some isolates spots in south central PA. The 4-8” area ended up starting in extreme NW VA through northern MD border counties north into south central PA. Then the gradient south of that was severe. Those rgem runs we made fun of ended up pretty close actually unfortunately. These kinds of game time NW shifts with these boundary waves make up a large % of our areas busts. This isn’t that rare unfortunately. I always fear a north shift with these type storms.

It got the structure of the storm it just shifted 30-50 miles north at game time and every model missed that even the rgem which was right then went south with everything else lol. So I dunno how to grade that. I might be low because I’m measuring 6” but some of the early stuff might have compacted and it’s windy up on this ridge so that makes it hard.

I got 6” here a couple miles south of the PA line between Hanover and Manchester.

21/19 6” exactly. Still snowing lightly. Might be one more band to go. Im sorry this didn’t work out further south. I am grateful for events like this when my elevation and latitude help. Makes the commute worth it. And it is legit nice up here in summer when it’s the 80s with a breeze when it’s 94 in Baltimore lol.