psuhoffman

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!! We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it! So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing.

Just for fun...the #1 day 11 CPC analog is mid January 1966, the #2 is late January 1979. Both dates immediately proceeded 2 of our best snow blitzes (until 2010 of course) in history. Of course some of the other dates in the analog set are not as friendly...but almost all produced at least SOME snow. But the top 2 certainly shows there is big upside potential to this look.

I didn't say its not possible...but one of the reasons it resulted in that was that the NAO block retrograded so far SW that it blocked the western trough from "sliding under" and progressing east...so it dug in and pumped the heights even more...add in that the high latitude ridge was so far south...in southern Canada...and a link up was natural. Yes that could happen...and would happen if the block really does retrograde to south of Hudson Bay...but I find that a little extreme. It's more likely the block doesn't retrograde that far SW, that is extremely rare.

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us. Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.

@Ji the December setup wasn’t bad. Rex block north of AK. Ridging extending into Greenland. 50/50. Nice trough in the MS valley. We’ve snowed in much worse.

Yea but that storm happened before the pattern got amazing and it was waAY before peak climo That was a pretty good pattern mid December that week.

That was a rare historic storm. Not here but it out down 40” in places and a huge area of 10”+. Your bar is ridiculous

@stormtracker para remarkably similar to op gfs but adjusted south...

I’ll take crazy too much blocking solutions at that range. Doubtful it verifies. You back the blocking off some to allow the trough out west to progress east and that was a big solution

That wave on the CMC on the 22nd isn’t the one the GFS amplifies. It gets squashed. The cmc then suppressed the wave on the 24 that the GFS gives places north of DC snow. The wave on the 22 has no real chance if the trough splits our west. The airmass isn’t cold enough yet.

Read my last post to Ji. Block stops the whole trough from progressing. The system cuts west of it, occludes and dies.

The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking This run the block actually retrogrades so far SW (into central Canada) that it blocks the trough in the west from progressing east at all. So it ends up a crazy solution. A little less extreme and that system comes east under the block instead of cutting up west of it then occluding.

That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out...

Here comes the energy for the “big” threat. It’s slower this run. But fits the progression

@Ji 2 ways to look at this... 1. Models are all over which does decrease confidence in a specific solution. Not that there should be any at this range. 2. The gfs and euro take radically different progressions and both end up snowing on you. That is indicative of the potential this blocking regime creates.

Didn't that use to be the euro bias,? Yes

You must have taught it everything you know!

It’s soooo close. Not too far north of DC stays all snow. Big jump the right direction. Man get that NS POS out of the way and this was a DC snowstorm. But it’s at a range where this was good enough.

Block is exerting a lot more pressure this run. Might be a better solution despite split but it’s gonna be close. Cold press coming but that NS feature wrecked the airmass in front first. Will have to get in just in time if it works.

That split is a problem. The energy in the SW gets stuck and waits and the front runner that comes across Canada wrecks the flow in front.

Euro Gfs

Gfs already doing what it was doing last few runs different from the euro...splitting the western trough.

Really nice vort pass on the 19th but no surface reflection. If we’re looking for some dark horse long shot to pop up short range that could be the one. Wouldn’t take much surface reflection to at least create a minor event out of that.

One of the contributing factors to the fail of the last pulse of the high latitude blocking was the orientation and progression. The wave break in the Atlantic was mediocre, the NAO ridge was actually enhanced by a mid latitude ridge originating from the pac that transported poleward and linked with the NAO ridge. The result was an elongated inverted omega block extending NE to SW and instead of retrograding it faded northeast. That is not really the greatest configuration or progression for is to score. There were other contributors like lack of cold and fast pac jet but the block itself wasn’t ideal. This next iteration looks like a much more “classic” progression.

I am not saying the wave around the 22-23 couldn’t work. It’s has a decent shot. Just saying imo the progression gets even more favorable just after that.