psuhoffman

Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol

Every time the Eagles have won the super bowl its been on a weekend! Crazy right

don't start that shit again

You're just "done" and I totally get it.

The extreme to which the TPV got displaced this week actually lead to a pinwheel of the whole pattern and a temporary break for a few days before everything cycles around again. I did not, nor could anyone really, have seen that coming. But the warm few days is just a temporary thing in the larger cold period as things reshuffle.

Don’t we want it too amplified at that range?

It never left. I was focused on the threat in front of us and didn’t want to engage with the “the sky is falling” takes because we got a temporary relax for a few days. I get it. It’s toward the end of winter so every day lost is magnified.

I know but no one’s in the mood. They’ll be back though as soon as some run inside 100 hours shows 6”

as you wish

God damnit

one more knife

Ok now it’s trolling me

I’d be super excited if I was in SC

Looks great to me @mitchnick lol this winter isn’t letting us go without more pain.

From a probabilistic pov this is 100. It’s true of every snow scenario. The number of permutations that produce snow are way less than the ones that don’t. Basically we need a storm to track trough a 100 sq mile box to get snow. The no snow permutations are the whole rest of the planet lol

Now that’s one for my book if it’s rain

I'm not sure that is all that unusual. If you look at our snoweist periods historically they don't typically have a PV hanging around close to us, which is also why our snowiest periods arent crazy cold either. Problem is the only time weve been cold enough to snow lately is with a PV close...I really don't want to get into this right now.

Can't disagree... just want to throw out that in seasons that had a definitive "trend" (not all do) March was the most likely month to get an anomaly that broke the snowfall norms of that season.

probably yes... but I brought up 2018 because that was a similar season, nina, most of the snow had hit to our NW or SE that year...a good Delmarva snow in January. Then we got that March snowstorm. You're right its not likely, but it does happen. That's all I got.

we know, we're just shooting the shit really with the model runs as an excuse

By March 15 the MJO will be getting into hostile territory again if the seasonal trends continue so this makes sense. I think our best window is only the first half of March. Which is fine because it takes a crazy anomaly to get snow after that anyways.

you are "probably" right... but ya never know. By April things will warm up no matter the pattern, a sunny day will feel good. What's another couple weeks of "chilly" to get one or two more rolls of the dice. Once in a while things do turn around. Remember how we felt getting into mid Feb 2015 when every freaking storm was hitting New England and we had almost no snow...then we got on a heater through mid March. March 2018 MD west of the bay had done awful all winter long...then we got that March 20 storm which was 4-8" for most of the area. And I dont know if you were up here yet...but you got about 15" where you live now from that one! It can happen. Probably not, but its not 0 and hope is all we got man.

I didn't really want to focus on the larger picture until I was ready to give up on the storm. We don't get a legit good pattern setup for a big snow that often anymore so losing one to bad luck was just hard for me to take! But I also think the TPV splitting and dropping fulling into the US, not only probably screwed up our chances at the big storm (not the lobe but from a 30k feet view I think it actually broke off TOO much energy and the ULL that was the result acted more like a PV than an ULL and was a suppressive not amplifying force) but that process also pinwheeled the AO block all the way into the US and linked up with the PNA and the PV filled the void and spiked the AO positive again. This created a "gap" in our colder regime. So instead of colder and maybe snowier Feb 20-Mar 10 we ended up with a break in the middle. So it screwed up both our short term chances at a MECS but also potentially our longer term chances by created a dead space in the middle of our MJO driven colder pattern. Luckly we probably will still get one more window of opportunity in March before time runs out.