psuhoffman

It never left. I was focused on the threat in front of us and didn’t want to engage with the “the sky is falling” takes because we got a temporary relax for a few days. I get it. It’s toward the end of winter so every day lost is magnified.

I know but no one’s in the mood. They’ll be back though as soon as some run inside 100 hours shows 6”

as you wish

God damnit

one more knife

Ok now it’s trolling me

I’d be super excited if I was in SC

Looks great to me @mitchnick lol this winter isn’t letting us go without more pain.

From a probabilistic pov this is 100. It’s true of every snow scenario. The number of permutations that produce snow are way less than the ones that don’t. Basically we need a storm to track trough a 100 sq mile box to get snow. The no snow permutations are the whole rest of the planet lol

Now that’s one for my book if it’s rain

I'm not sure that is all that unusual. If you look at our snoweist periods historically they don't typically have a PV hanging around close to us, which is also why our snowiest periods arent crazy cold either. Problem is the only time weve been cold enough to snow lately is with a PV close...I really don't want to get into this right now.

Can't disagree... just want to throw out that in seasons that had a definitive "trend" (not all do) March was the most likely month to get an anomaly that broke the snowfall norms of that season.

probably yes... but I brought up 2018 because that was a similar season, nina, most of the snow had hit to our NW or SE that year...a good Delmarva snow in January. Then we got that March snowstorm. You're right its not likely, but it does happen. That's all I got.

we know, we're just shooting the shit really with the model runs as an excuse

By March 15 the MJO will be getting into hostile territory again if the seasonal trends continue so this makes sense. I think our best window is only the first half of March. Which is fine because it takes a crazy anomaly to get snow after that anyways.

you are "probably" right... but ya never know. By April things will warm up no matter the pattern, a sunny day will feel good. What's another couple weeks of "chilly" to get one or two more rolls of the dice. Once in a while things do turn around. Remember how we felt getting into mid Feb 2015 when every freaking storm was hitting New England and we had almost no snow...then we got on a heater through mid March. March 2018 MD west of the bay had done awful all winter long...then we got that March 20 storm which was 4-8" for most of the area. And I dont know if you were up here yet...but you got about 15" where you live now from that one! It can happen. Probably not, but its not 0 and hope is all we got man.

I didn't really want to focus on the larger picture until I was ready to give up on the storm. We don't get a legit good pattern setup for a big snow that often anymore so losing one to bad luck was just hard for me to take! But I also think the TPV splitting and dropping fulling into the US, not only probably screwed up our chances at the big storm (not the lobe but from a 30k feet view I think it actually broke off TOO much energy and the ULL that was the result acted more like a PV than an ULL and was a suppressive not amplifying force) but that process also pinwheeled the AO block all the way into the US and linked up with the PNA and the PV filled the void and spiked the AO positive again. This created a "gap" in our colder regime. So instead of colder and maybe snowier Feb 20-Mar 10 we ended up with a break in the middle. So it screwed up both our short term chances at a MECS but also potentially our longer term chances by created a dead space in the middle of our MJO driven colder pattern. Luckly we probably will still get one more window of opportunity in March before time runs out.

bring it home

It was OVA OVA OVA last night once all the energy was on shore and no significant changes happened.

yea...and those down in VA will have to remember this also when there is a year like 2014 when they "only" get 25" and northern MD gets 60+. It goes in cycles. its pretty random. The only non random part to this is we have been in a long term nina ish pattern and that is not good for us. But that will flip when the PDO does.

we under achieved. It happens.... I've posted seasonal anomalies before to years that looked amazing but ended up below avg snowfall...and there are some like 2000 where the pattern looks god awful and somehow we got above normal snow. There is a lot of luck and fluke to snowfall because there are so many variables. Sometimes a great pattern can fail to produce because one or two things don't come together...and other times an only OK pattern can luck its way into hitting a MECS. It's kinda like poker...having 3 aces makes your odds of winning the hand a LOT better...but someone else might have a full house!

no one was looking forward to this run. Because we all knew it was just going to squash whatever was left of our silly hopes and dreams lol

you know