psuhoffman

The storm trended north. They got the part that was supposed to be over our area 3 days ago when you made that point. The problem limiting snow wasn’t moisture it was track and lack of closing off of the mid level low. It had plenty of juice.

@PhineasC not juiced enough...

Binghamton NY is getting destroyed right now. Going to be some CRAZY totals in that area.

What's your total up there?

Damn thanks for the heads up...just went out and its really coming down...huge flakes. My flood lights are out so I can't really tell without opening the garage and turning on the light over there. The flood light wasn't really in a great spot anyways...I need to figure something out.

That was the pinnacle of my snow weenie life. We already had 25" OTG going into that one and ended up with close to 30" in that storm. It had everything...the first part was a crazy thump of 12" heavy wet snow in 4 hours then part 2 was hours and hours of true blizzard conditions...I remember walking around town..drifts up to roofs just marveling at a sight you never see outside alpine resorts usually. I mean I've experienced that when I was in blizzards at Steamboat Springs, Revelstoke, and Jackson Hole...but never that combo of snow depth and blizzard conditions where I live. Probably never will again.

Let's break 10!!!

We are LOOOOOOONG overdue for a -AO winter

I can't wait to do some hiking (and more skiing) up there when my son and daughter get a little older.

I can't get an accurate measurement on the new stuff...wind is howling up on my ridge...blowing everything around. I would guess around 9" total so far. @HighStakes I am going to go with your measurement for the post sleet part of this storm...the wind up here is just too ferocious to get any kind of accurate measure. You might be more sheltered down there to get a better idea. Also...if we can get that band forming now to our SW to pivot through here in the next 2 hours we might break 10". Definitely a good way to start the year.

We are seeing that banding now...how much it fills and slows is the real issue...next couple hours at least...better runs like 18z euro keep it going until 3am or so...

you need to get under a heavy band to mix out the warm layer that blased north at the mid levels

I measured another inch of mostly sleet with some freezing rain and snow mix over the last 4 hours...on top of the 7" of snow I measured that fell between 11am and 5PM. So 8" storm total as of now but my depth is still 7" due to compacting.

As the system finally closes off its mid and upper level circulation we will see this current band continue to pivot, but it will also backbuild and fill a little...how fast that happens will determine our fate. I made my stance...I think we get a decent snowfall tonight...but we will see.

IF....dangerous word...the euro idea is correct another band develops behind the current back edge as the upper level support closes off and catches up to the surface low in the next few hours. I think that band will develop...its on ALL guidance now...but some develops it up over PA and some over MD. We will see soon.

Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances.

I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column.

Thanks @Cashtown_CoopI was just about to copy it here for the SE crew in this forum. Good luck.

@mappy @losetoa6 @Eskimo Joe @HighStakes @showmethesnow @DDweatherman I have been super busy all day...today was a big due day for tons of paperwork and reports before the holiday break. So forgive me if this was discussed, I haven't been able to keep up. But wanted to highlight the chances for our area tonight to get a little surprise. I am going to use the 18z euro because it has been the most consistent on the train...shown it for 5 runs straight now and it gets more pronounced every run. For the record the NAM's don't really like this idea...the HRRR is hit or miss run to run, but the RGEM 10K and 3K both are in the euro camp. We can see that area of precip breaking out to our SW in response to the mid and upper level energy approaching from the ohio valley... But as of now that energy is not phased up with the coastal and the developing precip is mostly mid and upper level instability related without any connection to the deep moisture transport associated with the coastal system. However...by 6z we can see the mid and upper levels have caught up and are phasing in with the coastal system and the results to the banding of precip (if that does indeed happen in sync like that) over our area. As the mid and upper level energy catches up to the surface system and phases that mid and upper level energy and instability will now have access to deeper moisture transport from the coastal. So we see the banding associated with it really explode. Keep in mind this is a 1 hour precip plot so that is heavy precip across all of central and northeastern MD. The red line denotes where I believe the rain snow line would be at this time. Looking at soundings across guidance the wam layers left at that time are thin enough that heavy precip would overcome north of that line...but that precip moves out slowly over the next 4 hours and that line sags south a bit. This next plot is the precip associated with that band that falls between 3z and 9z. The purple line is my estimate of where north of there all of this would be snow. The red line is the southern extent of where the changeover gets before about 80% of the precip is moving out. Not saying there cannot be any snow TV south of that line...but that is my estimate of where I think it is reasonable to think accumulating snowfall could get with this band. But keep in mind...if that band were to really get going more then even this prog shows....it could cool the column as the heights crash further south. Stranger things have happened. Probably the best example of a banding feature like this maxing out was that xmas day miracle snow we got in 2002. From the QPF if the euro is correct this could actually be a pretty sizeable amount along the northern tier of MD. Some places could get 4-6" which is an event in its own right. Maybe even more if everything maxes out perfectly. Of course...if the mid and upper level energy fails to sync up perfectly it could all just be a band of light precip that cannot overcome the leftover warm layers near 800mb and nothing comes of it. Now...how likely is this. The Euro has been doubling down every run for over 24 hours. The short range Canadian twins agree. The HRRR is kinda in between and the NAM says no thank you...it has the banding but too light to trigger the cooling needed to result in anything significant south of the PA line. The upper level pass is slightly north of ideal...but not bad. The mid level pass is really good. It's a matter of do they sync up right. Models suck at that. These things surprise both good and bad all the time. I am going to be an optimist here and say this does come together and we have a decent shot at some accumulating snow across the northern tier of MD tonight.

Mostly sleet now. 7” before the flip.

I don’t know what the top 20 is here...but I probably need a few more inches to crack it. Very doable though. Hrrr is keying on some wrap around tonight like the euro.

6” here. Probably 2”/hr right now. 25*

Areas north and west of Baltimore get a pretty nice band of snow tonight between 11-3am on the euro. It’s been there and getting more pronounced for several runs. Might be real.

Agree but it was nice to dream. just pointing out it’s coming back to reality the last 2 runs.

@Ji not liking the trend on the HRRR though. I went from 17 to 9” the last 2 runs. Keeps adjusting the warm layer and dry slot north faster the last 2 runs.