psuhoffman

It's just a few days, calm down. We are going to have a 2-3 week milder and more hostile for snow pattern...but we are already tracking possible longshot snow threads in the middle of this "worse" pattern and already seeing the signs of the flip back cold at the end. This is so much better than recent years when we spent the majority of winter in a no hope shutout looking pattern.

If you are where I think you are...your elevation is about 25-50 feet. This is actually lower than much of the Delmarva south of you. There is a really awful zone in northern DE south of the fall line to the canal linking the two bays. I've observed this area... warmth seems to come up the Chesapeake Bay and continue NE and links to the same effect coming up the DE bay that used to affect me when I lived in NJ. You live in a regional snowfall minimum. What's worse is those places well south of you on the DELMARVA probably don't get more snow than you...but they don't get less and they live geographically far from the areas that get a lot more...to their west a huge body of water divides them and they have to go far north. You are really close, only about 15-20 miles from places that get almost double your snowfall which makes it hurt even more. Trust me I've lived places like that and I know the pain...but it's not going to change, its due to geographic factors that will cause you to get less snow in most storms than places around you.

He probably had no idea and just came in and posted... Horrible what happened...nothing else to say really.

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time! In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!

Also seeing the trough showing up again on the central pacific. If that combines with a -AO again I don’t care what h5 says the cold will press east.

To elaborate my confidence is based on 3 things. 1. the analogs all suggested a colder snowier period between Feb 20-March 20 2. The AO had been in a very consistent cycle over the last 6 months and if you time it out it should be going negative again by Feb 20. Persistence here matches the analogs 3. When we bet a period of severe -AO/NAO like we had in early January it usually cycles again one more time after a relax. It doesn’t surprise me that guidance is now starting to hint at what “should” be coming.

I see nothing that’s changed my mind that we get colder again around Feb 20

Without blocking storms tend to trend NW. With blocking not so much. We saw both phenomena this season.

If it looks like that 48 hours out I’ll feel confident….. That I’ll get another big snow and 95 might get a slushy inch. JK….kinda

In fairness it trended warmer for the first 10 days of Feb from 1-2 weeks ago. But now fits a more logical progression

So should they wait for the next shift before issuing warnings?

That sucks...the phone.

2016 there was a 2” snow from a coastal that didn’t amplify much. Was a shame. Could have been a big storm but it was weak. 2017 Was the sleet bomb yes. How often has Baltimore had a 3” snow in any month lately? Baltimore has had 3” and 5” the same amount in March as Feb since 2009! We had this debate about 4 years ago and I wasted a few hours breaking every snow event down by week and found that the chances of 3”/6”/9” events are pretty steady through the first 2 weeks of March. Also our weekly average snow is pretty steady. The chances of getting a 6” snow are really low in any given week but aren’t much lower the first week of March than now. What does go down after Feb 20 are the chances of a 12”+ event. The notion that early March is harder to snow just isn’t supported by the data. This is perception bias. Yes most of our threats in March fail. End up too warm. But guess what, that’s true in February also! But in early March for some reason people attribute it to it being to late instead of the synoptic reasons it failed. Look at last week. We just had a marginal setup fail in DC and Baltimore and snow on the NW elevated portions of this forum. If that had happened early March you would have said it was because it was too late. I know because in 2019 almost the exact same setup happened and it snowed in almost the exact same areas in the same amounts but everyone acted like the fail was because it was early March when the issue was synoptic. The wave tracked too far NW which can happen anytime. Or think of Feb 8 2021. A perfect track coastal failed because of warm boundary temps. I got 6” here but anyone without elevation was too warm. But in 2013 when that happened we blamed it on being too late. It’s perception bias. We fail because it’s too warm most of the time even in January and February.

What are you talking about, Baltimore had a snowstorm in March 7 years in a row from 2013 to 2019. The last 5 years weren’t good but those were mostly warm winters and 2022 you missed a 3-6” snow by like 10 miles.

On paper. In the real world where it matters they are 17-2 and in the Super Bowl for the 5th time in 6 years. I’m not disagreeing that if both teams play to their talents top potential the Eagles should win. And there is a universe where the eagles get out to an early lead and steamroll them. But coaching and QB play can make up for a lot. KC has great coaching on both sides of the ball and a great QB. They do this all the time. The Eagles were more talented 2 years ago, had a 10 point lead at half time, our QB had a great game, but Andy schooled out D coordinator on the second half, found a flaw in our scheme and exploited it over and over with misdirection to get guys wide open on 3 straight drives. I’m not gonna underestimate them.

Sorry the eagles copyrighted that strategy

A lot of our snowstorms in the urban corridor are "messy" and barely cold enough even in the middle of the winter. Our chances of a snowstorm don't start to decrease significantly until around March 10-15 then go way down by March 20. However, the odds of keeping snowcover for any extended period of time go way down once to mid February.

but we both hate the Cowboys

It's totally Andy and Mahomes. And rightfully so, they are arguably the best coach/QB combo ever. That can make up for a LOT. I don't think anyone would argue the Eagles are not the best and most talented roster top to bottom. Now, this last game a lot of people convinced themselves Washington was going to win because they have the best QB and that was a mistake. But this is another level. I can see this game going either way but it won't be easy. It will take a near perfect game from a ridiculously talented team to defeat them. The Eagles are very capable of pulling it off but it's not a given.

I don't doubt we fight some -PNA coming up... but with the PDO not as hostile as recent years I wonder if its more muted. I also think once we get to the last week of Feb and March if we get another AO/NAO drop we can overcome the -PNA easier that time of year. It's why Ninas often end with a snowy/cold period after a warm first 20 days of Feb.

I've tried to isolate that but warm enso is less consistent. I think the issue is in general el nino's tend to get worse in March v Feb. If you look at the snowfall splits by week we have a HUGE spike in snowfall mean in Jan/Feb then it decreases in early March (compared to the normal climo drop). The years a warm enso had a big march coincided with crazy blocking and that can override a lot in March as it becomes more impactful with shorter wavelengths. It's a lot easier to overcome the -PNA with a -NAO in March.

The GFS and Euro have been showing this kind of thing randomly on about half their runs late in the period...I think it is where we are heading, cold enso seasons that had a period of extreme blocking earlier in winter typically had another late. But I think the operationals are rushing it probably, I expect us to get there eventually but probably later in Feb.

I actually think this is a good thing for our prospects Late Feb into March. The years where the Nina was fading towards neutral early actually had a lower frequency of snow/cold in March. I think the reason is as the wavelengths shorten the pacific ridge actually becomes less problematic. In years where the Nina background faded we had a lower chance of getting a snowstorm late in the season.

I could care less who wins but if they call some of this BS they’re calling to help the Chiefs in 2 weeks I’m gonna be pissed

Washington had a great season considering where they are in the rebuilding process. Amazing really. And JD is gonna be a pain in the ass for a long time.