psuhoffman

As is that’s likely to cut due north. Actually because of too much blocking. The blocking retrograded so far southwest that the trough cannot progress east at all and is just doing a fujiwara with SWs rotating around. But it has potential in that if you adjust the block north slightly it’s better. I Don’t mind seeing a too extreme solution.

Everything lol

Can’t argue. It’s pretty rough.

Definitely was a Saturday. I played in a soccer tournament that day when it was 60 degrees and that evening got 3” of snow.

Look at the 850 anomalies. The air is cold enough if we get a decent storm track. But regarding the surface anomalies there are 2 factors. First they use 1981-2010 climo to calculate and frankly our base state is warmer. Slightly below normal for RIGHT NOW is probably slightly above normal for the climo period the model is using. That’s depressing but it is what it is. The bigger factor is that we’re still suffering from the worst fall pattern ever that didn’t allow any cold to build anywhere in North America. Then blocking set in but we never got cross polar flow to inject the cold over in Asia. So we essentially blocked in the pac puke. The domestic airmass is slowly cooling but we’re still paying the price for the fact we rolled into December with the whole continent torching. There just isn’t any true cold around. Very small pockets form when an intense cyclone mixes it down then it quickly mixes with the surrounding airmass and moderates. We just need to hope that airmass is “cold enough” that with a good track we can get snow. It should be as we get into January. And if we can get an injection from cross polar flow at some point it would help going forward.

I am by no means an NWP expert. I didn’t get that deep into that before switching majors and most of what I do know is actually from my own research out of curiosity and wanting to understand some. But from my limited grasp if it is an EDM as he says then it focuses on using time series data to make causal inferences about the factors governing the observations in the time series and then use those correlations and inferred causalities to predict the future. That’s different from the typical nonlinear hydrostatic and non hydrostatic models that initialize the atmosphere then use the differential equations that govern physics to predict the future. Back to the original issue EDMs require significantly less computing power and resources. I am sure I didn’t do this justice and hopefully one of our resident NWP experts can chime in with a better explanation. @Disc @dtk @high risk

Should I remind you of this post the next time we need their cold air source for CAD?

Could be some nice convective snowshowers Xmas day as the upper low passes

Sooooo 2020 to end on a catastrophic ice storm . If it happens you will forever be associated with it lol. Best example of this and a good bust in some places was Feb 2015 when from 72 hours it looked like a rain storm and trended south so much that our area got 6-12” of snow despite a surface track to our NW. but that has an Arctic high with sub 0 temps in front of it.

You’re right.

Good point. If that system ejects in pieces that’s still a possibility

You have a point but I don’t know what organization backs him and sometimes there are low tech innovative ways to look at things like weighted analog models.

Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will.

No your posts are made to the board and ANYONE can respond. That’s how a public discussion board works. Anyone is free to reply to what others say. You don’t have to approve or invite anything. You didn’t take my advice last time you pulled this crap. If you don’t like being criticized try not to make as many bad posts! Don’t get mad at me just because your a crap poster.

Those means only go to 15 days. The blocking doesn’t even get into the western NAO domain (where it does us any good) until around day 10. But then we have to wait for a system AFTER the cutter that helps get the block to retrograde with its wave break around day 10. I would have liked to see something in the day 12-15 start to show but I’ll give it another few days before getting frustrated.

The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in.

He made a bad forecast. It’s not the end of the world. We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on.

Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS

The flip side to 2002 was 2000 when we had a good pattern for about 10 days all winter (and frankly it wasn't great it was just good) and maximized it. We don't hit during that 10 day period a couple times and the whole rest of that winter was a no hope god awful pattern. A repeat of that would not likely work out as well. In the long run it events out...times we get lucky in a not so good pattern or maximize a small window...and times we waste a good pattern. In that regards you would think we are due for some luck here.

you are correct...but I think we are discussing our overall snow prospects and the pattern evolution towards something favorable for that... not verifying DT's actual forecast which was a bust.

Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this. 2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this. 2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on). But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it. We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall. Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage. But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO. If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish. It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it. This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us. This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15. We should have got more out of this month IMO.

I think the 3" one you're thinking about was 2012.