psuhoffman

I’ll get a grip...

@leesburg 04 I think sometimes when I’m carrying on multiple different streams of thought in here they get confused. I’m really carrying on 3 distinctly independent conversations. 1. lamenting the expected but still disappointing fail of the split flow blocking pattern. We saw the signs that the antecedent airmass wasn’t going to work but there was some hope maybe given a pretty excellent longwave pattern we could get lucky. We didn’t. But there is also the fact that historically that pattern isn’t cold but it’s often been colder and just cool enough to get a better outcome. This year was pretty warm compared to analogs to that look. It’s worth noting that at least. 2. the degradation of the first discreet threat period (Jan 15-20) of what looks to be a colder N American regime is losing potential. It’s not a total pattern fail but there is a bit of MC forcing spike and the initial cold press goes west. We might even pop a ridge initially before the cold spreads east. It’s a see saw effect. Put a dump of cold west without enough cold already in the pattern east and...up goes our side. Over time the see saw will balance provided the blocking remains. 3. Longer term Jan into Feb still looks promising though. The blocking continues to look to have legs and we get cold back into our source regions. HM pointed out in another post in that thread I shared some of that the progression of the pattern after the initial maritime continent forcing could be favorable because we’re already in a blocking regime and cold will be pressing back into our source regions. We should have a period of -EPO -NAO late January into Feb. That’s hopeful. And I totally get the frustration and wanting to just be like “why bother” but I’m just breaking down where things stand now.

DT isn’t even here anymore to hear it.

Yes but wasn’t that always our target too? Although i think we were hopeful maybe starting around the 15th but the last week of January looking more likely now. But my point is even though we kinda expected it to fail...it’s still a fail right?

I don’t like to assume an interpretation of someone else’s thoughts. That’s possible but I do know weeks ago he was implying he felt optimistic for January snowfall so I read it to be more about the “total” part. He takes a much more global view then IMBY. Parts of the southern plains and Deep South have had one of their snowiest winters in forever. But again...I don’t want to put any words in anyone else’s mouth.

Confirmation of what we’ve been saying for a while.

HM still seems hopeful.

We need to get cold into the pattern. The pac still looks to be more favorable to get cold back on our side soon. That’s delayed here because the initial cold goes west first but if the blocking is still there it will expand east after. If we can hold onto the blocking after the cold gets into the pattern we will have more luck. The fail option is if the blocking breaks down then Feb will end up cold west ridge east because the epo ridge is too far west absent blocking. Epo alone doesn’t work it needs other factors working in concert.

Past 150 is dangerous. I’ve been saying the globals seem to hone in on synoptic level details starting around 150. Those threats evaporated right as we reached that threshold.

By bar is somewhere between 12” and some random flakes. Also I’m way more willing to be interested in a minor snowfall within 48 hours. But investing time tracking a clipper or some snow showers no.

Some pity flakes maybe. A real snowstorm...ehh. You should talk to losetoe6

@CAPE the eps actually fully caved to the GEFS pattern progression in the long range. But both have now picked up on something that mutes our opportunity before that. It makes sense in hindsight. After the poleward pac ridge goes up and the initial dump of true cold goes into the west...a ridge will pop as response in the east. At that time there isn’t enough cold in the east yet for that see saw equation to end well. It also doesn’t help that the NAO ridge still is just an extension of the WAR at that time and hasn’t retrogrades and cut off enough yet to fully resist the SE ridge. But with the blocking that cold starts to bleed east and eventually we get a pattern that can work. The only problem there is that’s a more typical Nina pac and the STJ will be totally cut off. So the fear is if the NS doesn’t gain enough depth it’s a dry NW flow pattern and we watch New England get late developing Miller Bs. It has worked before though. March 2018 was a poleward pac ridge -NAO pattern. But remember that was frustrating at times with 2 miller b miss big New England storms before we finally got our snowstorm. January 2011 had a poleward PAC ridge buy it stayed centered just off the west coast and never fully pulled back too far. Feb 2006 kinda worked...we got one big snow but we waited around most of the month with a great block waiting for that one southern wave to come along. That general pattern has lead to snowstorms but it can be really frustrating if the NS is dominant and nothing amplifies.

Yes or if the block is really flexing crazy transfers from the Midwest to the coast.

It degraded significantly since then. The trough doesn’t have enough depth and it’s all NS now

Never seen a full Rex block on a day 10+ ensemble mean like the 6z GEFS. That’s crazy. The Atlantic looks as perfect as we could hope for. Unfortunately the pac goes to hell and the central pac ridge goes ape which will try to force a western trough eastern ridge. The Atlantic does resist and the pac ridge is more poleward which will inject more cold and press the boundary more SE then typical with that pac ridge trough alignment. That combo has worked in the past but it requires getting enough cold into the pattern to press east under the block. Lately that last part has been a problem.

Loop day 10-16. A NS SW that tracks through the lakes gets to Maine then loops north and west to Hudson Bay then dives back to the lakes. That’s pretty blocked. The flow is very blocked. But a block can’t make all those SWs in the NS disappear. That’s a result of the hopped up pac jet. But it’s all NS and the NS is flying too many SWs around for anything to dig and amplify. This is one reason our better hecs look with blocking is the split flow with a trough off the west coast. That way systems come in across the south and the NS is out of the way up in Canada. But that wasn’t working this year because there was no cold in the pattern at all. Losing the split flow will get the NS into the US and inject cold but we just saw what the danger with that could be.

Ggem went to the euro NS dominant progression too.

Yea except our avg snow in a -AO Nina winter is close to median which isn’t a lot but it’s not this crap either.

All NS like euro. Icon went that way too.

For the 19th threat...more amplified deeper trough and a 50/50.

Usually I agree. But then we’re back to the split flow idea and that hadn’t been working wrt cold lol. Double bind.

Yes the main pv displacement went to their side. We still benefit from a weakened PV in general and as the pac pattern retrogrades and we get some cold into our side maybe that finally pays off.

The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. this... leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall... if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits.