psuhoffman

BTW I did not include 2013 and 2006 (even though they are being tossed around) in my comps because I don’t think they are as good matches. Feb 2013 the blocking was centered way too far NE for what we want and the PAC was an absolute floating dumpster fire level awful. March 2013 the pattern did get legit good and I know no one wants to hear that...but it was part bad luck and part just being a little too late. We got 2 perfect bowling balls that month but temps were marginal on the coastal plain (which is often a March issue) and both failed to come together perfectly to overcome that. You move both those storms to Jan/Feb and DC would have had 12” and 6” storms from those 2 systems. 2006 again the blocking was centered a bit east of ideal AND the pac was a lot worse then the base state has been so far this year. The result was an eastern trough centered too far north for our purposes. And yet we did still manage one MECS. But it wasn’t a great period overall. The look right now on all guidance (supported by a natural evolution of the base state we have seen so far in the Atlantic and Pac) looks a lot more like the evolution in 2009/2010/2016/2018. Obviously 2018 was significantly later in winter then the other 3 so you have to adjust for that.

One last point wrt this pattern and expectations. The fact that guidance doesn’t show some big blizzard RIGHT NOW isn’t a reason to worry. At this stage in the development of our recent severe blocks nothing was showing up either. Go back to a few days before the blocks formed in Feb 2018, Jan 2016, Dec 2010, Dec 2009...nothing was showing up on the radar then either. It wasn’t for at least another week after the block developed before we were tracking a discreet threat. But 2/4 ended up EPIC and the other 2 we did at least get several snows and at least 1 warning event from. So while this “could” fail history says we probably get at least some snow from a pattern like this and there is a very good chance it’s a lot of snow...by our standards...but we have to be patient.

But it isn’t snowing. sorry Ji hacked my computer

FWIW the para GFS last few runs looks much more like the euro and CMC in the long range with systems tracking south of us. Snow is still a long shot until after the 15 or so due to lack of cold but it’s interesting the para gfs has aligned with the euro in the long range a lot more often and has been killing the GFS on synoptic features in the medium to long range imo. It even picked up on this Sunday system before the euro. It did run too cold but it was the closest to reality of all the globals and that’s not the first time this cold season. This upgrade looks pretty significant.

When my worst case is we end up with a mediocre instead of great patter (AFTER) a week of a great pattern...we’re doing pretty good.

Is the Jan 20 HECS going to delay the start of the civil war?

@frd we will see what tonight’s EPS weekly says but the last run and the extended GEFS runs this week linger blocking straight through into February. My biggest fear isn’t the high latitudes it’s the pacific. But not the fear others have. I’m actually more worried if the N PAC vortex pattern breaks down we resume a more canonical Nina look. This here from the GEFS extended would be problematic. We would be fighting a SE ridge in that look. We want that N PAC trough to stick around to direct that ridging into the west coast more and keep it from popping out there in the central PAC. ETA: it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. EETA: that look isn’t the worst. It’s not a shutout look. But it’s a look that mutes our chances to cash in a but. Storms might try to amplify west...or we could see a typical Nina miller B pattern with that look that makes it harder to cash in here. Still there a better look then we had all last year just pointing out what my bigger fear then the blocking is.

Their ability to predict the high latitudes that far out is very low. The reason I had confidence in the blocking coming now is it made sense wrt progression of features I could already see and had faith in not in fantasy land ranges. It’s normal for blocking to wax and wane and sometimes a relax is when our best chances come. We don’t want a full break down but I’m not worrying about that yet. Guidance has spooked us many times breaking down blocking at long range only to have it simply be a relax or in some cases not even a relax. History strongly suggests when we see blocking of this magnitude develop it lingers quite a while. I would ride that for now.

@Ji we gonna do our normal “thing” again where the first week of a blocking regime you whine constantly about “what good is a block when it’s still not snowing” and I say wait we typically do better on the backside of blocking regimes not the front. Just asking. I’m ready.

Pretty sure this temp profile will work fine

Deepest trough in the northern Hemisphere showing up over the eastern US. And a tiny spec of “Barney” for the first time in how long...

@Ji btw I am not saying I don’t dream bigger or a bigger result isn’t very plausible. There are some signs the Nina isn’t driving this bus. Maybe we cash in big. But I personally don’t like to set my bar that high and be disappointed all the time.

But we are still within a rather hostile pac background state and a healthy Nina to boot so maybe we need to be realistic. For me I feel like getting a good result “for a Nina” should be the goal. At least one nice region wide warning level storm and to beat median snowfall. That’s pretty rare for a Nina. History says when we get blocking in a Nina we get some snow and avoid a total dud winter but only 1996 had big results by non Nina standards. But 1996 is out there as “possible” but setting the bar at a 1/100 year type outcome for a Nina is kinda setting yourself up to be disappointed Imo. But you do disappointed well...it’s your defining characteristic so I guess roll with it!

Oddly the pattern better matches Feb 2010 then Dec 2010 on profs wrt blocking and trough location imo

It’s not way out at day 15 anymore. Guidance has actually been speeding up the progression. It gets even better after this

That or the wave after are my guess

@Ji the last 2 weeks we had a bad track because of the WAR. If we get a legit NAO block that issue will go away

Dude it snowed 15 days ago and I had snow-cover for a week. It hasn't been a warm winter. Its been a poor storm track winter I’m not talking about December. I’m talking about what’s coming. That 920 mb vortex cruising into the Bering is about to flood us with pac puke. That’s going to take some time to recover from.

The storm in front slides east instead of north which opens a crack for that to cut. Still I doubt it cuts to that extreme in reality. That was odd. And it’s 14 days away so I wouldn’t worry at all. In 6 hours we get a different solution.

I doubt anything cuts there. But out airmass at that point is still pretty abysmal. It’s going to take a couple waves and cold air drainage in the NW flow behind them to fix that. I remember a similar situation to this early in several blocking regimes that started with pac puke airmasses. Specifically I remember an exact clone to this discussion in early January 2016 when long range guidance hinted at a cutter...and we had this same exact exchange, and it ended up not cutting but was still rain. Because of the general warmth the primary hung on too long (not had there been cold but too long when we have a crap airmass) and it ended up a big old rainstorm anyways with a pretty good track. I could see that here. I agree with Wxusaf that we could luck into something with a perfect track. It’s not impossible. That block will likely keep us close and tease us. But until we get some cold into the east (probably around the 15-20th) it’s not going to be a high probability imo.

That model is hitting something

I never disagreed with THAT. I’ve been saying we have to be patient and wait for true blocking to establish and the temporary trough that crashes the west to pull back. My retort was to your post implying we need a total reshuffle and some huge EPO ridge and a breakdown of blocking to get cross polar flow. I think we just need to let the pattern progression we are on play out.

This is a composite of some blocking periods that centered the greatest + snow anomalies in our area. this is a composite of 3 years where the blocking didn’t do us much good but crushed New England. It’s subtle but look at the west and east. There are lower heights in the west on the NE comp and the trough in the east is centered slightly further northeast as a result. Note we don’t need some big PNA ridge with a block but we don’t want a full trough in the west either. Off the NW coast is ok but not crashing full in. One exception is March. Once wavelengths shorten in March that works. Some of our big blocking March storms had a trough in the west. I know this looks subtle but on a planetary scale us and NE aren’t that far apart so looking at a hemispheric map the differences seem subtle.

Lol they aren’t used to having to read the tea leaves of day 15 ensembles to look for their snow. Also a big block isn’t the holy grail to them that it is to us. They can do good but they can also get screwed. They also have way more ways to snow then us. And a lot of them up there are into snow pack building and frankly a blocking pattern isn’t the best for that. They aren’t typically cold, can warm up between storms, and if a storm gets trapped and hugs the coast they are susceptible to rain more in a blocking pattern. An east based -EPO with a displaced TPV is probably what they want most. 1994 and 2015 are their holy grail patterns.

SNE can do ok but they can sometimes be vulnerable to the storm being suppressed south depending on details wrt 50/50, exact block location, PNA ridge amplitude and location...the first 4 big storms in 2009/10 all went south of them. Then as a real kick in the sack the 5th HECS storm (the one that hit NYC and fringed our northeast area) cut due north and went to rain for them. They had a similar fate in 1987. They actually do better if there is more trough into the west coast as that’s more a miller b pattern. That’s what happened with the Feb storm in 2013. That block screwed us over. Missed that bomb then the March 2013 storm...I won’t go there. I’m pretty sure their big winter of 69 was the same, great block but with a western trough so that there were a lot of storms that started far enough north to really bomb off New England. That’s why we only had a decent but not great year in 69 despite amazing blocking. But some of our big storms from a west -NAO got southern NE too. I certainly wouldn’t want to be too far north in NE though. It all depends on the details once they set up wrt who exactly it favors. Fwiw the look I see on long range guidance now favors the mid Atlantic.