psuhoffman

It looks like one of the more impressive events we’ve tracked and given the already pathetic state of the TPV it wouldn’t take much coupling at all to knock it out for the count this winter.

I doubt it can gain much (if any) latitude once to the east coast and with that h5 pass it’s possible. But the coastal plain needs 2 things to go well. 1. Get the storm to transfer to the coast quick and clean. 2. I say clean because once it does you need it to be a tightly wound system synced up at all levels (unlike the mid dec storm). Need the surface mid and upper levels to come together. No broad diffuse system that takes a while to redevelop off the coast. But if you get those 2 things with the current h5 look I could see a better result for the lowlands. But those are 2 big asks.

Looking better and better

One seasonal trend I’ve noticed is things tending to trend colder overall. I had snowcover for a week that looked like a torch from long range. That storm was a lakes cutter from 10 days out. Right now I was supposed to be torching and I had a snow sleet mix all day yesterday and awaiting freezing rain now. So far this is not a year where warmer automatically wins on guidance. We are lacking any true arctic air but at least we have that going for us.

Sometimes flukes happen but with a marginal airmass and that 8th system originating pretty far north to our west, I agree that would be a tough ask for the eastern shore.

6z EPS was considerably colder at the end of its run.

@CAPE will be happy to know the GEFS has a cluster of suppressed Richmond snowstorm solutions.

The pac trough has crashed in a couple times only to quickly pull back, despite at times guidance indicating it would be a more extended problem. That’s one reason I was never too concerned about the pac ruining things in the longer term.

Bootleg

@Ji new year. Read the shirt!

I told you in December last year winter was likely going to be an epic fail. I said I would keep tracking like I always do just in case we got lucky and I was wrong but when I got that fluke little wave in early January I told myself it might be the only snow I saw all year and I made sure to enjoy it. And it was! But I was content. I resigned myself to it early. This year my snowblower is gassed and tuned up (already used it once) and if we don’t get at least one more really good storm I will be very disappointed. My bar isn’t as high as yours but I do think we snow a decent amount this winter.

Fear is the path to the dark side

I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride.

Normally with the gfs I agree. But for some reason the GFS has been cutting storms into the block in the long range while other guidance is more suppressed.

I noticed that in his post too! The -5 AO though...how long we been waiting to see that?

For once he is late to the hype party. And not totally wrong. The danger in those analogs is there were other examples of that pattern that didn’t max out to that degree. It’s always dangerous to use the most extreme example of a pattern to set the bar.

Ugh I’m sorry. Any chance you can take a road trip home sometime as we get out back to back to back HECS?

@MillvilleWx how’s your snow looking???

I didn’t mean it that way. We have the look I’m describing day 10-20 on guidance. After that it retrogrades the pac pattern a bit. I’m saying I prefer the look day 10-20 over 20-30...and it’s still good just not AS good. And it might be wrong as long range has been going that way falsely for a month now.

@CAPE I’m starting to think that central pac Nina look the Uber long range guidance wants to go to around week 4-5 is just a model figment anyways. It’s been doing that since November weeks 4-5 and Keeps pushing it back. It’s forever stuck at 4 weeks away. Imo it’s the same phenomenon as in 2019 when the NWP continuously wanted to morph the pattern to a canonical modoki nino look as it was losing the forcing signal for whatever was running interference and was relying too heavily on enso at range. It’s been doing it this year (only the opposite way) and I am getting confident it’s not real. And even if it is we get 2 weeks of damn good before that. The good news is no guidance even hints at the NAM state flipping positive.

I would prefer that N pac trough tucked in closer to AK to get more ridge into the southwest but I’m being really picky. But that look there “could” be a miller B pattern. Please don’t think I’m saying it’s not good just a matter of good v very good here.

Why not the pattern matches 2010 when we did get 4 significant snows in 12 days. Obviously that was a lucky maxing of potential but it’s not impossible.

@CAPE I know it gets super extra weenie at the end but this is only 8 days away and we would have killed for this look at any point the past few years. This has been incredibly consistent and now it’s moving into the “it’s really happening” range. That collapse of the TPV in December plus the way two attempts to reconsolidate the TPV near Greenland were immediately deflected along with the persistent N Atlantic Ridge had me more confident then normal in the fantasy land block evolution but it’s still reinsuring to see it moving into the medium range now.

Build the pattern and the clown snow maps will come