psuhoffman

Maybe 99 was the one that hit the DC area...I wasn't really affected by either I was at PSU those 2 winters. I love Montreal. There was a cute little Irish pub on Bishop or Crescent St...can't remember which.

our best chance at any snow might be that clipper that goes to our north next week...wouldn't be the craziest adjustment I've ever seen to get that south. Not saying its a good shot, just our best shot.

Thought that was 99

I've seen speculation regarding the timing of the TPV and cut off low. IMO that doesn't matter much, it's the amplitude of the trough and ridge that matters. If the amplitude continues to be too great (Deep trough with a huge ridge behind it) the cut off low is simply going to stall and wait then cut once the ridge in over top it. Even if it tried to eject into that deep trough it would get shredded to oblivion in that look. The only way this would work if with a flatter flow over the top allowing the cut off low to eject under it.

We should ask Ji. He is the ultimate arbiter of whether it’s a good winter right?

But I don’t grade winters purely on that number. I had a nice surprise snow in November. I’ve had some snow on the ground most of the winter! If I get one more nice snowstorm, say an 8” storm sometime in Feb or March I’ll give this a B. It’s already a C even without anymore snow. 2 more decent storms and it’s getting close to A territory whether I hit average or not.

I need 21”. That might be hard but a couple of the analog years would get me close. I need 16” though to hit my median which is more realistic.

I was referring to putting out a forecast for a single storm at day 8. It might end up rain to Canada or suppressed to nothing for all we know. But didn’t southeast of us get that first storm? At least southeast of me lol. I guess it’s all perspective. I actually think this winter has been oddly diffuse so far with no defined track. One storm went really far south. One hit Bob Chill area with 3-5” And we got 1-2” One jacked just SE of DC and one just NW. there is a huge area in the east near to slightly above norm on snow but no area got crazy totals because the storms were all over the place.

Did you see the blocking on the euro? I think it’s rushing it but I think we get one more AO tank and one more period of blocking before time runs out.

Barney won't ever be the same

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level! To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive! I bow down to you sir.

but which normals are they using?????

TORCH

frankly its the same snow hole @RevWarReenactor lives in, if its for the geographic reasons I suspect it extends NE right along the Bay then continues NE and links up with the Delaware Valley near the canal to the snowhole in SW NJ that I experienced first hand growing up.

Oh hell that is DEFINITELY the reason for your snow hole

That's "incoming" right there

That is a perfect gradient right there!

Yea, while the AI has destroyed our little window around Jan 30-Feb 2, beyond that it's muting the warm up and is way ahead of schedule in how its evolving the pacific and high latitudes towards going back into a colder pattern. If that is the trade off, losing one low probability threat for a faster flip back to a better longer term pattern... I will take that.

Maybe to hide the fact he is a really bad forecaster?

Frankly I'm not familiar just going off what everyone here says...but I have no reason to doubt the Dundalk Snow Hole

But does it still flip us back cold by Feb 6 like the 6z run did? lol

Exactly, having a good pattern is like having an extra face card in a poker hand...its good but no guarantee. I'll go there... This is why having our bad patterns become "god awful" due to warming is a big deal...because we don't always score in good patterns...but historically we also sometimes do score in bad ones...if we lose the ability to fluke into snow in a bad pattern it hurts our climo in the long run a lot. That does NOT mean we can't snow and get cold when there is a good pattern...that is a totally different argument that I have NEVER made.

If you ever need a reminder of how much chance plays in all this... This was one of our least snowy January's And this was one of our snowiest lol

Sorry, did I speak any lies?

We definitely didn't max out... But given how dry its been, which is a cold enso staple, we did ok. We really only had 4 legit wave threats and the south and central part of this forum hit one of them and the northern 1/3 hit on another, one was a low end event, and one got suppressed. That is a pretty good hit rate...we just didn't have much opportunity because it was so dry. We had almost an identical pattern to 2009 and we did much much better wrt snowfall. It's a small sample size so who is to say whether we got lucky this year...or unlucky that year...but it could have gone worse! 2009 January looked like this and we had almost no snow at all to show for it!