psuhoffman

I didn't want to say it...but that's possible right now. I am curious where things go after. It looks to be setting up an EPO ridge -AO/NAO look. That is super rare. They also can be wildly variable. If the EPO ridge is far enough east its an EPIC pattern. But if it retrogrades too far west it can be a frustrating cold/dry warm/wet pattern. What is your gut on that look?

I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is.

Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it.

At least we get to watch that miller b blizzard New England at the end of the run.

The cold comes in behind the northern stream miller b type system around the 15th. That is VERY likely to go to our north...then the cold hammer comes down behind it.

We're gonna get Miller B'd at the end of the run lol

Agree...I am totally fine with where things are right now. But I also share your (and others) frustration wrt the the result we just looked at...and it seems to be a theme we are seeing a little too often in recent years. All those flaws I pointed out are real but imo they are a better excuse for why it wasnt a big storm...not a good excuse for why it was a 37 degree all rain event. It didn't used to take a freaking absolutely PERFECT setup in every way just to get some snow around DC. Lately it seems unless its absolutely perfect in every little way its not happening. Its either HECS or nada lately. There is one obvious elephant in the room that could be the cause of some of that.

This next wave is still (frustratingly) coming before we really have any true cold to play with. So a weak shearing out wave is not going to work. We need the system to be amplifying on approach not washing out. It's going well through like 120 and then a combination of things go wrong imo. The flow is a little too suppressive. I know that sounds crazy when its so warm but the flow can't totally fix the lack of cold around. And the system splits and leaves a piece behind (probably in response to the shred factor its crashing into) and in response the wave starts to weaken and shear out. The weak POS wave left when it gets to us won't do us any good. We need an amplifying upper low passing just to our south OR NS phasing to infuse colder air for this to really work (like the last 2 euro runs) a weak all southern wave wont cut it when the antecedent airmass is still crap.

The trough splits the energy again and strings out...so the wave is deamplifying and shearing out as it approaches which won't work because the airmass still isnt good. We need a bomb...a weak wave won't end well.

I am a little worried about the NS wave coming across Canada right on top of it....otherwise its BEAUTIFUL but...we need that flow to our NE to back off a LITTLE and that wave threatens to squash it south...will be close though.

yea I was looking at 0z lol. That's a nice H5 low over KS/MO but a LOT of confluence to the NE. The initial wave sheared out ala last nights Euro but it could be headed towards a similar secondary development IF that shred factory to our NE can relax some.

I am with you. On a side note... something I've noticed in recent years (last 6 winters really) is that we go LOOOOONG stretches without any snow...even nickel and dime type stuff when the pattern isn't right. Last year was just awful in EVERY way but those actually do happen once a decade or so where the pattern is just god awful in the PAC and Atlantic and its a no hope total dud winter everywhere. But across the whole of the last 6 years we only get any snow at all during good patterns. We have still had a decent number or snowstorms during that time...but what we are missing are the smaller nickel and dime storms that used to hold us over between warning level events. Lately we need a really good pattern to score and the rest of the time we dont even get a lucky front end 1-3" or a 2" clipper or some fluke 1-2" on the backside of a cutter or some anafront wave. All those insignificant events that used to at least make it feel like winter while we waited for the perfect pattern to deliver a warning level event.

All guidance is having a hard time with all the discreet NS waves. But the euro and gfs are now both keying on that more significant SW diving into the central US and amplifying. The euro developed a monster coastal in back to back runs from that only oddly using 2 different progressions. One by phasing it with the southern SW. Last nights run the spacing was too great and so it washed the southern wave out then developed a whole new surface system behind it. The details are going to keep changing because there are too many SWs to resolve details at this range but I think the key lies with that energy diving down into the plains. We want that to stay stronger. If that is as healthy as guidance suggests the chances something works out are better.

It’s getting kinda ridiculous. Maybe they programmed the DC snow hole into the algorithms.

Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult.

I assume you mean p17.

You are 100% correct about what our best scenario was 3 days ago when that NS vort was diving down over Lake Erie. If that had trended west and come in through Michigan we were golden. But that ship sailed and at this point, while its very very very slim, it’s trended so far the other way that perhaps there is a slight crack open for this to come north some. That NS SW trended so far east it has allowed the upper low to trend back north. It’s actually taking a perfect track for us again after it looked to be squashed down into the Carolinas the last couple days. But there are 2 problems. Without the NS phase there isn’t much cold and so a very limited precip shield to the north of the low. That ship has sailed so moving on. But the other issue is the NS SW up near Maine now instead of NY starts to absorb the system and it’s opening up and washing out by the time it gets here. This is very unlikely at this range but not impossible that if the spacing can increase just a bit more that the h5 low could hold on an extra 12 hours or so and that could pull the storm up the coast and additional 50 miles or so but also increase the moisture flow off the Atlantic for a while. Get “this” adjustment to the look and suddenly a surprise is possible. Again not likely but not crazy impossible. If the adjustments to the NS continue at the same rate it would probably would happen but those adjustments become less likely as leads shorten so at some point I suspect they stop and we do see further north nudges but not to the degree we need.

The end of week 3 after a SSW is when the cold really starts to correlate but some have suggested that timeline can speed up some when the TPV was already weak. So seeing the cold appear towards day 15 on guidance isn’t out of line with normal progression.

There is split flow out west actually but the blocking forces the NS to rip across the northern CONUS and there are 8,000 vorts flying across acting as a shred factory for anything that tries to come from the south.

It was a little odd how it didn’t phase the initial wave and instead had it wash out in favor of the wave behind. But the h5 evolution of that second wave was just classic. It was a nice ending to a very good night. Cheers.

It washed the initial wave out because of the monster wave amplifying right behind it. The evolution at h5 of that system was very similar to Jan 1996. Beautiful monster closed h5 low with a perfect track. That solution didn’t even maximize potential. The storm got a late start because of the initial wave running the baroclinic zone and deep moisture feed off the coast ahead of it but the upper level pattern was so perfect another storm exploded behind it anyways as the upper low got close enough to tap whatever gulf and Atlantic moisture left.

So far the Mjo hasn’t been a major influencer this year. Could it become more dominant and could it shift back to the MC....lots of could there and that’s a long way out. I won’t pretend to know.

The block is 12 hours old and already there is a chorus line ready to declare bust.

say it again for the people in the back ... @Ji

I stayed at a holiday inn express once