psuhoffman

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how. The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work. Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.

The ridge is a little west, more a WPO then an EPO...which is "ok" if we have a -NAO.

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years. So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35". By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date. But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO. Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.

Shockingly it trended more amped after everything else went sheared

I was talking about the DC area. I am below climo for up here now anyways and that’s pretty astounding given the AO.

Don’t forget that nice 3-5” event around Jan 20 that year

So long as the AO/NAO stay negative that WPO ridge will put us in the game. But if the NAO/AO flip that epo ridge is centered way too far west. In a +NAO we would need the EPO ridge positively tilted extending into the Yukon not centered through AK.

It’s possible that what happened in November basically doomed us through the first half of either. That was the worst possible pattern imaginable and robbed us of any cold build up on our side of the hemisphere

Don’t use 2m temps in the long range ensembles. Because that still uses the older climo period and because warming will be most pronounced at the surface any outlier members that have a ridge will be a torch and skew the mean. 850 anomalies age a much better indicator at range. That said 12z gefs backed off on the extreme cold of the previous few runs. But it’s still cold. Maybe that’s better.

Loaded question but does your gut say this is just one of those luck things (it has happened before but not often) or possibly portends something more painful wrt a more hostile snow climo now v the past? Of course a little if both can be true.

That was when the euro ran once a day at 12z. So if the euro had a storm on 3 consecutive runs that means it held the look over 3 days. That’s the equivalent of 12 straight runs now that it runs every 6 hours. You considering that?

Every model will likely fail when it’s on its own. A real confident snow signal would be when the majority of all guidance shows it over multiple runs. Grasping at outlier runs (even if it’s the euro) is usually a losing bet.

That’s been my “target” date for over a week. But I won’t deny I was hopeful we would get something before then. The pattern is good enough you would think we would luck into something sooner or later. But the next 7 days looks suppressive and then we need to wait for that NS wave around the 15 to clear and get the gradient south of us probably. Good news is there looks to finally be a gradient lol. So on the one hand things still are progressing well and the cold is coming and around the 20 looks like a great opportunity I’m still getting frustrated we can’t score something with the consistently decent dominant longwave pattern we’ve had since late November. This is bordering on ridiculous that we can’t even seem to sniff a 2-4” type thing in a sustained non hostile pattern. This had not been a shutout look (as bob would say) yet we have been shutout!

The PNA has been positive too. I know people will point out this or that detail that wasn’t perfect but I agree with you. If DC can have a run of -AO +PNA like this and not get any appreciable snow thats pathetic and scary.

It’s the same look on the GEFS and EPS

@Snowchaser btw having contours for every inch? Do you have OCD?

But 2018

@Ji I am just as frustrated as you...but there is a STRONG signal across all major guidance where this is headed post Jan 15 (which go back weeks was ALWAYS the target for this pattern evolution). Once we get the TPV displaced into southeast Canada and ridging out west...I think we will have higher probability events with storms that actually amplify and have a healthy precip representation because there will be a true baroclinic boundary to work with. ALso...look at the last few runs of the long range GFS. Seeing NS systems digging all the way south of us like that is what we want to see at that range. Hold the line....

look at the GFS h5 I posted above...the CMC looks exactly the same with the NS. Shred factor right on top of us. We need that whole flow to lift about 200 miles. The ridge is still centered too far south which is forcing the confluence right on top of us instead of a bit to our north. Nothing can amplify up the coast with that look. That's why I keep saying the next reload of the blocking centered more towards Baffin to Greenland looks promising. That is where we want it. This isn't actually a model fail, from long range the blocking was always shown centered a bit far south of our ideal spot but I think (and usually rightfully) we didnt worry about a slight detail like that from long range. But the guidance NAILED it and the -NAO ridge is a little too far south so suppression is a risk. Hopefully the guidance nails the next period of blocking equally well because it looks PERFECT after we had one period of AO blocking centered slightly too far north and one period centered slightly too far south...maybe we finally get just right.

This is a silly semantics argument. It is not a true closed rex block...but over the years we have started calling a -NAO ridge "blocking" and it does block the flow just not as much so as a true rex block. This is a true -NAO ridge not bootleg, but no its not currently a closed rex block. But the problem is not that it is the pacific side. The "blocking" has already forced the last 2 shortwaves south of us but no one noticed because one was just too warm anyways despite a perfect track and rain and the other had no surface reflection and we got flurries. The next 2/3 waves get forced south of us also but there is no baroclinic zone and so they also look to be weak sauce and don't amplify. But the pattern is plenty blocked in the east...the pacific jet on the other hand needs to chillax. That miller b wave around the 15th has trended so far north its not even looking good for New ENgland now...there might be a trailing wave on the front associated with the wave way up in canada and MAYBE we get something minor out of that but the period around the 15th doesn't look good for a big storm here. Better times after that imo. That is more a problem when we get a cold dump during a progressive +NAO period in a nina, which is more common. Blocking during a nina is very unusual but when we do get it that precip hole right over DC isnt as pronounced. As Ji said our biggest problem so far has been a lack of cold. We have had about 5 PERFECT track storms so far this cold season that ended up 40 degree rainstorms in DC because there was just no cold to work with.

This is the adjustment we need to get a big storm from that setup...not impossible at that range.

I tend to agree but didn't want to be the one to say it (especially given my location). But the issue is both the lack of deep cold but also where the little cold is centered to our west combined with the suppressive flow to our northeast. That combination favors one of 2 scenarios...lacking a good baroclinic boundary and facing a hostile flow the system shears out or gets squashed south or the system amplifies enough to increase ridging in front of it and comes up...but that favors a track inside what the coastal plain would need given the antecedent airmass. Even up here, if the storm ends up phased or amplified enough to ride the coast rain is a threat imo. But...I think your time will come...things are starting to come into focus (and its following the expected progression frankly) down the line. Better threats for the coastal plain east of 95 will be ahead imo. I totally get it...and I agree. I would much rather be discussing the details of a specific threat...but we need somewhere to discuss the broad pattern stuff also...and this is the place. I do kind of agree maybe a split thread just for long range pattern discussion would be good and a thread for medium range day 3-6 type more specific storm threats...but we did try that once and people (intentionally IMO) mucked that up too. That look is kind of extreme and rare. Normally I would say it's not worth digging into an op at range but all the ensemble guidance supports that general idea. The ensembles favor the block more towards Baffin (which might be even better for us) but the idea of a severely displaced northern stream running across the CONUS under the block is there across all guidance. The thing about that look is the STJ would be pretty cut off coming in off the SW and normally that would be a problem (typical nina stuff) and we would need to get the NS to dig under us (normally a dead end) but that look is so extreme its actually possible we could get the pacific systems to dig down far enough south that it could be a west to east hybrid miller b type pattern which is a good one for us...provided the NS comes in far enough south. The danger would be if that shifts north some...and the NS comes across at about our latitude instead of across to our south...it becomes a cold dry pure miller b look. On a more general pattern note, stuff is coming into clarity a bit better now. There is a relax and that opens the door next week to a threat, but its low probability on the coastal plain due to a still crappy airmass. But after the blocking relax all guidance suggests it does not break down but reloads centered more towards Baffin to Greenland next time. This current round was actually centered too far south for us to be ideal for a big storm amplifying up the coast. It is incredibly encouraging imo that even during the relaxation period the AO/NAO remain firmly negative and the next attempt by the TPV to consolidate is squashed like a bug and we tank again. The look day 10-15 is frankly EXCELLENT across all guidance now. That look with blocking centered from central Baffin to Greenland with a displaced TPV over Quebec is freaking awesome for us. Its the rare combination of cold and promotes a good storm track. If that is where this is heading I would be incredibly shocked if we don't get significant snow in the January 15-30 period. I think one of the problems is we have become so strict and conservative about starting specific storm threads. We used to have a thread for a storm once it came into medium range but we decided the threads were why our storm threats died so now no one wants to start a storm thread until its like right on top of us and so for days we get medium range specific storm discussion in the long range thread. I am ok either way. I can multi-task in this thread. But imo we should either go back to starting specific threat threads once a discreet event enters medium range and forget this silly superstitious stuff...or if everyone is so convinced that will kill storms and its too annoying to start a new thread each time have a designated medium range thread to discuss stuff in the day 3-6 range.

Looks like a typical climo storm. 2-4” along 95 before change over. 4-8 NW of the fall line

Gefs after day 10 really goes bonkers with the NAO block but further north in a better location and this time wants to displace a TPV lobe near Hudson Bay! That’s a nice look. Cold and stormy.