psuhoffman

So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again? You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some.

I’ve never seen a closed contour Rex block on the day 15 EPS before.

But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some.

I wasn’t trying to be that specific...the point was if this whole period of blocking which is still escalating and looks to feature a -epo -NAO ridge bridge coming up...produces nothing! That pattern really begins to set in around the 18th and extends out past where we can see but it won’t last forever. But it looks very likely it extends into early Feb at the least. We’re talking about a great pattern hitting during our best snow climo period. So if we make it to like Feb 7 and it’s breaking down and we have nothing to show for it...let me be clear I doubt that. We could even get multiple warning level hits in that look with some luck. Or maybe we don’t get lucky but even in that case we should get some snow somewhere from a pattern like that this time of year.

Kidding not kidding...I’m not saying we should get a HECS...but if we get through the next 3 weeks with no snow somethings really wrong

If we waste that, it’s obvious we have offended and we need to sacrifice this whole sub in the panic room to appease the gods

The ridge goes east all the way to Greenland. You want it to extend to the moon maybe? Or did you mean south?

Don’t spend it all in one place

We need to fast forward about 8 days. Awful boring week ahead. Nothing within 10 days Shame that isn’t going to happen because that 1046 high blasting down the plains with a block to the northeast probably means we keep that snow around a long time lol.

Were going to run out of time. And 6z will show a clipper instead No we actually get a hit but only takes until the last frame lol That is kinda classic how this kind of pattern would play out though. We tend to remember the hits years later but I recall a LOT of weeks of frustration during blocks BEFORE the hit the last several blocking patterns we had in 2018/2016/2011. Even 2010 we had some long dead zones even though the blocking ran the table the whole winter. You remember, you even brought it up yesterday, how you were throwing a fit during January because of that.

OMFG

Where the heck is the roadblock/bottle neck that blocking is suppose to give us The flow is incredibly blocked. With that pac we would be ridging out otherwise. A 50/50 gets stuck for a week! But the block can’t slow down the pac jet or make all the SWs it ejects into the US disappear. It can buckle the flow to the north and force the jet south but it’s still a problem if there are 500 SWs flying around competing for energy

Incoming at 360. Let’s see how it screws this up. What’s more painful if it shreds if if the fun ends one panel before showing a HECS lol

Yes

@Ji you’re off your game. You missed this from the 18z para. Somehow this misses us. Hits the confluence from the blocking end shreds at our doorstep.

We need the flow to slow down. It’s that simple. It’s shredding everything. All the SWs flying across are ripping each other apart instead of phasing.

Yea except it’s a lot easier to get that crazy qpf in March with the added temp gradients fueling. Of course with warming that’s why we see more crazy qpf storms mid winter lately so maybe we eventually see something like that. If it can happen i along the PA NY border...they get a TON of snow but we are actually in a better spot for big totals from a coastal storm.

I was just cold enough to stay all snow and got 14” so likely something like that lol. I had some pretty low ratios that first day and the mix got really close so a month earlier I probably would have got 18-20” from that just from better ratios. ETA: just checked I had 1.6 qpf. That’s horrible ratios for here...that definitely would have been a 20” storm here had it been a little colder.

March 1960 was another example of a post SSW cold enso poleward Pac ridge blocking pattern where a western trough elongated east and that lead to one of the snowiest months in mid Atlantic history. In March no less. If the block is firm enough to suppress the SE ridge it’s a very good pattern.

The block has erected quite the cold signature

That profile is very 2014. Makes sense. The pac ridge was further east in 2014 with some ridging in the AO domain but not much NAO. This year if that projected pattern comes to pass the EPO is further west but with more NAO blocking. Those differences offset each other and you end up with a similar pattern.

The GEFS really did lead the way wrt the pattern progression....it started going hog with the blocking the last few days...really ramped it up at 6z and everything else fell in line with it today.

First I am totally fine with constructive criticism! This is an open forum and anyone is free to challenge and disagree with anything I say and hopefully everyone knows that. But second there is a WHY that matters behind the what (no precip). What I’ve suspected and been saying and HM just confirmed is that one of the big problems we’ve had getting any of the southern waves to amplify in this split flow is the lack of cold. I know they seems counterintuitive but cold doesn’t suppress the flow does. Now there is a correlation because a colder airmass will press the baroclinic zone (tighter temperature gradient between warm/cold) south and the suppressive flow of the NS will likely be further south. But without enough cold there wasn’t enough temperature gradient to fuel the storms. I don’t want to start an atmospheric physics class so I’ll grossly simplify this but it’s that temperature gradient (baroclinicity) that fuels our mid latitude storms. Without cold there is less gradient and less potential energy for storms. Result= weak POS systems along the weak thermal boundary in the south that don’t amplify and come north. The systems that did come north were weak and during periods of ridging when the weak temp boundary came north. But even then they were too weak to initiate what we needed. That perfect track storm back around New Years could have worked if it amplified more. But it was pathetic so we got light rain (talking about the second wave) . Had there been more cold in this pattern the results likely would have been less dry. Looking ahead with a more canonical Nina look in the pac we don’t want too much cold and suppression. But that -NAO -pna -epo look is intriguing. The level of blocking being shown now would suppress the SE ridge but the -pna would create a SW to NE flow towards us. That’s potentially a fun pattern.

No that look is great. If that’s what Jan 21 actually looks like I suspect end of Jan early Feb produces. But lots of “if” there.