psuhoffman

If his default is 3” I can understand his frustration.

We’ve had a lot of runs less then 3. Since they upgraded the GEFS it’s snow maps have been less stupid skewed high by outliers. But also that’s a 10 day mean not 16. So you’re exaggerating and comparing a 10 day to a typical 16 day map. BTW the euro wasn’t that far from a better solution. we need 1 and 2 to phase. Instead they don’t and flatten each other out. We need 3 to be a couple hundred miles east...or not there at all..timing up a wave rotating down a trapped 50/50 at day 8 is hard. It’s not out of the question. I don’t care about details past about 150 because they change run to run a lot. 150 in I want to see it closer because the adjustments seem to be more incremental once inside about that range.

I wouldn’t mind getting the -pna a bit further south out west. A more SE to NE gradient would help. So long as the blocking is ape like that we will need to get lucky we timing up a wave and phasing it to buckle the flow or getting a temporary weakness in the flow...But the blocking will relax eventually and as that happens with a very cold airmass likely rooted in the US...that’s when things could get more interesting.

Gefs was a great run. Very cold. Blocking keeps holding stronger and longer..likely runs into Feb now. For those that want to pull hints from clown maps...the day 6-16 snow mean has a max over VA. The snow belt regions will always have a max from upslope and lake effect but otherwise the max snow axis runs just to our south. That’s a good signal. Ji will be along to take a dump on it in 3...2...1...

Oh the storm it didn’t even have last run misses us this run. Oh no

Too much blocking lol

obviously the blocking shows better at earlier times but that’s crazy for day 15 and all the smoothing at that range.

The last 2 runs that system was a hit and a miss to the south. Now it is a very close miss north. At that range it’s going to bounce around because very minor details that can’t possibly be pinned down at 300 hours will determine if the storm snows on PA or MD or VA or NC. And some don’t want to hear this but the pattern from the general hemispheric longwave pattern we can see hints of at that range is the same for all those solutions. We’re not geographically far enough apart to see the discreet differences between a PA and a VA snowstorm at that range. A good pattern gets us in the game that’s all. The real key is if this pattern lingers for 2-3 weeks we should get a hit out of the 4-5 waves that would come during that time.

Of course not....we should use the pressure difference between DC and Pittsburg to extrapolate the pattern for the next 3 weeks!!!

I don’t remember him saying anything. Or are you using what someone else said against him?

You are too much

Yes...that’s why we want a retrograding block into the western NAO domain which is what we look to get. Early on when it’s still east based it’s not as helpful.

So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again? You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some.

I’ve never seen a closed contour Rex block on the day 15 EPS before.

But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some.

I wasn’t trying to be that specific...the point was if this whole period of blocking which is still escalating and looks to feature a -epo -NAO ridge bridge coming up...produces nothing! That pattern really begins to set in around the 18th and extends out past where we can see but it won’t last forever. But it looks very likely it extends into early Feb at the least. We’re talking about a great pattern hitting during our best snow climo period. So if we make it to like Feb 7 and it’s breaking down and we have nothing to show for it...let me be clear I doubt that. We could even get multiple warning level hits in that look with some luck. Or maybe we don’t get lucky but even in that case we should get some snow somewhere from a pattern like that this time of year.

Kidding not kidding...I’m not saying we should get a HECS...but if we get through the next 3 weeks with no snow somethings really wrong

If we waste that, it’s obvious we have offended and we need to sacrifice this whole sub in the panic room to appease the gods

The ridge goes east all the way to Greenland. You want it to extend to the moon maybe? Or did you mean south?

Don’t spend it all in one place

We need to fast forward about 8 days. Awful boring week ahead. Nothing within 10 days Shame that isn’t going to happen because that 1046 high blasting down the plains with a block to the northeast probably means we keep that snow around a long time lol.

Were going to run out of time. And 6z will show a clipper instead No we actually get a hit but only takes until the last frame lol That is kinda classic how this kind of pattern would play out though. We tend to remember the hits years later but I recall a LOT of weeks of frustration during blocks BEFORE the hit the last several blocking patterns we had in 2018/2016/2011. Even 2010 we had some long dead zones even though the blocking ran the table the whole winter. You remember, you even brought it up yesterday, how you were throwing a fit during January because of that.

OMFG

Where the heck is the roadblock/bottle neck that blocking is suppose to give us The flow is incredibly blocked. With that pac we would be ridging out otherwise. A 50/50 gets stuck for a week! But the block can’t slow down the pac jet or make all the SWs it ejects into the US disappear. It can buckle the flow to the north and force the jet south but it’s still a problem if there are 500 SWs flying around competing for energy

Incoming at 360. Let’s see how it screws this up. What’s more painful if it shreds if if the fun ends one panel before showing a HECS lol