psuhoffman

1. The low moves up west of the apps then transfers to eastern NC 2. there is a banana high over the top 3. read my post about the dry air

It’s way too soon to be worried about this...but wanted to point something out that can be useful when we are closer to an event. There are lots of variables but one factor that helped us survive a primary track to our west was this. As the system approaches this looks precarious at a glance. The mid level boundary isn’t that far to our SW. But look at the 850 temps to our south and southwest. 1-2 c mostly. Now look at the humidity. that whole area is bone dry. All that air will advect north ahead of the low. As it saturates and lifts north it will be plenty cold enough. The actual boundary of air that wouldn’t support snow that would have to advect north is much further south.

There is a lot of dry air that will cool as it saturates to our south (will advect north ahead of the low). We should be ok for at least a thump.

This next cold shot is different because the epo finally goes negative and injects some arctic air. Guidance continually tried to cool the N American profile at range and in defense that’s what historically SHOULD happen this time of year. Additionally even when the pattern in the pacific reverses and the coldest air shifts to N Amer it’s pathetic. Frankly the only place that seems to sustain truly arctic cold air masses lately regardless of the pattern is Siberia.

I agree that’s greedy but I didn’t set the premise or the ratios @Ji did. A 50” winter for me is actually less above normal then a 20” winter is in DC! A 20” DC winter is equivalent to a 57” winter here. ETA: but if we aren’t going to adjust for local climo then I’m a hard no. In the last 20 years only 3 were worse then 20” so I’d take my chances lol

Cmc ensembles target central VA for the day 9 threat.

I thought we stopped with the storm name thing. Besides I’m sure some high school kid from Delaware on Twitter called it back in June.

Makes total sense now

The mean to our north is skewed high by a camp of members that really bomb the storm and crush just to our northeast. Kind of a miller b evolution but a hybrid not a total screw job here. But there is a camp that’s still somewhat suppressed and targets just to our south. That’s not a bad spot to be at this range.

Something is definitely broken

The block retrogrades a bit too far west this run which allows the 50/50 to escape and too much ridging. That’s part of why the storm gains so much latitude before the jump. Ggem looks similar at the surface but for a completely different reason. The blocking stays further east but links up with the mid latitude ridge which causes a cutter. Both still get us some frozen despite a west track. The big takeaway is the American globals finally picked up on a healthy wave ejecting there.

This run the NS wave (1) came in behind the southern wave (2) and phased. Want this to become a monster for us just need that NS to dig a bit more. Once they phase the upper feature tracks east under the block but that happens just north of our latitude.

6z gfs wasn’t that bad. Speed the NS up or slow it down and it was close to a better solution. This NS wave(1) which keeps changing every run suppressed the flow in front. Get it out of the way and the next one (3) can dig in. Slow it and get it behind the southern wave (2) and it would phase. Just need that to adjust. It actually ejected a healthy wave that run.

It’s been positive and that did us no good...a -pna can work if other factors line up. There are also signs the ridge will retrograde into the SW eventually.

The first flex of the NAO failed. That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed?

I still think the waves the 24-30 have potential. But it’s also true we do better as blocking relaxes and we may be anxious and so jumping the gun. We might need to wait for the flow to relax.

Cmc ensemble doesn’t agree with suppressed either. Actually more rain then suppressed members.

It never does but the op is blowing it way Ensemble verification is better at that range. But I want to see this show up in op runs soon

Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw

372...we flip to rain by 384

That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west. The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east.

Phasing wasn't even close on gfs It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off.

That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now

There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS