psuhoffman

We might need to wait for that western trough to retrograde a bit more to allow that ridge to shift west so something can dig more into the eastern US.

It’s not going to do it this run but this would be a candidate

@stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase.

Yea it’s a good setup for a snow in the Deep South. Way way way too much suppression for here. We need the boundary to be relaxing not pressing as a wave approaches.

First wave going to be a Deep South snow it looks like lol

That’s still not even a fair comp since I average close to 40” and DC about 14”. A better comp for me would be 2 25” storms a year. In which case hell yes so long as I didn’t know they were coming. That would ruin most of the fun.

This is funny coming from the guy who could get 10 10” storms a year end still complain.

I'm not drunk enough for this

at least he is letting it out in a "dead" thread...

All the long range guidance has consistently tried to break down the -NAM state around day 20 all cold season since if flipped late November. Sometimes it makes it as close as about day 15 then suddenly gets pushed back out to day 20-25 again. It will eventually flip but I see no signs its eminent yet.

Can we get some angel choir music???

@Ji check out the para. Perfect wave incoming and just dies literally on out doorstep.

What did you get March 17?

Good to know. My records (14”) is likely wrong because I was at work that day and had an evening meeting and got home very late. By then the snowfall from the first day had ended and temps warmed in the dry slot and I’m sure compaction had set in. My peak depth was also about 12” the second day.

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from.

You let me know when that “some point” comes. @Ji wants to know.

There are lots of reasons that initial wave around the 22 after the block establishes is the lowest probability. The NS hasn’t been suppressed yet. So it’s very likely the NS wave runs to our north. Without any interaction it’s likely the southern feature is weak and suppressed. Additionally and related the cold is just starting to press. It’s really hard to get something to amplify as the boundary is pressing south. Not impossible but this is why we score way more often after blocking and cold is established. Way easier to get a southern wave to amplify as cold retreats some.

That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts.

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 1996: high bar...nuff said March 1999: several storms January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever! Feb 2006: 1 MECS Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck

Problem is we thought we signed up for a sprint and it turned out to be marathon. But I did not run 26 miles just to lay down a couple hundred yards from the finish line.

Yes...honestly it is. Some were hopeful the wave around the 22nd would become a legit threat but that was always a long shot Imo. The waves after that always looked better wrt the progression. The first discreet wave in that period looks to be around the 24/25 and it’s been stuck there. It has slowed some and looks more like the 25 v the 24 over the last few days but it’s the same wave the guidance is just doing what it typically does in blocking regimes and slowing the waves as we get closer. I think from long range Jan 22 2016 looked like closer to the 20th.

12z EPS is a thing of beauty day 10-15! 2 clear strong signals and setting up another just after day 15. The potential is not a long range figment. It’s a result of the pattern the front 10 days simply progressing. This (day 1-10 mean) leads to the threats day 10-15 once cold gets into the pattern. This is a STRONG signal for these leads on an ensemble. day 10/11 Day 13/14 this is more washed out due to timing differences at that range. The pattern is still ripe and setting up another wave at day 15. 24 hours later I see nothing that would make me adjust what I said yesterday wrt how this pattern is likely to progress.

It was 11 yesterday lol. Honestly though that period between the 24-30 looks really good. I was never invested in the 22. Too many flaws. But if we start to see degradation to the look from the possibly 2/3 waves in the 24-30 time period then I will be more frustrated. That’s been my target and when the progression made sense for a while I’m sticking too it.