psuhoffman

Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity.

Is this the after meds Ji?

It snows some from a storm that has a primary get to Minnesota with no true cold in front. That’s impressive. But a block isn’t a magic cure all. It can only work with the airmass under it and the upstream flow has an effect. In this case both those other factors are wrong. There is a huge trough out west and no cold in the east so up pops a huge SE ridge. Plus the block is just getting into prime position. This is why I after that wave would be better. Cold should bleed east more once there actually is cold in N America again and the block will grow in influence as it retrogrades.

With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south. I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either.

It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8.

We have a -AO. We have an east based -NAO ridge before that. The Rex block doesn’t form and retrograde to a spot that can offset the pacific until day 7

Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts.

Hope it’s not too presumptuous of me but bringing this over from the old thread...

There is no cold in the pattern initially. The response to the EPO going up will initially be to dump the trough and cold into the west. Think wave dynamics. See saw. If there is no cold in front of that...what’s the response in the east going to be? I can totally see a ridge popping initially. Could the block fight it off...maybe. But the thing is the block effects things AFTER not before. There is a lag. Loop the n hemisphere h5 progression on the gfs. The block is just getting into a truly favorable location around day 7. By then the damage is done. The trough is dumping west and the ridge is going up because the block wasn’t there a few days earlier to effect the flow yet! If there was more cold in front and the blocking was already established we would see a more broad elongated trough but without..the trough/ridge makes sense. Now..again the blocking could suppress the track enough. I’m not tossing the day 6-10 period. But this was why I said yesterday AFTER that is when I think the progression favors us more. Once the Rex block retrogrades west of Greenland it will start to exert itself on the flow. The cold out west will bleed east under the block. That trough will be forced to spread and broaden. And frankly it’s an odd combo that has huge upside. That block location in a different pac would actually be way too suppressive. That’s a crazy southwest NAO Rex block with big 50/50 vortex signature and a displaced TPV under it. That could just be super cold/dry. But the western trough will try to cut storms west of us. But at some point as more cold bleeds east and the block retrogrades a “oh no you dont” wall will go up and a storm coming from the SW with gulf moisture trying to cut will be blocked and forced under. And those our “fun”. That’s still how I see this potentially playing out. But the balance between cold west/east and block location won’t be perfect for that until closer to the end of January according to the current progression and timing.

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!! We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it! So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing.

Just for fun...the #1 day 11 CPC analog is mid January 1966, the #2 is late January 1979. Both dates immediately proceeded 2 of our best snow blitzes (until 2010 of course) in history. Of course some of the other dates in the analog set are not as friendly...but almost all produced at least SOME snow. But the top 2 certainly shows there is big upside potential to this look.

I didn't say its not possible...but one of the reasons it resulted in that was that the NAO block retrograded so far SW that it blocked the western trough from "sliding under" and progressing east...so it dug in and pumped the heights even more...add in that the high latitude ridge was so far south...in southern Canada...and a link up was natural. Yes that could happen...and would happen if the block really does retrograde to south of Hudson Bay...but I find that a little extreme. It's more likely the block doesn't retrograde that far SW, that is extremely rare.

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us. Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.

@Ji the December setup wasn’t bad. Rex block north of AK. Ridging extending into Greenland. 50/50. Nice trough in the MS valley. We’ve snowed in much worse.

Yea but that storm happened before the pattern got amazing and it was waAY before peak climo That was a pretty good pattern mid December that week.

That was a rare historic storm. Not here but it out down 40” in places and a huge area of 10”+. Your bar is ridiculous

@stormtracker para remarkably similar to op gfs but adjusted south...

I’ll take crazy too much blocking solutions at that range. Doubtful it verifies. You back the blocking off some to allow the trough out west to progress east and that was a big solution

That wave on the CMC on the 22nd isn’t the one the GFS amplifies. It gets squashed. The cmc then suppressed the wave on the 24 that the GFS gives places north of DC snow. The wave on the 22 has no real chance if the trough splits our west. The airmass isn’t cold enough yet.

Read my last post to Ji. Block stops the whole trough from progressing. The system cuts west of it, occludes and dies.

The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking This run the block actually retrogrades so far SW (into central Canada) that it blocks the trough in the west from progressing east at all. So it ends up a crazy solution. A little less extreme and that system comes east under the block instead of cutting up west of it then occluding.

That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out...

Here comes the energy for the “big” threat. It’s slower this run. But fits the progression

@Ji 2 ways to look at this... 1. Models are all over which does decrease confidence in a specific solution. Not that there should be any at this range. 2. The gfs and euro take radically different progressions and both end up snowing on you. That is indicative of the potential this blocking regime creates.

Didn't that use to be the euro bias,? Yes