psuhoffman

@Ji check out the para. Perfect wave incoming and just dies literally on out doorstep.

What did you get March 17?

Good to know. My records (14”) is likely wrong because I was at work that day and had an evening meeting and got home very late. By then the snowfall from the first day had ended and temps warmed in the dry slot and I’m sure compaction had set in. My peak depth was also about 12” the second day.

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from.

You let me know when that “some point” comes. @Ji wants to know.

There are lots of reasons that initial wave around the 22 after the block establishes is the lowest probability. The NS hasn’t been suppressed yet. So it’s very likely the NS wave runs to our north. Without any interaction it’s likely the southern feature is weak and suppressed. Additionally and related the cold is just starting to press. It’s really hard to get something to amplify as the boundary is pressing south. Not impossible but this is why we score way more often after blocking and cold is established. Way easier to get a southern wave to amplify as cold retreats some.

That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts.

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 1996: high bar...nuff said March 1999: several storms January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever! Feb 2006: 1 MECS Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck

Problem is we thought we signed up for a sprint and it turned out to be marathon. But I did not run 26 miles just to lay down a couple hundred yards from the finish line.

Yes...honestly it is. Some were hopeful the wave around the 22nd would become a legit threat but that was always a long shot Imo. The waves after that always looked better wrt the progression. The first discreet wave in that period looks to be around the 24/25 and it’s been stuck there. It has slowed some and looks more like the 25 v the 24 over the last few days but it’s the same wave the guidance is just doing what it typically does in blocking regimes and slowing the waves as we get closer. I think from long range Jan 22 2016 looked like closer to the 20th.

12z EPS is a thing of beauty day 10-15! 2 clear strong signals and setting up another just after day 15. The potential is not a long range figment. It’s a result of the pattern the front 10 days simply progressing. This (day 1-10 mean) leads to the threats day 10-15 once cold gets into the pattern. This is a STRONG signal for these leads on an ensemble. day 10/11 Day 13/14 this is more washed out due to timing differences at that range. The pattern is still ripe and setting up another wave at day 15. 24 hours later I see nothing that would make me adjust what I said yesterday wrt how this pattern is likely to progress.

It was 11 yesterday lol. Honestly though that period between the 24-30 looks really good. I was never invested in the 22. Too many flaws. But if we start to see degradation to the look from the possibly 2/3 waves in the 24-30 time period then I will be more frustrated. That’s been my target and when the progression made sense for a while I’m sticking too it.

Not kidding...if this ^ doesn’t work...it’s really time to just accept our fate and give up.

Lack of cold means less thermal gradient which means less baroclinic instability or potential energy for storms. What mechanism do waves have to amplify with no boundary? Let’s see what happens with a true tight baroclinic zone for waves to work with.

I will try to be discreet about how I use discrete

@frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!! It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh By day 10 day 15 we have to let this play out. We have not had a pattern with cold available yet.

@Ji the 12z gefs has the best signal for a discreet period (Jan 25-29) that we’ve seen since Dec.

But the wave around the 22nd was a long shot yesterday too. You know that. You’ve pointed out the euro was totally on its own and we knew it would cave. So why the meltdown when exactly what we expected happens? The better threats were always AFTER that. What changed today v yesterday?

Para has a snowstorm day 11. Did I miss something? Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance. So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th. Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that. We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down. Maybe I missed the memo.

The snow mean day 8-16 looks good but most members get there by 1 hit out of the 3 or so waves in that period. Today’s GFS has 1 hit from the 3rd. Yesterday it had a hit from the second. You are focused on the first wave only.

FWIW I am totally ok with where the threat around the 24th is on guidance right now.

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years! So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

two things can be true...Your point is totally correct. But his general pattern comparison is true also...January 2010 didn't do much for many despite good blocking throughout. And since the little bit of snow we got before the Jan 30 storm was VERY marginal...we could make the argument this January is a 2021 adjusted version of 2010. It's not a perfect comp but I think both of you are making true statements.

True but.... one of those events was a clipper, and the other 2 were highly marginal temp events. Clippers are increasingly rare lately. The enhanced pac jet likely has a part in that. Clippers were often pretty discreet waves to begin with...barely amplified enough to produce. The raging pac jet is making it difficult for even pretty major NS features to amplify and phase...let along those discreet waves. I think there is some linkage there. Besides a clipper is a pretty random fluke thing anyways. And we can debate how much of this is a residual effect after the 2016 super nino (although you would think that would have worn off by now especially after 2 cold enso years following it) or how much might be a more permanent issue (no I don't want to start a climate civil war here) but the fact is the base state of north america has been a TORCH since 2016 and marginal events from 10 years ago probably would just be cold rain now. We have all observed the dearth of "minor snow events" lately and there is a really simply logical reason...most of those were marginal to begin with...so what happens if you add a few degrees to those "marginal 10/20 years ago" events? I'll tell you..exactly what we saw...perfect track cold rain. So that storm around New Years where you got some freezing rain...and the one right after where we had a perfect track system and got cold rain...those were the minor marginal events 10/20 years ago. But that doesn't mean we cant snow. But something that BARELY worked 10 years ago likely isn't going to now. So there could be some pattern progression similarities...but you have to adjust for today's base state (temporary or permanent not having that discussion).