psuhoffman

A compromise between the euro and gfs camps from a day ago. It’s coming out in pieces but they are spaced tighter then the euro had. Problem is if we don’t get enough separation between the waves it won’t work. It’s close.

I’ve thought about this and I think it would be more helpful if past day 6 only ran once a day but that one run was a super ensemble that incorporated the initializations of all 4 interim runs to account for possible errors with initialization. One more accurate update a day would be more helpful then a bunch of mini ones. And cause us way less mental anguish. A Day 7+ Forecast doesn’t need to be updated more then once a day anyways.

Yea but instead of bringing the NS across ahead it stalls it out west and pumps the ridge anyways on top of the unphased southern wave. Still not the progression we want. But I suppose a baby step towards a better idea.

Well oddly enough the eps isn’t that bad. It does have a camp that trended north. But there is also a camp of good hits still and the snow mean increased slightly from 12z. And the signal for the day 11 threat I’ve liked got better. The pattern dies degrade by day 15 though but it’s not awful. The -NAO holds but we need the western trough to either back off or shift its. It’s kind of in the worst spot and offsetting the NAO by day 15.

I’m not going to over react to one run but the trend the last 24 hours has been discouraging. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok.

If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east.

Yup. It connects the ridge and that’s ballgame.

At 12z cmc was the only op showing that. But ensembles had it and now the para at 18 and 0z. But if I said “wait it’s the next wave” earlier some would have had a fit so I just kept my mouth shut.

Para fringes me so it must be right

Yea but that was bone dry remember. We needed in between lol. I wouldn’t freak over a day 13 op run. If the ensembles go that way over the next couple days then yea....it’s going to depend on that ridge link up. If the gfs is right about a complete link of the mid and high latitude ridges like that it’s game over. But nothing else shows that and the gefs is skeptical of that progression.

Cmc isn’t that bad Imo. It’s still 9 days away (especially if it’s the trailing wave). Cmc doesn’t have enough separation between waves to work. But it’s close. That wouldn’t take much adjustment. It’s not like the gfs that wants to drive a ridge to the North Pole and nuke the whole pattern!

@Ji what’s sad is that if someone just sneezes while facing north a ridge pops to the Arctic circle these days regardless of the pattern. Any freaking excuse and warmth wants to surge north.

A lot of the good ensembles in the Eps and gefs have that progression. That might be the best way here if that ridge is going to pump like that. A weak wave to knock it down then something behind. We need the trough to eject pieces to prevent the ridge from going ape.

What did you do with Ji?????

Honestly from a pattern progression the cmc was always in the gfs camp. The op pumped the ridge same way but less extreme buy it also washed out that first wave. No one pointed out the snowstorm the cmc showed was actually from the NEXT wave and was a days later lol. And for that progression to work required the first lead wave to wash out and it was the only model showing that lol. But the cmc ensembles were fully in the gfs camp without that wonky split wave idea. I didn’t want to kill the mood by pointing that out though.

I’m waiting for the punch line

The GFS pumps the ridge so far north the first wave cuts so severely it might destroy the setup for the next behind it. It gets trapped so far NW we get no 50/50 and enough ridging for the next wave to possibly cut also. Lol.

I’ll say a prayer for you

A little similar to some of the 1994 ice storms wrt pattern there. But I’m not getting into that. I don’t like ice. Could care less ice v rain unless there is snowcover to preserve.

And gfs looks exactly like it... For reference this is what the euro looks like at about the same time... It’s a huge difference but really due to a rather subtle difference that has huge impacts on the pattern. The euro ejects the western trough in pieces and such never pumps the ridge. The gfs and Icon does not and pumps the ridge. Looking across ensemble members that’s a consistent theme between good v bad members on both gefs and eps. We need the western trough to eject pieces east to knock down the ridge. Otherwise it pumps a ridge that links up with the NAO “block” and its game over

Icon did not get us off to a glorious start. It says “what block? Why don’t I just blast a ridge from Mexico to Greenland instead.” Before anyone bothers to look...It’s raining in Green Bay there.

I was at that game. 1993. He beat the Eagles at the Vet. If I recall we had like a 1 point lead and then the dolphins got a late FG to win.

I don’t want to start a war with anyone without knowing the whole story, especially over something this petty...but here is my take... Using 12z EPS but GEFS isn’t much different Day 1 looks like an epo ridge with effective flow into our source regions to me... Day 5 no complaints there... day 8!!!! still there...keep in mind signals get muted that far out in range. After that the pacific ridge retrogrades and that Pac NW trough retrogrades with it into the EPO domain flipping it around day 9/10. A few days ago when it was still way out at like day 14-16 guidance hinted the epo ridge might linger a few days longer but saying because it lasted 7-8 days instead of 10-11 based on a day 15 prog seems overly petty to me. It also seems inconsequential to the threat window days 8-15 that I’m looking at. Because look what that sets up day 12 yes the epo flips...but AFTER a solid week of flow straight out of the Arctic into our source regions. I’m sorry but that’s not good enough? But also that’s not a bad look there. That isn’t a vortex of doom in the N pac just a typical trough. And we have a block still in eastern Canada and a 50/50 low trapped to our northeast so our flow will be out of the north. That area had a solid week of cross polar flow to seed cold. And look where that’s being fed with there. Yes the flow traverses the extreme north Pac after coming off Siberia and through the Bering Sea. Not exactly tropical in origin. And the true mid latitude maritime pac air is directed into the southwest and is cut off by the northwest flow across the US. That’s a good look to get something to amplify into the east and it should be plenty cold enough given the antecedent setup. Now ideally I’d like that ridge to pull back a little more. It’s tight. With a block like that though sometimes something could dig in pretty sharp. But my fear there would be something miller bs us because it amplifies too far northeast. But that has nothing to do with the EPO. And before we worry about that it’s 12 days away..I promise the ridge axis will shift slightly. If it adjusts west just a bit we’re golden. So let’s see. But back to the EPO issue yes the northern stream would pick up some maritime influence from its brief traverse over the gulf of AK but if that is enough to totally wreck our source region immediately after seeding it with arctic air for 7 straight days...and I am not exxagersting here...we should close up shop and pack it in. Seriously what do we need a 30 day straight off Siberia flow? Or a solar storm that infuses stratospheric air straight to the ground like day after tomorrow??? What are we looking for here??? Now if we’re looking way way out...if the NAO flips positive and that trough stays near AK then yea we will be in trouble. But now we’re looking way out and adding some ifs and buts. Maybe they are doing that. I don’t know. But imo if the next 2 weeks fail it’s not because the epo broke down in 7 days instead of 10.

This hand is being over played imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16. That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy. If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath.