psuhoffman

It over amplifies the wave and rides it just a bit too far north. Big snowstorm for central/northern PA.

Geps improved also but has a shotgun of everything under the sun as well. Hitting the 28/29 hardest.

The gefs is a shotgun of everything. They don’t support the op really but neither do they support any one solution. I count 11 members with a weak lead wave and stronger second wave like the euro. Some miss south. Some nice hits. A couple north. Then some have a stringer lead wave but are colder and snow with that wave. There are some members like the op too. For the 3rd wave that the cmc bombs they have that wave but are all over. Some hits. Some cutters. Largest camp with that is suppressed just south of us. The gefs is obviously not able to handle all the interaction between waves. They are a mess of every possible outcome. ETA: through day 11 a definite improvement though wrt number of hits and mean snowfall over 18z and 12z.

Next week has very good potential. And I still think the best window for something to amplify along the east coast is around the 28/29. But the tight spacing with all these waves makes this complicated and will wreak havoc with the guidance run to run. This isn’t a simple blocking setup with one juiced up stj wave slowly sliding across in a split flow. This involves several waves and how they interact. The first thing to root for us a weaker lead NS wave. The more that amps the more complicated the next wave becomes. If that NS wave gets out of the way the nest case scenario would be the next 2 waves both hit and without much separation between the two it could snow for most of 3 days from that solution.

You mean other then when it kept giving us 2 feet of snow long after every other model shifted north in December ?

I would never trust any one model if it’s on an island. I don’t consider this to be that. The cmc progression has support from the EPS. Maybe the 974 bomb is overdone but the general progression isn’t without support. But if I could only look at the gfs and cmc and had to judge based on that alone honestly CMC right now. It’s been better. Neither is perfect. CMC was way better then the GFS with the Dec storm. It caught the north shift a lot sooner. It also had that crazy trowel deform that gave some places 40” from like 4 days out. That’s impressive.

Ok you want to find excuses to be miserable or just exhale a sigh of relief if we finally get a flush hit and be happy? Btw you’re totally right. But we can’t ignore the really dreadfully awful pacific base state either. And we did (you and I) get a decent snow wrt out respective climo in Dec. If we get a couple more snows by the end of winter maybe that’s as good as we can expect given it’s a Nina in a really awful pac base state.

No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year.

The euro has been flirting close to that idea for a while and just missing the final phase by a thread. But it’s been in the ensembles. Some crazy members in there. It’s not the majority but enough evidence for me to stick to my call.

Just let this go the way the pattern says it should one freaking time and let’s call it a winter. This was never supposed to be a good year. Yea it’s frustrating to underperform a -AO winter. But if we can just get one big one...end the drought then relax and whatever else comes after is gravy.

BLUE....BLUE BLUE BLUE

I hate to pull a JB but I’m going too...the progression I went with was made before the ops showed this at the surface and was based on what I felt was the most likely surface result given the longwave pattern. Then some runs started showing exactly that. So long as there is still some support I’m sticking to it. It still makes sense.

Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th.

Ok that was scary

The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated.

That’s still too far out to worry about what an op run says. We’re getting to the range where it’s time to take them more seriously for the first wave though.

Still early but I don’t like some of the signs at 120 on the cmc either. More ridging. Stronger NS lead wave. Not as bad as the gfs but a step towards that look v the euro and previous cmc.

This war between the cmc/euro v gfs can’t go on too much longer because the major differences wrt to how they handle the the ridge which leads to the different solutions is evident by only about 100 hours. One side has to cave soon.

Gfs doubled down on being NS dominant.

God forbid we ever get 2 good runs in a row The gfs (and icon) hasn’t looked good ever. So long as other guidance doesn’t move towards that solution.

Very early but gfs is pumping more ridge already at 120. That doesn’t help.

If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight???

You still got the bus???

Yes but the air masses have not had enough depth to the cold. It’s one thing to be chilly with a north wind during suppressive flow. It’s another for the cold to have enough depth to remain cold enough during the ridging and southerly flow you get ahead of any amplifying system.

Euro hinting at a 3rd weakening of the PV and possible wind reversal early February. If so we can probably discount a NAM state flip this season.