psuhoffman

Not “worried” but there has been a definite slight shift southeast on guidance so far tonight. That’s not what the northwest crew from Winchester to Mappy wanted to see. But it was minor and could be noise. 6z could easily resume the NW trend we saw the last 48 hours.

I think we will find out at 12z if this will do the typical jump NW at the last minute or if 0z was a warning for our area. I tend to think this adjusts north some tomorrow but the one inhibiting factor is it’s trucking so fast. If it is late amping up by just a couple hours it’s a problem when the whole system is flying by in 6 hours.

Well the NSSL is the best for me so I’m hugging it lol

The track adjusted west but qpf was lower across guidance so far 0z. Partially due to the storm moving even faster. In and out too fast.

Icon FULL TUCK lol

What do you know about the HRW? I’m not familiar with it.

Perfect placement for the max stripe on the ARW

Rgem kinda blah for places NW of 95. Similar to last run.

Full tuck!!!

It is less amplified...but it is also slower so it is hard to compare since the wave is amplifying more later across guidance.

Still less amplified through 28

NAM coming in less amplified so far in the plains at 17 hours

Casual

Hopefully it went too far NW

Icon knows what's up

I'm confused why you still have that avatar. BTW you from Dallas or you just the kind of person who decides they want to root for the team everyone around them hates?

Definitely true for the majority of the area. One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios. With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios. 15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010). Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not.

I think the time frames we have been using are great...inside 72 hours we tend to move something to its own thread (short range). Day 3-7 is medium range...past 7 is long range stuff...I didn't think we should change that at all...but the way the 3 threads got named at a glance they all look the same with the 7's thing... that's all.

NAO tanks again towards day 15 lol.

Nice increase on EPS

Other guidance keeps the NS and SS split and has a weak wave to north which pulls the boundary south for the possible waves later in the week.

Yea I liked the idea of separate threads and I do think its worth it...but the naming system is kinda AAAAHHHH. I was thinking like...Short range, medium Range, Long range or something like that.

Now that the full 0z suite is in I don't think we can say there was a southeast trend...what we saw was a tightening of the goalposts... the most amplified guidance (NAM/GFS) trended less so but the least amplified guidance (GGEM/Euro/UK) trended more.

But what did you do to deserve the snow? You live somewhere (assuming your location is accurate) that is like the snow anus of the region but you are like 15 miles away from places that get a LOT more snow then you....that seems like a level of apathy undeserving of snow. I drive over an HOUR to and from work EVERYDAY just for those 3-4 times a year I might be lucky enough to get more snow. That is devotion! fanaticism. I earn the snow. You choose to live somewhere that gets barely any snow while being a relative stones throw away from places that get a lot more then complain when climo happens??? I am kidding of course...and greatly exaggerating...but there is some nugget of truth to this. I know I would be unhappy and frustrated wrt snowfall living in and around Baltimore...so I moved up here and commute. And frankly I would rather, and probably will someday, move somewhere that gets even more snow then here. But I choose to live here so I don't complain about my climo. I accept that I don't get 100 inches a year like I want because I choose to live somewhere that doesn't get that much snow. Hopefully someday I will move to Colorado or northern NH where there is snow on the ground 5 months a year and I won't have to struggle to get snow (and yes even up here in a normal year snow is a struggle just less of one then where you are but I go plenty of winter months without any snow sometimes). So that first part was in jest...but at the same time I do kind of not understand people that choose to live somewhere with a median snowfall of like 10" and then act unhappy when they don't get much snow most years. My boss is one of those people...lives right on the bay east of Baltimore and is always upset that I get so much more snow...but stubbornly refuses to move west of town even though there is really nothing keeping him from doing so...it would even be closer to his job to commute from Reisterstown then where he does. ETA: I am not rooting against you. I always want to see both DC/Balt and myself get crushed. My favorite storms are when we are all puking snow and can share in it. That is why often when I am getting snow and I know the majority in here are not I go silent. I don't want to rub it in. What I said up there is not some kind of "give me all the snow and screw you lowlanders" thing. I truly hope we all get a ton of snow in the next 2 weeks. But climo is climo. There is a reason I average 40" and DC averages 14". And those reasons will always exist in every situation. I know...I didn't always live up here, I lived down near DC and constantly watched this area get all the snow...so I moved up here lol.

This captures the whole period...the GEGS has multiple waves over a 4 day period...you would think one would hit us lol