psuhoffman

@frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal. It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block. Ridge is suppressed. Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably.

Some members have a slower second wave. This frame captures the whole event across all members without any contamination with the 28/29 threat yet.

It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same.

I thought that’s where I was. Had both open and messed up. Ugh. Sorry.

Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread. Moving it here. I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in. If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks.

I think it was going to be huge. But it depends on this feature over Montreal that’s diving in. If that was about to phase with the amplifying upper level low coming right for us it was going to be a monster outcome. If however that was going to act to shear it shunt the h5 low southeast it might be a less significant event on that run. And I think it was the former but I needed to see one more panel to be sure. @WxUSAF curious what do you think?

Guys...wait until the upper level energy catches up to see what happens. ETA: the initial wave runs out ahead of its upper support and washes out but the upper level low looks just fine. Need to see what happens as that approaches the trough on the east coast before we decide. A surface storm could blow up quick along the coast somewhere as the upper levels catch up.

But for how much? Might need to check on the bus...

Another period that showed up in the cpc pattern analogs recently

True but that was a northerly outlier among the eps.

It happens in blocking. The extreme blocking part is what’s rare...a surface low that’s not amplifying getting forced south of east like that isn’t unusual in this setup. The storm around the 28/29 has more chance to amplify and gain latitude (some) on the coast.

If you expand out to a national level it’s not really compared to what a healthy west to east wave under a block can look like wrt geographic coverage. This run was perfect for us in every way but even there the temps were iffy at times for south of DC.

Funny you’re the one making the most noise

That was the point of my post a couple hours ago in the long range thread. Yes there will be hits somewhere from this setup. But the snowfall area won’t be as expansive as it should with a normal temp profile for late January in this pattern.

Facts can’t penetrate truthyness

if so thats ok. At this range...if you have a mix of just to your north, just to your south, and a few hits across guidance...that's pretty good. Were not in "details locked in" range yet.

You do know you are free to contribute however you want? Instead of complaining about how everyone else it discussing the medium/long range why don’t you analyze what you think will happen without using the models and show us how it’s done.

It hasn’t really liked that event much until recently. It was hinted at by the pattern and the EPS started really seeing it 48 hours ago but gefs us just starting to get the idea.

March 2015 and March 18 just off the top of my head.

Man get this relevant substantive scientific crap out of here.

Fair enough...but in my post I did say “this is DCs problem”. I was really focused on why the DC area has been REALLY struggling. It wasn’t as much for our locations.

Tell him to just sniff for the snow smell and head in that direction.

This falls under “2 things can be true”. I’m pretty sure some in the mid Atlantic (and not just the mountains) are going to get snow next week. I am also pretty sure that the warmer then they should be thermals will mean some get rain that would have had snow in a more historically typical thermal profile given the same exact setup.

I fully agree but would we feel that way if we lived in the DC UHI near sea level? Or if I was on the eastern shore like CAPE? I was being more general and region wide with that comment.

I don’t. I average 40. And yes we share a lot of common storms. But I usually do better. What did you get in late March 18? I got 15”. What did you get in December? I got 10”. And while it’s not common for me to get a big storm that you get blanked it’s common for me to get 1-3” marginal events (like the one before the big storm in Dec) where you get rain. And those add up. The math is what it is. I dunno what to tell you.