psuhoffman

No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year.

The euro has been flirting close to that idea for a while and just missing the final phase by a thread. But it’s been in the ensembles. Some crazy members in there. It’s not the majority but enough evidence for me to stick to my call.

Just let this go the way the pattern says it should one freaking time and let’s call it a winter. This was never supposed to be a good year. Yea it’s frustrating to underperform a -AO winter. But if we can just get one big one...end the drought then relax and whatever else comes after is gravy.

BLUE....BLUE BLUE BLUE

I hate to pull a JB but I’m going too...the progression I went with was made before the ops showed this at the surface and was based on what I felt was the most likely surface result given the longwave pattern. Then some runs started showing exactly that. So long as there is still some support I’m sticking to it. It still makes sense.

Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo. And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th.

Ok that was scary

The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated.

That’s still too far out to worry about what an op run says. We’re getting to the range where it’s time to take them more seriously for the first wave though.

Still early but I don’t like some of the signs at 120 on the cmc either. More ridging. Stronger NS lead wave. Not as bad as the gfs but a step towards that look v the euro and previous cmc.

This war between the cmc/euro v gfs can’t go on too much longer because the major differences wrt to how they handle the the ridge which leads to the different solutions is evident by only about 100 hours. One side has to cave soon.

Gfs doubled down on being NS dominant.

God forbid we ever get 2 good runs in a row The gfs (and icon) hasn’t looked good ever. So long as other guidance doesn’t move towards that solution.

Very early but gfs is pumping more ridge already at 120. That doesn’t help.

If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight???

You still got the bus???

Yes but the air masses have not had enough depth to the cold. It’s one thing to be chilly with a north wind during suppressive flow. It’s another for the cold to have enough depth to remain cold enough during the ridging and southerly flow you get ahead of any amplifying system.

Euro hinting at a 3rd weakening of the PV and possible wind reversal early February. If so we can probably discount a NAM state flip this season.

It’s not a cold look. But it could offer opportunities to get some snow.

Euro weeklies think we get plenty of opportunity in February. Snowiest run of the year as I’d expect given that mean @CAPE posted.

You missed the reference

But if they do make sure it’s with a color code for every half degree F so a 2c day 13 change looks like this huge crazy bust.

Pera looks like the euro only slightly further north. Enough to get DC into the goods. I’m still fringed. That’s how I roll up here. Gfs is alone in not washing out the lead wave. Expect it to cave

Yes but the only shutout was last year with a raging positive AO/NAO. Even 2018 there was that one wave that cut through the ridge and dropped 2-4” across the area. 2019 with just some very weak ridging up top we came close to a decent run. That on wave did cut across and drop 3-6” across the area. And we just missed one other to the north. I got 5” from that one. And early March a couple more waves hit my area but just missed DC. So let’s project that pattern with a little more NAO help. It would be warm at times when the SE ridge flexes. But it should also have opportunities for waves when it is suppressed.

It’s pretty much what I told Ralph to expect for Feb and totally acceptable Imo. There are 2 key differences between that and the failure of the blocking earlier. The first is simply time. It’s Feb. The waters are cooling. We’re starting with a colder base state. The second is the WPO. I still contend historically we have done better with the trough centered near the Aleutians not AK like that but this new pac base state is what it is. Look where the flow into our source regions in Canada is. Straight off the central pac firehose. This time the ridge west of the trough means the flow is off Siberia and across the Bering and AK. That’s not nearly as hostile to our source regions. The main pac firehose is directed across the south. The key there is the NAO. When it relaxes the SE ridge will flex. When the NAO goes through the periodic fluxes we’ve seen all cold season the ridge will be suppressed and the trough out west will cut under. But that is a mean of 50 members at a range where those details get washed out. Timing differences between when different members go through those fluctuations plus some members that probably lose the NAO completely and thus have a huge ridge in the east wash out attempts to show any trough in the east. But assuming the NAO remains negative it would be there at times and that’s a good look for Feb. if that’s how we roll the rest of winter I’ll take it. Weve snowed in much worse! ...of course recently we’ve not snowed in better so lol