psuhoffman

You aren’t going to like this but I’m not sure the gfs is going to cave. I still won’t bet against the euro when it’s rock steady over several days like this...and has the cmc on its side. But something keeps nagging me in the back of my mind. The way the gfs handles that western TPV is simpler. Less convoluted. Simply merges it with the strong NS wave diving into it. The euro on the other hand does this weird elongation and split to avoid that and instead through that odd progression ends up suppressing and squashing the NS SW. But 2 things bug me. 1 we are in a northern stream dominant regime. 2 the gfs progression is simpler and simple usually wins v convoluted. So yea the better guidance is on our side. But Nina climo, recent trends, and history of simple v convoluted setups are on the other side.

See that feature in Quebec on the euro. That was the piece of the tpv that came across in front and squashed the northern wave. On the gfs that instead phases with the northern wave. After that it’s a done deal both ways.

That’s because of the NS. Gfs still dropping too much energy from the TPV in western Canada into the western trough. That pumps ridging ahead of it and so the result is the NS wave on top can amplify. That becomes the show. The southern wave has no chance with an amplifying NS wave right on top and in front of it. The euro handles that tpv different. Elongates it down on top and squashed the NS wave. With that wave eliminated the southern stream wave has room to amplify.

Funny thing is it did at 6/12z and everyone kinda figured the fight was over but then it reverted at 18z and now has a buddy in the Icon.

@Ji it’s still about that TPV west of Hudson Bay. The GFS is elongating a piece of it and phasing a bit with the western trough which pumps ridging ahead of it. The euro is not and actually is elongating that tpv to the southeast which compresses the flow over top and prevents ridging ahead of the wave. The crazy thing is the difference in that feature diverges at only like 96 hours and it’s a pretty major longwave feature that one of them is handling completely wrong.

I’m just doing play by play not picking winners

Gfs is a baby step weaker with that NS wave v 18z but still WAY WAY WAY more ridge in front then the euro.

We’ll know before then. If the gfs holds and cmc and UK (it will be within range tonight) joins the gfs/Icon solution we know. The euro would then be on an island and we know how that ends. If the Cmc/UK look like the euro then it’s probably the gfs and Icon on a tangent.

If the NS wave holds together like the gfs/Icon show the southern wave is irrelevant. The NS wave that comes across in front of it wrecks the temps and there isn’t enough separation to recover. ETA; we would need the southern wave to slow down and allow cold to press behind the NS. Possible but we’re starting to get close enough that major changes need to happen sooner v later. The easier path here is less ridging and therefore a weaker NS wave like euro.

Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it...didn’t like the Icon at all. Way too GFS like. Northern wave too strong and wrecks the thermals and no separation to recover for the 2nd wave. Maybe some pity flakes at the end but that was not a progression with much upside.

I am cautiously optimistic. I do think the typical Nina central pac ridge will offer some resistance and we will ridge at times. But if the NAO stays negative which guidance suggests and the pac jet remains more relaxed with a ridge in the western N pac we should get opportunities. The NAO will suppress the SE ridge at times and so long as the pac ridge extends poleward it will prevent the pac from torching us again.

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!

But if the NAO you might -QBO

I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan. That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific .

I’d take 2014 over 96 and 03. More snow here spread out start to finish.

How much damage does it do to the mental stability of this forum that the first major guidance to come out every cycle is the WORST and that it’s the only global to release a full suite at 6/18z. The one model that saturates our consciousness the most is the worst one. ETA: of the major globals obviously not counting the JV squad stuff like JMA and NAVGEM

OMG when I first glanced at that before reading I thought the bottom image was the 144 EPS and was like CRAP then saw what you did. Don’t scare me like that. We need a freaking snowstorm so bad.

It’s there just super weak and sheared out like other guidance. But your point is 100% wrt to practical impacts on our ground prospects for snow just saying technically that wave is on all guidance. It’s simply the details of how amplified it is at question here.

True...that’s why we identified this as a good threat window. It still is. I really do think the gfs just had one of its many whacky runs. Just saying I’ll still feel better when we clear that threshold soon where we know it won’t be squashed and it’s just about nailing down details. Logical or not. The last couple years have been hard not to start looking over my shoulder for what’s going to go wrong next.

The GEFS does agree with the op wrt the stronger NS wave then suppressed southern wave solution for the 25/26. But it actually trended north with the threat around the 28. So much so that more misses are to the north then south with that wave. Which makes sense it would hurt more to miss one storm to the south and one to the north back to back. Lol.

That’s a NS wave though. I’m talking about the 3 southern stream waves back around the 9th/12th/14th and then the ones around the 18th/22nd. Every single southern stream dominant wave has been squashed since around New Years. NS waves are different Imo. Some of those have amplified but that’s not going to do us much good because without any real arctic cold around it’s highly doubtful a NS dominant wave can track under us. We need a southern stream wave to amplify and come at us from the south. They have all been shredded since the block set in.

I lasted a LOT longer then Ji!!!!

Sheet what we even doing here.

I just posted in the other thread about this...I still favor the euro for the reasons you said plus the cmc/geps is the tie breaker...but at the same time I won’t lie it bugs me to see all the southern stream waves next week suddenly get squashed at about the same range that’s been happening to every one of them since the NAO went strongly negative almost 3 weeks ago.

There are good reasons to doubt the gfs/gefs since its handling one feature differently then all other guidance. But...there is also this. Remember the first strong NAO block 2 weeks ago from 200+ hours out we were worried about a string of cutters. All 3 of those waves ended up weak pathetic squashed waves that didn’t get close to us. And they all shifted south at about 150-200 hours. Then...this is what the wave this week looked like when it was 8 days out. and then at day 6/7 it shifted to this... so one thing arguing for this gfs solution is the undeniable seasonal trend. Just laying all the cards on the table. Still think it’s wrong. But I’ve always been more worried about suppressed then a cutter so seeing it suddenly squash everything at the same magic threshold that’s happened to every wave since the NAO tanked 3 weeks ago wasn’t a warm fuzzy feeling either.