psuhoffman

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus. It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case.

You found time to post the suck ass gefs and used suckiest ass run of all the recent suck ones too.

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

It’s over

There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch. So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with.

Exactly. That was the point I was making earlier. We could very well win the lottery here. But how can anyone feel safe. The snow zone is so narrow a normally nominal shift threatens anyone even if you were in the dead bullseye the run before.

Everyone is fringed...it’s such a narrow area of good snow.

I’m not the judge of what is success. But better is better and worse is worse.

2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. This is more bad then what you showed is good. Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most. Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run.

If this does become a nw track where we need a front end thump one thing to keep an eye on is where the mid level winds are directed. We want the mid level wind max directed to the NE from the low along the warm front. If it’s a more compact circulation there won’t be as much WAA out ahead of it and by the time the precip arrives the mid levels are scorched. That’s not something the guidance will get right this far out. Remember the tease that mid January NW track storm gave us last year at this range.

This has to lol. If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good? That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck.

Yes but the bigger issue is that northern wave (even with the weaker sheared out version) damages the thermals and the faster southern wave doesn’t allow the cold to build back south in time. That and the but less high pressure in front offsets those other gains you are highlighting.

Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. @Ji We cannot waste this. This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often. I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!

@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.

We got plenty of airheads though

You getting on my bus?

Based on the pattern it argues suppression. But I’m starting to wonder if the pathetic thermals just can’t resist any southerly flow which is unavoidable ahead of a wave.

That’s always been “the one” imo but that doesn’t mean I didn’t want a double feature lol. Still time. We need less ridging in front. Just wish we had true cold and didn’t need so much to go perfect.

The setup argues south, the lack of cold has me doubting.

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

If you ignored the gfs the cmc and euro were pretty consistent for several runs until today

North of the CMC??? I honestly thought that cmc run was eye opening bad in how far north it was. Kinda hoped that would be an extreme outlier.

How bad was the UK? Hopefully not as far north as the CMC!

Better

@leesburg 04 My points are frustration at the larger picture and how much harder it's getting to get snow...not specific to this week. We may luck out still...its a really nice setup still...just need some south adjustment to the current consensus but I am also still seeing signs the coverage of snow will be much less then it should be historically given this setup. An amplifying southern wave sliding west to east under a block with an airmass that originated in the Arctic over the top...that should have a HUGE expansive WAA snow shield to its north and northeast and we shouldn't need to be sweating getting the exact perfect track to get some snow. It was already hard to get snow here...if every storm even in a really good pattern has some paltry narrow freaking area of snow it makes it even more likely we strike out even in good patterns, and you can forget it in mediocre or bad ones.