psuhoffman

Ok I’ll be the bad guy and say it...didn’t like the Icon at all. Way too GFS like. Northern wave too strong and wrecks the thermals and no separation to recover for the 2nd wave. Maybe some pity flakes at the end but that was not a progression with much upside.

I am cautiously optimistic. I do think the typical Nina central pac ridge will offer some resistance and we will ridge at times. But if the NAO stays negative which guidance suggests and the pac jet remains more relaxed with a ridge in the western N pac we should get opportunities. The NAO will suppress the SE ridge at times and so long as the pac ridge extends poleward it will prevent the pac from torching us again.

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!

But if the NAO you might -QBO

I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan. That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific .

I’d take 2014 over 96 and 03. More snow here spread out start to finish.

How much damage does it do to the mental stability of this forum that the first major guidance to come out every cycle is the WORST and that it’s the only global to release a full suite at 6/18z. The one model that saturates our consciousness the most is the worst one. ETA: of the major globals obviously not counting the JV squad stuff like JMA and NAVGEM

OMG when I first glanced at that before reading I thought the bottom image was the 144 EPS and was like CRAP then saw what you did. Don’t scare me like that. We need a freaking snowstorm so bad.

It’s there just super weak and sheared out like other guidance. But your point is 100% wrt to practical impacts on our ground prospects for snow just saying technically that wave is on all guidance. It’s simply the details of how amplified it is at question here.

True...that’s why we identified this as a good threat window. It still is. I really do think the gfs just had one of its many whacky runs. Just saying I’ll still feel better when we clear that threshold soon where we know it won’t be squashed and it’s just about nailing down details. Logical or not. The last couple years have been hard not to start looking over my shoulder for what’s going to go wrong next.

The GEFS does agree with the op wrt the stronger NS wave then suppressed southern wave solution for the 25/26. But it actually trended north with the threat around the 28. So much so that more misses are to the north then south with that wave. Which makes sense it would hurt more to miss one storm to the south and one to the north back to back. Lol.

That’s a NS wave though. I’m talking about the 3 southern stream waves back around the 9th/12th/14th and then the ones around the 18th/22nd. Every single southern stream dominant wave has been squashed since around New Years. NS waves are different Imo. Some of those have amplified but that’s not going to do us much good because without any real arctic cold around it’s highly doubtful a NS dominant wave can track under us. We need a southern stream wave to amplify and come at us from the south. They have all been shredded since the block set in.

I lasted a LOT longer then Ji!!!!

Sheet what we even doing here.

I just posted in the other thread about this...I still favor the euro for the reasons you said plus the cmc/geps is the tie breaker...but at the same time I won’t lie it bugs me to see all the southern stream waves next week suddenly get squashed at about the same range that’s been happening to every one of them since the NAO went strongly negative almost 3 weeks ago.

There are good reasons to doubt the gfs/gefs since its handling one feature differently then all other guidance. But...there is also this. Remember the first strong NAO block 2 weeks ago from 200+ hours out we were worried about a string of cutters. All 3 of those waves ended up weak pathetic squashed waves that didn’t get close to us. And they all shifted south at about 150-200 hours. Then...this is what the wave this week looked like when it was 8 days out. and then at day 6/7 it shifted to this... so one thing arguing for this gfs solution is the undeniable seasonal trend. Just laying all the cards on the table. Still think it’s wrong. But I’ve always been more worried about suppressed then a cutter so seeing it suddenly squash everything at the same magic threshold that’s happened to every wave since the NAO tanked 3 weeks ago wasn’t a warm fuzzy feeling either.

Cold doesn’t cause suppression. I was in New England and it was snowing near 0 once. The flow suppresses. Often the two are related and correlated because a suppression means the flow is from the north typically and that in winter usually means cold. But if it’s warm all the way to the Arctic circle like now...it doesn’t matter what direction our air is coming from. But a north flow will still press a storm south. I’m simplifying this a little and leaving out things like shear and compression but that’s the general idea.

Fixed

You mean it didn’t...I’m sure it will in 2 hours!

What is this BS!!!!! Closed upper low tracking south of us in prime climo and rain to upstate NY!!!!

But it gives SC a historic snowstorm. We are all fine with getting absolutely no snow out of this whole pattern so they can get a blizzard right? Right...

I think each wave starts further south. But the 3rd wave has some room to amplify and gain latitude on the coast. Not a lot. Depends how it interacts with the NS. But that’s the only one that imo could push snow north after it starts east of the mountains.

They all have it but they shear it out running into the block way faster then the gfs. That preserves our temps but also leaves room/energy for wave 2 to amplify. It’s a win win. A stronger NS front runner is a lose lose. Worse temps and weaker 2nd wave.

It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out. I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible.

It’s still taking too much energy with the front runner wave which messes up everything behind it. Doubt it’s right. But who knows we are on an epic run of fail.