psuhoffman

I am NOT the only one who called for a likely colder period towards the end of this season. Several others noted that in their seasonal forecast or have been calling for it for weeks. Just pointing out that some long range calls are very low confidence. This one, IMO, has higher confidence.

There seems to be some kind of stigma about March snowfall...I've tried to fight it but its hopeless. I do think people need to know their local climo, there are places in the southern 1/3 of this forum where the climo really does degrade significantly after about Feb 20. If I lived down in the lower Delmarva or the northern neck I probably would check out by March 1. But 95 where most in here live has until about March 15 before the spring wall hits. Where we are up here its more like the first week of April.

We certainly could get a big snow the last week of Feb, but if I had to bet on a specific week for a warning level snowfall I would take the first week of March...might even take the second week of March after that, then the last week of Feb as my 3rd option. These things often take time to set up and establish and beat down the SER. Maybe we charge right in and get a hit immediately but that's not how most go. 2018 it took 3 weeks of blocking before we finally got a big snowstorm and it came just before the clock hit midnight on our chances. The pattern evolution kinda reminds me a little of that year right now. Before anyone panics about "but it didn't snow until March 20" remember we had several really good threats starting with a storm around March 1 that year but for various reasons they all didn't come together.

Honestly, from weeks ago saying we were probably going to have another cycle of -AO/NAO and a colder period late Feb and March was one of the easier long range calls that could be made imo, for all the reasons I laid out previously. And I am not averse to saying "I have no idea what is going to happen" when I don't which is often wrt long range stuff. Actually kinda surprised it took so long for some to come to this conclusion (I guess they needed to see it on the guidance first) but glad we seem to be getting a consensus forming now.

You must be at the base of Iron Hill? And 300 feet definitely makes a difference...The ridge I am on has about a 250 ft difference on one side and 350 on the other. I am about 1050 and the neighborhood on one side is at about 800 ft and on the other about 750. In marginal setups when the temperature is close to freezing it can make a huge difference. Earlier this winter I got 4" and the neighborhood below got about 1.5". There was a storm a few years ago I got 3" and there was only a slushy coating below. Obviously in a cold storm it makes less difference but we have not had a lot of those lately...especially on the coastal plain.

This doesn't sound like the best idea for your mental health!

They’re warmer because week 3 shifted warmer. The rest is too far out to care and often just tries to to resume a status quo enso look. They keep teasing a faster flip then backing off. I think we do get a cold shot for a few days around Feb 10-13 but then warm up again. Any permanent flip is closer to or after Feb 20 and too far out for guidance to see yet. What it does see is the AO starting to go negative again. Without as hostile a PDO the warmth is on borrowed time once that happens.

Because it’s still rushing. We probably don’t go left sustained cold until Feb 20 or later.

They typically coincide with a period of -AO

It's just a few days, calm down. We are going to have a 2-3 week milder and more hostile for snow pattern...but we are already tracking possible longshot snow threads in the middle of this "worse" pattern and already seeing the signs of the flip back cold at the end. This is so much better than recent years when we spent the majority of winter in a no hope shutout looking pattern.

If you are where I think you are...your elevation is about 25-50 feet. This is actually lower than much of the Delmarva south of you. There is a really awful zone in northern DE south of the fall line to the canal linking the two bays. I've observed this area... warmth seems to come up the Chesapeake Bay and continue NE and links to the same effect coming up the DE bay that used to affect me when I lived in NJ. You live in a regional snowfall minimum. What's worse is those places well south of you on the DELMARVA probably don't get more snow than you...but they don't get less and they live geographically far from the areas that get a lot more...to their west a huge body of water divides them and they have to go far north. You are really close, only about 15-20 miles from places that get almost double your snowfall which makes it hurt even more. Trust me I've lived places like that and I know the pain...but it's not going to change, its due to geographic factors that will cause you to get less snow in most storms than places around you.

He probably had no idea and just came in and posted... Horrible what happened...nothing else to say really.

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time! In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!

Also seeing the trough showing up again on the central pacific. If that combines with a -AO again I don’t care what h5 says the cold will press east.

To elaborate my confidence is based on 3 things. 1. the analogs all suggested a colder snowier period between Feb 20-March 20 2. The AO had been in a very consistent cycle over the last 6 months and if you time it out it should be going negative again by Feb 20. Persistence here matches the analogs 3. When we bet a period of severe -AO/NAO like we had in early January it usually cycles again one more time after a relax. It doesn’t surprise me that guidance is now starting to hint at what “should” be coming.

I see nothing that’s changed my mind that we get colder again around Feb 20

Without blocking storms tend to trend NW. With blocking not so much. We saw both phenomena this season.

If it looks like that 48 hours out I’ll feel confident….. That I’ll get another big snow and 95 might get a slushy inch. JK….kinda

In fairness it trended warmer for the first 10 days of Feb from 1-2 weeks ago. But now fits a more logical progression

So should they wait for the next shift before issuing warnings?

That sucks...the phone.

2016 there was a 2” snow from a coastal that didn’t amplify much. Was a shame. Could have been a big storm but it was weak. 2017 Was the sleet bomb yes. How often has Baltimore had a 3” snow in any month lately? Baltimore has had 3” and 5” the same amount in March as Feb since 2009! We had this debate about 4 years ago and I wasted a few hours breaking every snow event down by week and found that the chances of 3”/6”/9” events are pretty steady through the first 2 weeks of March. Also our weekly average snow is pretty steady. The chances of getting a 6” snow are really low in any given week but aren’t much lower the first week of March than now. What does go down after Feb 20 are the chances of a 12”+ event. The notion that early March is harder to snow just isn’t supported by the data. This is perception bias. Yes most of our threats in March fail. End up too warm. But guess what, that’s true in February also! But in early March for some reason people attribute it to it being to late instead of the synoptic reasons it failed. Look at last week. We just had a marginal setup fail in DC and Baltimore and snow on the NW elevated portions of this forum. If that had happened early March you would have said it was because it was too late. I know because in 2019 almost the exact same setup happened and it snowed in almost the exact same areas in the same amounts but everyone acted like the fail was because it was early March when the issue was synoptic. The wave tracked too far NW which can happen anytime. Or think of Feb 8 2021. A perfect track coastal failed because of warm boundary temps. I got 6” here but anyone without elevation was too warm. But in 2013 when that happened we blamed it on being too late. It’s perception bias. We fail because it’s too warm most of the time even in January and February.

What are you talking about, Baltimore had a snowstorm in March 7 years in a row from 2013 to 2019. The last 5 years weren’t good but those were mostly warm winters and 2022 you missed a 3-6” snow by like 10 miles.

On paper. In the real world where it matters they are 17-2 and in the Super Bowl for the 5th time in 6 years. I’m not disagreeing that if both teams play to their talents top potential the Eagles should win. And there is a universe where the eagles get out to an early lead and steamroll them. But coaching and QB play can make up for a lot. KC has great coaching on both sides of the ball and a great QB. They do this all the time. The Eagles were more talented 2 years ago, had a 10 point lead at half time, our QB had a great game, but Andy schooled out D coordinator on the second half, found a flaw in our scheme and exploited it over and over with misdirection to get guys wide open on 3 straight drives. I’m not gonna underestimate them.

Sorry the eagles copyrighted that strategy