psuhoffman

That NS wave really makes this harder then it should be in this setup. And that’s the kind of crap you can’t see from range. But even with a weaker solution it still damages the thermals ahead of the southern wave. If that NS wave simply didn’t exist that would be a really simple WAA snow setup. This before the NS wave is still pathetic for an airmass that was directly from the Arctic but it’s decent. It’s enough. but look what the flow under the NS wave did... we’ve lost the mid levels before the SS wave is even approaching. Now we have a double bind. We need cold to press back in but we also need an amplifying wave to get good moisture. That double bind is why we see such a limited scope to the snow on most runs and why this won’t be the kind of expansive snowstorm it could be in this setup if the NS hasn’t wrecked the thermal profile in front. It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave.

Way less ridging this run

Truth is both north and south are equally a threat depending on how it interacts with the TPV. No phasing to pump ridging and it could get suppressed. Too much interaction and it could cut. And with such a relatively small snow zone it doesn’t take much either way. The one good thing is when it’s not easy to decide which is the bigger risk (north v south) that often means you’re in a pretty good spot.

There is a tpv lobe coming across Canada. I remember a wave early March 2014 that was supposed to be a big snow in PA then got suppressed by a tpv lobe coming across Canada. No two situations are the same but how that interacts has a huge bearing. Runs that partially phase that feature with the NS wave go north. Runs that have no interaction it acts to suppress.

Yep...slight shifts take you from bullseye to fringed when the scope is so narrow lol. Obviously I want it to snow in my yard but if I’m going to get fringed I’d rather it be to the south so at least DC finally gets a hit so I’ll take south.

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus. It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case.

You found time to post the suck ass gefs and used suckiest ass run of all the recent suck ones too.

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

It’s over

There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch. So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with.

Exactly. That was the point I was making earlier. We could very well win the lottery here. But how can anyone feel safe. The snow zone is so narrow a normally nominal shift threatens anyone even if you were in the dead bullseye the run before.

Everyone is fringed...it’s such a narrow area of good snow.

I’m not the judge of what is success. But better is better and worse is worse.

2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. This is more bad then what you showed is good. Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most. Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run.

If this does become a nw track where we need a front end thump one thing to keep an eye on is where the mid level winds are directed. We want the mid level wind max directed to the NE from the low along the warm front. If it’s a more compact circulation there won’t be as much WAA out ahead of it and by the time the precip arrives the mid levels are scorched. That’s not something the guidance will get right this far out. Remember the tease that mid January NW track storm gave us last year at this range.

This has to lol. If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good? That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck.

Yes but the bigger issue is that northern wave (even with the weaker sheared out version) damages the thermals and the faster southern wave doesn’t allow the cold to build back south in time. That and the but less high pressure in front offsets those other gains you are highlighting.

Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. @Ji We cannot waste this. This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often. I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!

@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.

We got plenty of airheads though

You getting on my bus?

Based on the pattern it argues suppression. But I’m starting to wonder if the pathetic thermals just can’t resist any southerly flow which is unavoidable ahead of a wave.

That’s always been “the one” imo but that doesn’t mean I didn’t want a double feature lol. Still time. We need less ridging in front. Just wish we had true cold and didn’t need so much to go perfect.

The setup argues south, the lack of cold has me doubting.

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?