psuhoffman

I am honestly not sure what you took as an attack...but I am sorry I upset you.

Look at what the storm for Friday looked like when it was 150 hours away. There is a VERY predictable and repetitive pattern this season of guidance wanting to phase systems with the NS to our west and cut things into the blocking...and it has never actually happened. We have missed a few perfect track systems because of lack of cold, we have missed a couple storms because they phased off the coast too late, and we missed a few storms that got suppressed. They have not been cutting like that despite what guidance shows 150-200 hours away.

Oh look guidance adjusting south in the day 5-7 period...SHOCKED. You mean storms don't just cut up into 1045 high pressure systems with a -5 stdv AO. BTW earlier today out of curiosity I was cycling back several days on the guidance and at that range they showed this storm upon us now (that might even end up south of some of us) cutting and almost in the exact same way they were showing the system next week...by over emphasizing the northern stream and phasing too much with the TPV in the upper midwest...and you could see them adjust and do less and less and less each run until it ended up a wave going under us. Not shocked to see signs of the same adjustment.

is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo.

don't let it affect you she is like that to EVERYONE

I think wave 2 comes far enough north that there is some overlap between the southern boundary of snowfall with wave 1 and the northern boundary with wave 2. But there will likely be a bit of a minimum in between the two maxes from the waves...and yea there is a risk that is near your area. I think wave 2 juices up some though and might give a late save.

They make simulations which meteorologists use to help make forecasts. And a lot of those recent snowfall forecasts have also busted pretty badly in his location. I think the tone of his post was fair.

The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation.

100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away.

This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations.

well...if that is wave 1 screw wave 2. DC can have all of wave 2 then.

These are all just waves along the boundary that has a ton of potential energy due to the extreme temperature contrast

That much!!!??? what else is new

yea I noticed the setup is significantly better for next week at the end of the run. Hard to keep up with the details of all the different threats right now.

It wasn't meant as an attack on you...and I apologize if it came off that way. But I guess I was saying I understand the less enthusiastic tone coming from most of this forum compared to your excitement. If I was living in Baltimore, and I think of lot of them feel this way, I wouldn't give a crap about models or tracking or ANYTHING except getting some freaking snow on my lawn right freaking now at this point. They have waited years to get a decent snowfall and have been nothing but teased endlessly this winter. You love the chase and that is awesome...I love the chase also but at some point there has to be a payoff or it gets frustrating imo. We have had a payoff up here. I was just pointing out that I hope they get a hit very soon, hopefully this week, so the mood in here doesn't get depressing.

It's a pretty thin and high up layer...so at least when it does mix its probably sleet/snow mix. That looks like several inches of snow and a significant sleet mixed in there also...which can be fun. It's better then a couple inches of snow and then dry slot or freezing rain imo. There is also the chance the NAM is being to aggressive with that but just saying I don't think the NAM is a complete disaster for DC but if it can be just 1 degree too warm in the mid layers...youre looking at a great THUMP.

I don't know what to make of it honestly. I was never buying into the idea that this was a 12-18" snowstorm like the euro was indicating 48 hours ago. That seemed off. I said that once or twice but I didn't want to take a crap all over the party so I mostly kept it to myself. But I was expecting it to come back down to earth and show a more reasonable 4-8" type storm. But now it has swung to the other extreme. The GFS has certainly been less jumpy with this but it has been subtly trending south also. I still think what I did several days ago...that this has 4-8" snow written all over it...but where exactly the focal point for that ends up is the catch. I guess I favor the further north guidance but seeing the NAM/Euro so far south with the more significant second wave really is troublesome. Hopefully as I am typing this the NAM trends north a little and that would make me feel better about tossing the euro.

huh? When did I make any prediction? There was a post that the EPS was less suppressive. I made the observation that it trended south with both waves. It did. Someone kind of questioned that so I posted proof. I made no prediction at all.

I have deduced that those stormvista max res EPS snowfall maps are often so much higher then wxbell on the southern edge of snowfall zones is because it counts freezing rain as 10-1 snowfall. People didn't notice but last year the wxbell maps stopped doing that when they updated and that is why the ensemble means on wxbell arent as crazy stupid ridiculous high as they used to be.

That's not as bad as psu made it out to be This is a big reduction for 6 hours. But you really want to cry to back to a run 48 hours ago when it had 1” qpf up to the PA line and ~1.2 qpf for you.

We have had a pretty good winter up here so far...but you have to realize a LOT of people in this forum have been screwed over time after time after time and are sitting way below climo for this date despite the "great" pattern and "fun tracking" and until they get an actual flush hit with good snow on the ground the fun of this is gone. I totally get it. We need a big hit for the DC/Baltimore area STAT because all these threats without any payoff just gets stressful and old after a while. I really hope one of the next few waves becomes a real genuine thump hit for DC/Baltimore so it doesn't get ugly in here.

The 18z EPS still ended up south and weaker with both waves and a significant decrease, again for the 8th straight run, in snow mean from previous run.

Since these are similar boundary waves might be pertinent to consider the NAM just schooled EVERYTHING else on the wave to our north today... it was well north of all other guidance at just 24 hours lead time and scored the coup. Something to consider once this gets inside short range...wave 1 is almost there but wave 2 is still not.

There is a limit to how far south the cold can get given the latitude at which the wave is crossing at. The cold can't penetrate south of the actual wave since that will ride the boundary...and to press the wave south...force it to sink, at that point there is so much suppression you are squashing it and that is what is happening now.

That’s pretty temporary