psuhoffman

I was worried I might lose some snowpack today but temps only made it to the mid 30s and had cloud cover and now they are dropping again so...didn't really make a dent.

BTW...would be nice if you ever just once offered some concrete evidence for this slander against everyone who works in NWP including some on this board that you continually puke all over this forum!

I am rooting for you guys with this one. This is your turn I hope.

Yes... you are right the models are programmed not to attempt to produce the most accurate simulation each run, but to intentionally jump all over the place and show every possible outcome so that we can...I dunno your motive here is a little unclear...screw with snow weenies? And...they do this because EVERY weather agency in the world, public and private, even ones that compete with each other, encompassing tens of thousands of people, are all in bed as part of some HUGE conspiracy to...again your motive is kinda weak here...I guess they just recruit a bunch of people who have no morals and want to fool the public and screw with snow weenies and they all come together across dozens of countries and agencies for that goal! I am so glad we have you to shine a light on this.

@stormtracker Yea except this is still our mean snowfall on the GEFS which is actually a slight improvement over the last run. I still think it would take some monumental bad luck to not score at least one flush hit from one of these waves. There are going to be like 5 or 6 (maybe more) opportunities in the next 2-3 weeks. But yea...the luck near DC and Baltimore has been so bad lately I totally get the frustration. I really hope this first wave holds...and gets a flush hit for DC/Baltimore so we can relax some and enjoy the pattern once the ice is broken.

Our window is as the TPV slides across to our north. But we need the western trough to cut UNDER it. Instead the Euro has it hang out and wait for the TPV to exit then it cuts. Unfortunately if the western trough doesn't kick east and hangs out until after the TPV exits there is a gap there for it to amplify to our west and cut before the blocking pattern reloads. It's way too far out though to worry about yet. There will be a lot of cold in the way and my gut says it adjusts south because of that. This is the type of setup we dont need PERFECT to get a result.

do you want arctic air or snow? In this pattern the storms will be riding the boundary so you can't really get both. If we end up deep into the arctic air it will be dry. We want to be along the cold boundary not deep into it. Granted...the fail scenario is if somehow these waves all continue to miss us north or south...that would be epic someone in here did something awful to offend the snow gods kind of stuff...but still the solution to our problems is not to see the arctic air settle in over top of us if we want to get storms.

NOTHING has ended up as far north as it looked at 150-200 hours out this winter...so I am fine with that look right now. Remember the storm that might miss us mostly to the south this week was mostly an ice storm a few days ago.

Where does DT live again?

@Rvarookie What part of this "confuses" you? The euro has shown a distinct decrease in QPF and snowfall for 90% of everyone in this forum the last 5 runs in a row. That is a pretty bad trend when we are this close to the event.

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves? I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days. Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.

This is not heading the right way unfortunately...

Naw I think this one belongs to DC. We will get some snow up here but this is not the right kind of system for us to max out. Boundary temps aren't marginal so our advantage there is muted. The dominant surface flow during the precipitation is out of the north, that is not an upslope flow for us and its going to eat away at the moisture feed (which is really weak to begin with) along the northern fringes. This is not the kind of storm where our local meso climo helps very much. Doesn't mean we can't win...again if the whole boundary and WAA moisture feed were to shift north we would...but it wont be because of our local climo advantages this time. This has a lot in common with the WAA waves that can and do often fringe us up here. I am ok with that...and have set my bar accordingly. Expecting 2-4" maybe 3-5" up here probably at this time with more south of us. The second wave gaining just enough amplitude and lifting a bit north is probably our best chance to bust high on that. It's still far enough out in time that an error very within the normal goalposts puts us in play there.

I'm not even part of "all" anymore. sad sad day lol

@high risk something to keep in mind as this gets inside 30 hours or so....the NAM won that fight with all other guidance yesterday regarding the wave today to our north. Everything else that showed a nice snow event in central PA into N NJ and NYC area busted and the NAM was right taking that north.

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year.

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you.

Omg yea. Technically 1994 was only mean snowfall up here but the local coop had snowcover from the first week of January until March 20 and at one point it was about 15” of half snow half ice! That would have been awesome.

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation. But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run. So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.

@mappy sorry I just saw the other posts...I was not trying to pile on, and your comment was 100% accurate going by the snow map...I was just trying to point out that in reality if the UK ACTUALLY was accurate it probably would be a 6-7" snow for us and others along the PA line.

It's about 5.5 qpf for our area....that is very likely about 6 if not 7" of snow with the ratios we will get up here. I do think the characterization of a general 6-10 storm for the PA line south on the UK was accurate, bad map reading aside.

I have never used the ignore feature but I am getting close

My victory bar for this up here is 4". Just freshen up the snowpack ahead of all the ice coming over the weekend. Fail is less then 2".

EXACTLY

There is some support in the data that for DC and Baltimore the odds and frequency of BIG snowstorms is increasing but the frequency of just snow in general is declining. That makes perfect sense actually. More big storms increases the odds we catch some of them by chance. But a little bit of warming is going to hurt us more often with a lot of the typical marginal snow events that were common in DC and Baltimore. When I did my every warning event at BWI case study a few years ago...when it came to the 5-10" type events it was a VAST majority that were near 32 degrees and featured some mixing. This kind of a data tagline was VERY common.... a 6" storm from 1.1 qpf with a high that day of 35 and a low of 31. I mean...you can figure out from that what kind of storm that was...and what happens if you add say 2 degrees to that exact event?