psuhoffman

I think the signal for a significant event there is real. I was off by 3 days from 3 weeks lol. It’s really a redo of the setup Thursday but with a slightly more amplified wave and a slightly more relaxed flow over the NE. But yea we can’t lock in any details yet. It could end up Richmond or Boston...or maybe it’s finally our turn.

Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months.

March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block.

Looks like euro control run

Thanks for the reminder lol. The eps has a tendency to skew towards the mean for any given pattern. In fairness when storms actually hit we do beat those maps. When we get on a heater some years we crush those 10 day means. But it’s been a long time we’ve been underperforming patterns.

When even dr no says yes...if we still fail...

Ya you have just been a while. That’s typically when they really happen.

I’m getting pretty frustrated but I’ll never stop tracking.

Signs increasing the NAO tanks again in 10-15 days.

It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US.

Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range

@losetoa6 I got 30” from one of those 2010 storms on 1.5 qpf!

That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias.

GEPS loves that threat too. Gefs is more north (good!!!!!)

This is the mean for the whole storm. You need to use the 72 hour snow mean to capture it all because there are some timing differences and some members have the secondary stall and linger.

Just once...

You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol

At least some people still know what's up

That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled.

Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key. Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north. I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm. Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48.

Dude look how that wave has been trending the last 48 hours. Then look where every storm has trended the last month. Storms that were cutting so far north we didn’t even give them a thought at day 8-10 ended up suppressed south of us! Just pray by the time we get to 100 hours were not looking at another NC snow threat.

Simple isn’t an option. Simple would be a wave running under us with a nice WAA snow shield. That cannot happen because there isn’t enough cold. Look at the thermals I posted last night from the icon as the wave gets into the plains. It has no snow shield to it’s NE again because there is no tight thermal gradient to focus along. You can go 250 miles and only get a 5-10 degree change because it’s 28 degrees all the way up into Canada where it should be 10 degrees. Because of this we will likely continue to see storms where there is little to no WAA snow shield to the northeast of them. We need some kind of dynamic system that amplifies in just the right spot and given the blocking that’s going to involve some form of west track transfer hybrid system. And yes that’s the complicated way and we prefer simple but without the overrunning option simple is gone. I guess you could consider tonight simple except the snow shield is sooooo narrow because of the factors above its not really simple and it’s pretty limited in potential and scope.

If the Mjo gets into 8 with a -AO and we still fail lol. We’ve been fighting a somewhat hostile Pac base state. Although I think some are using that as a comfort blanket honestly because the pac forcing has been mostly blah and muted. Definitely not good but not awful. And we’ve overcome a similar pac with a -AO/NAO before. But if we get the pac into a favorable forcing state in Feb and its still not cold enough the excuses start to run out. BTW when I say forcing I don’t mean the longwave pattern necessarily. I have my suspicious the typical response is being altered somewhat. But that altered response if somewhat permanent is irrelevant. If the forcing takes on a typical nino phase 8 look and we still see a hostile longwave pattern....well at least we can eliminate the “we need the pac to cooperate” posts.

It’s a living